A Brief History of the Future: A Brave and Controversial Look at the Twenty-First Century (28 page)

History will thus drive the integration of collective intelligences into a universal intelligence; it will also be endowed with a collective memory that will preserve and accumulate its knowledge. By its very nature, it will last at least as long as the human race.

Universal intelligence will even be able to conceive of machines in its own service, defending the common good on its behalf.

Universal intelligence may next bring about an intelligence peculiar to the species, a
hyperintelligence
that will act in its own interests, distinct from the interests of
the universal intelligence of a single generation of human beings. Finally, at the ultimate stage of evolution, we might witness (we may already be witnessing) a
hyperintelligence of the living
, of which humanity will be but an infinitesimal component. This hyperintelligence of the living would no longer act solely in the interests of the human species.

And there the singular history of
Homo sapiens sapiens
would achieve consummation. Not in annihilation, as in the first two waves of the future, but simply in being overtaken.

The Individual Result of Hyperdemocracy: Essential Goods, Including
Good Times

Hyperdemocracy will not attain only collective objectives. It will also allow each human being to achieve personal goals, unattainable through the market alone: to enjoy access to essential goods, in particular to
good times.

Here I call
essential goods
all those to which each human being must have right of access in order to lead a worthwhile life, to participate in the common good. Among these essential goods are access to knowledge, housing, food, health care, work, water, air, security, freedom, equity, the networks, respect, the right to leave a place or to stay, compassion, solitude, living simultaneous passions, parallel truths, being surrounded by friends and family during one’s last days.

This will lead to the suppression of any penalty that
involves the loss of civil rights, or is violent, or involves incarceration.

The chief essential good will thus be access to “good times.” Times when everyone will watch not the spectacle of others’ lives, but the reality of his or her own; in which everyone will be able to choose his model of success, to let his talents spread their wings, including those of whose existence we are as yet unaware. “Good times” will then mean living free, long, and young — and not in a hurry to “profit,” as in the mercantile order.

These two goals — individual and collective — of hyperdemocracy will nourish one another: humankind’s universal intelligence will increase with good times, which will be at everyone’s disposal, and in return universal intelligence will create the conditions for everybody to enjoy “good times.” Hyperdemocracy will function only among people enjoying access to essential goods.

Humankind’s common good will be all the stronger as increasing numbers of people gain access to essential goods. Just as a research center has an interest in its researchers’ discoveries, just as the speakers of one language need those who speak it to be as numerous as possible, so each human being will want others to be in full possession of the means to achieve their dignity and their freedom, in other words to be in good health and well educated. It will be in humanity’s interest that each human be happy to be alive; altruism will be to everyone’s benefit. Being transhuman will become rational.

For long decades, super-empire will try to prevent the birth of hyperdemocracy. Some masters of the market, most of them hypernomads, will seek to undermine hyperdemocracy’s values, hinder its attempts to create new institutions, and liquidate its players. They will denounce transhuman hypernomads as traitors. They will instill fear in them and attempt to corrupt them in an effort to make them change camps. Then, sensing the power of the wave, they will turn to specialist businesses in an effort to commercialize “relational nomadic objects” — companion robots, virtual fraternities, three-dimensional games simulating altruism, ersatz fair trade. They will sell what they too will call a “good time” — vacation time or time produced by nomadic objects that can be replicated on the assembly line. They will put “self-monitors” — supposedly designed to measure relational capacity — on the market. They will also invent relational prostheses and then clones — “artificial brothers” who make it possible for the user to have a stockpile of organs all to himself. The “happiness” of the clone will lie in helping the cloned one to survive.

Furthermore, some leaders of religious movements, theologians, gurus will attempt (are already attempting) to claim hyperdemocracy’s concepts as their own. They will base their businesses on charity, mastery of time and meaning, costlessness, brotherhood, universal intelligence, “good times,” the common good.

Some scientists will explain (they are already explaining) that inability to find a meaning in time, to
prove oneself altruistic, is a disease curable by drugs or genetic manipulations of their own invention.

Finally, some politicians will try to put into place a more or less global dictatorship intended to create a “new man” fit to live in hyperdemocracy. They will argue that it will even be possible one day to conceive beings sufficiently masters of themselves to be immune to the urge to accumulate, to waste, to feel jealous — beings happy with others’ happiness, programmed to love being what they are, freed even from all desire and all egoism.

I want to believe that one day — well before the end of the twenty-first century and in the wake of so many obstacles, dizzying precipices, and caricatures — super-empire will be sufficiently advanced to demonstrate the world’s unity without destroying human identity. I also dare hope that hyperviolence will be so threatening to humanity that it will become aware of the need for a radical change of attitude toward itself. I am still convinced that transhumans will by then be sufficiently numerous and sufficiently organized to contain the first wave of the future and destroy the second.

I also dare to believe that dictatorships making a show of hyperdemocracy will endure for less time than those that once made a show of socialism. I want to believe, too, that religions will find a path to mutual tolerance and mutual enrichment.

And finally, I dare to believe that universal advances of the potential violence of the future I have sketched out earlier will contribute to making it impossible.

