2014: The Election That Changed India (54 page)
Read 2014: The Election That Changed India Online
Authors: Rajdeep Sardesai
Tags: #Literary Collections, #Essays, #Political Science, #General
Source: National Election Tracker surveys and National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
Question asked: After this election/the 2014 Lok Sabha election, who would you prefer as the next Prime Minister of India? (Do not offer any name and record the exact answer and consult PM codes for coding.)
The BJP trailed the Congress in terms of vote share before Modi was declared as PM candidate, and overtook it in the months following the announcement.
| BJP’s vote lead over Congress (percentage points) | |
| July 2013 (Survey) | -1 |
| January 2014 (Survey) | +7 |
| March 2014 (Survey) | +10 |
| May 2014 (Actual) | +11.8 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
Gender divide over Modi: Women supporters of Modi were much less than men supporters.
| Gender | Want Narendra Modi as PM (%) | Want Rahul Gandhi as PM (%) |
| Men | 41 | 16 |
| Women | 30 | 13 |
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by CSDS
The BJP’s relative unpopularity among women voters continues: 29 per cent women voted for BJP as opposed to 33 per cent men. In 2009, the difference between the two was two percentage points; had only women voted, the BJP may have fallen short of majority.
| Year | Women–Men voting gap for BJP (percentage points) | Women–Men voting gap for Congress (percentage points) |
| 1996 | -3 | +1 |
| 1998 | -5 | +3 |
| 1999 | -3 | +5 |
| 2004 | -1 | +1 |
| 2009 | -2 | +1 |
| 2014 | -4 | 0 |
Source: National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
Modi was preferred as PM among the young voters much more than among the elderly.
| Age Group (years) | Want Narendra Modi as PM (%) | Want Rahul Gandhi as PM (%) |
| 18–25 | 42 | 16 |
| 26–35 | 38 | 15 |
| 36+ | 32 | 14 |
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by CSDS
The BJP’s lead over the Congress in terms of votes secured was least among the elderly voters aged above 55 years (eight percentage points) and greatest among the youngest voters aged between 18 and 22 years (nineteen percentage points).
| Age group | Vote for BJP | Vote for Cong |
| 18–22 | 36 | 17 |
| 23–25 | 33 | 20 |
| 26–35 | 33 | 20 |
| 36–45 | 30 | 18 |
| 46–55 | 30 | 20 |
| 56+ | 27 | 20 |
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by CSDS
Dissatisfaction with the UPA government kept rising over the last three years.
Source: State of the Nation survey, 2011, and National Election Tracker surveys, 2013–14, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
Anti-incumbency also kept increasing.
Source: State of the Nation survey, 2011, and National Election Tracker surveys, 2013–14, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
UPA-II was extremely unpopular compared to the two previous governments.
| Year/Government | Should the Central govt get another chance? | |
| YES | NO | |
| 2004/NDA | 48 | 30 |
| 2009/UPA-I | 54 | 45 |
| 2014/UPA-II | 23 | 54 |
Source: National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
Price rise, corruption and a desire for development seem to have been the reasons for strong anti-incumbency against the UPA-II government.
Source: National Election Tracker surveys, 2013–14, and National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
Price rise perhaps made the BJP overtake the Congress for the first time among the poor.
Source: National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
UPA-II was seen as a very corrupt government by 45 per cent of the respondents, up from 34 per cent in 2013.
Source: State of the Nation survey, 2011, and National Election Tracker surveys, 2013–14 , conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
Some more points based on Election Commission of India (ECI) figures:
Out of the 432 seats which AAP contested, in 414 the party’s candidates secured less than one-sixth of the total votes polled, hence losing their security deposit.
AAP candidates secured less than one per cent of the total votes polled in as many as 265 seats. In other words, in a little over three out of five seats that the AAP contested, the party could not even secure one per cent of the votes.
| Number of seats where AAP vote share was . . . | |
| Less than 16.66% (lost security deposits) | 414 |
| Less than 10 per% | 411 |
| Less than 5% | 397 |
| Less than 2% | 355 |
| Less than 1% | 265 |
| Less than NOTA vote share | 260 |
ECI data recomputed by CSDS Data Unit
Some more points based on survey figures:
Narendra Modi’s popularity (people’s preference as PM) was greatest among the youngest voters (43 per cent) and relatively much less among the elderly voters (30 per cent). Modi’s lead over Rahul Gandhi was also the widest among the youngest voters (29 percentage points) and narrowed down among elderly voters (17 percentage points).
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by CSDS
Congress allies: BPF (in Assam), RJD (in Bihar, Jharkhand), JMM (in Jharkhand), NCP (in Maharashtra, Bihar), BVA (in Maharashtra), IUML (in Kerala), RSP (in Kerala), SJD (in Kerala), KCM (in Kerala), RLD (in Uttar Pradesh), Mahan Dal (in Uttar Pradesh), JKNC (in J&K)
BJP allies: Shiv Sena (in Maharashtra), RPI-A (in Maharashtra), SWP (in Maharashtra), RSPP (in Maharashtra), TDP (in Andhra Pradesh), SAD (in Punjab), LJP (in Bihar), RLSP (in Bihar), Apna Dal (in Uttar Pradesh), PMK (in Tamil Nadu), MDMK (in Tamil Nadu), DMDK (in Tamil Nadu), RSPB (in Kerala), Independent (in Kerala), HJC (in Haryana),
NPF (in Nagaland), NPP (in Meghalaya), AINRC (in Puducherry)
Left: CPI(M), CPI, AIFB, RSP (except in Kerala)