If such is the case, we shall see outlined the promise, beyond the vast upheavals to come, of an earth hospitable to all life’s travelers.

Between now and then many events will have taken place, worse and better than those imagined here. Beauty will succeed in nourishing and protecting the last sparks of humanity. We will have written and shaped masterpieces, we will have discovered new concepts, we will have composed songs. Above all, we will have loved. And we will love again.

Abravanel, Isaac, 53

accounting, 53

advertising, 78–79

Afghanistan, 103, 202, 216, 241

Africa, 59, 97–98, 102, 116–118, 133, 141, 184, 218, 224–225

afterlife, 8, 9

aging populations, 128–130, 179

agricultural economy, 10–11

agriculture, 11–13, 39, 101, 116, 117, 118, 138, 145, 150–155

AIDS, 102, 117

aircraft, 74, 122, 172

Albania, 246

Alexander the Great, 25

Algeria, 98, 110, 118, 213, 214, 246–247

alienation, 37, 57, 74, 157, 186, 222

alphabet, 20, 23

al-Qaeda, 216, 230, 231

alternative energy, 137–138

altruism, xvi, 259, 260–263

Amenophis IV, 16

American empire, end of, 105–164, 185–186.
See also
United States

American industry, 98–99

Amsterdam, 56–61

animal breeding, 11

animal diversity, 143–144

Antiochus, 26

Antwerp, 48–52, 55, 58

Apple Computer, 88

appliances, 79, 81

Arab world, 118, 213, 214.
See also
Islam

Aramaeans, 23

Argentina, 110, 213–214, 245

Arkwright, Richard, 64

Arpanet, 89–90

artworks, 126–127

Aryans, 15

Asia.
See also specific countries

imperial order in, 41

rise of, 94–97, 111, 154

assembly-line production, 75

Assyrians, 23

astronomical observatories, 1

Athens, 21–26

Augustus, Caesar, 26

Australia, 102, 110, 163, 212–213, 234, 249

Australopithecus
, 3

Austria, 59

automation, 37, 83, 84, 86

automobiles/automobile industry, 71–72, 74–75, 83, 106, 144, 172

Babylonian empire, 16, 23

Bangladesh, 101–102, 133, 246

banking systems, 39, 53, 70, 83–84, 203, 269

batteries, 144

before the common era (BCE), 13

Belgium, 184

Berners-Lee, Tim, 90

Bible, 50

biometrics, 176

birth rates, 128–129, 228

Bodin, Jean, 53–54

Bombay, 162–163

Bonaparte, Napoleon, ix, 67

books, 49–50, 87, 126, 271

border wars, 247–248

Boston, 71–77

Botswana, 117

bourgeoisie, 39, 63

bow, 10

Brazil, 110, 116, 141, 213, 216, 225, 234, 245, 268

British East India Company, 61–62, 63, 69

British Empire, 62, 63, 159

bronze, 13

Bruges, 38–41, 43, 46, 58, 160

Brussels, 110

Buddha, 24

Buddhism, 30

Byzantium, 28, 33, 46

California

future of, 106–110

ninth form and, 83–93, 100, 150, 155

tenth form and, 157–158

Caliphate, 30–33, 230

Cambodia, 246

Canaan, 21

Canada, 110, 137, 163, 214, 244

cannibalism, 5–8

capitalism, 40, 106, 164, 186, 225

caravel, 47

carbon emissions, 139–142

Carter Center, 240

Cartwright, Richard, 65

Catholic Church, 34, 50, 223

Cavendish, Thomas, 54

cell phones, 89, 144

ceramics, 13

Chad, 246

Chang dynasty, 16, 22

chariot, 16

Charlemagne, 31

Charles V, 50–51, 54

Cheops, 15

child laborers, 101–102

children, 121, 188

China, 31, 32, 55, 59, 110, 167, 202, 212, 214

closing off of, 46–47

debt financing by, 154

decline of, 33

demographics, 129

dynasties, 22, 23, 25–26, 29–30, 58, 75

economic growth in, 111–113

empires, 11–15, 16, 159

GDP, 94, 111

growth in, 96

military, 237–238, 249

Opium Wars, 69

population shifts in, 132

technical advances in, 43–44

trade between West and, 60

water disputes and, 246

Christianity, 27, 223–226

chronometer, 63

cities, 35–36, 130–135, 153, 222, 265–266, 270.
See also specific cities

candidates for tenth core, 158, 160–164

growth of, 100–101

life in, 120–121

migration to, 78–79

city-states, 15, 184

Civil War, U.S., 70

civil wars, 103, 247–248

climate change, 117, 139–142, 161, 163, 258

Clinton, Bill, 240

clocks, 1

cloning, 209, 276

Clovis (king), 29

coal, 137

coincidences, x

cold war, 81, 82, 234, 241

collective intelligence, 259

Colombia, 216

Columbus, Christopher, 47

common good, 259, 264, 271–274, 275

communication networks, 124–125, 180

Community of Sant'Egidio, 240

competition, 35, 119–120, 187–188, 189

computers, 86, 88–89, 144–145, 177

Confucianism, 24, 26

Congo, 117, 167, 213, 216, 245, 247

Constantine (emperor), 28

Constantinople, 28, 29, 42

consumer products, 81, 87, 106,

122, 127–128, 157, 166

consumers, 120, 182, 207

content owners, 125

copper, 13

Córdoba, 30, 32, 227, 229

cores, 35–38

absence of, 164

Amsterdam, 56–61

Antwerp, 48–52

Boston, 71–77

Bruges, 38–41

Genoa, 52–56

impermanence of, 155–156

London, 61–71

Los Angeles, 84–93, 106, 150

New York, 77–85

potential new, 155–164

requirements for, 105

Venice, 42–48

cosmogonies, 10

Côte d'Ivoire, 98, 247

cotton, 61–62, 68, 70

craftsmen, 40

Cro-Magnon man, 7

Crusades, 32, 42

Cuba, 97

cuneiform writing, 15

currency, 70, 83, 107, 109, 149, 153

Cyrus, 23

Darfur, 247

Darius, 24

death, 209

debt, 99, 106, 120, 148

deforestation, 138–139

democracy, xiv–xv, 22, 62, 69, 93–94, 109, 165, 167–170, 220–221.
See also
market

democracies

demographics, 128–130

desertification, 141

desire, 24

deterrence, 241–242

dictatorship, xv, 221, 224, 226, 258–259, 277

diplomacy, 239–241

disasters, 258

disparities, 99–102, 106, 206

doctors, 178–179

dollar, 70, 83, 107, 149, 153

domestic animals, 11, 12

dominant groups, 2

Drake, Francis, 54

drought, 142–143

drugs/drug addiction, 201, 258

Dubai, 110

Dutch East India Company, 57

Dutch empire, 56–61, 159

eBay, 95

ecological crisis, xv, 117, 135–144

economic crisis, 148–149, 154–155, 157

economic growth, 108–109, 111–113

Edict of Milan, 28

Edict of Nantes, 58

Edison, Thomas, 73, 78

education, 178

Egypt, 14–15, 16, 23, 110, 117, 167, 213, 234, 246

electricity, 73, 77–78, 79, 81

electric motor, 76, 77–79, 81

elevators, 78

Eleven, the, 110, 114–116, 151, 238, 268

elites, 34–35, 133

empires.
See also specific empires

age of, 13–17

life span of, 159

planetary, 165–210

energy supplies, 136–138, 156

England, 31, 33

Industrial Revolution in, 64–70

London as core of mercantile order, 61–71

textile industry in, 61–62, 64–65, 68

wealth of, 62–63

English language, 151

entertainment, 123, 188–189, 199, 203, 270–271

environs, 36

Epic of Gilgamesh, 15

equality, 62

essential goods, 259, 274–275

Ethiopia, 117, 216, 246

euro, 107, 109

Europe, 151, 161, 249.
See also specific countries

decline of, 94–95

feudal, 52

GDP, 94

immigration to, 134

Middle Ages, 29

Neolithic, 11–12

rise of, 33–35

European Union (EU), 109–110, 161, 213, 214, 225, 266, 267

evangelism, 224–225

evolution, 3–7

exchange rates, 36

executive power, 2

factory workers, 68

fairs, 31, 33–34, 40

family, 78, 79–80, 222

Fannie Mae, 99

farming.
See
agriculture

Fascism, 80

Federal Water Power Act, 79

Fédération Internationale de Football (FIFA), 205, 206

feminine, power of, 2

feudal system, 33, 52

financial crisis, 148, 149, 154–155, 157

financial markets, 49, 70, 83–84, 98, 145, 148, 149, 152

financial services, 86–87, 91–92

financial system, 154–155, 203

financiers, 34, 53

fishing industry, 72

Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, 30

Flanders, 168

Florence, 46, 50

flyboat, 56–57

food industry, 270

food scarcity, 138

Ford, Henry, 74, 75

forests, 138–139

France, 31, 33, 51–52, 59–60, 65–66, 69, 71–72, 74–75, 82, 129, 134, 161, 213, 227–228

Freddie Mac, 99

freedom, 22, 35, 147–148, 186

end of, 206–210

individual, xiii, 113, 162, 179, 187, 221

free goods and services, 262, 270–271

French Revolution, ix, 66

Fulton, Robert, 67

future, questions about, x–xii

Gaza, 142–143

Genghis Khan, 41

Genoa, 46, 52–56, 58

genocide, 248

gentry, 64

Germany, 31, 42–43, 69, 76, 80, 82, 159, 161, 213

Ghana, 118

global institutions, 265–269

globalization, xiii–xiv, 69, 118–119, 184

global warming, 117, 139–142, 161, 163, 258

God, 8–9, 21, 27

gods, 1–2

gold, 51, 52, 54

good times, 274–275, 276

Google, 95, 124

Gorbachev, Mikhail, x, 93–94

governance, of super-empire, 202–206

government, role of, 149

gramophone, 73

Great Britain, 82, 134.
See also
England

Great Depression, 77

Great Plague, 41, 43

Great Wall, 26

Greeks, 20–22, 24, 25

greenhouse gases, 139–142

gross domestic product (GDP)

California, 92

China, 96, 111

Europe, 94, 95

United States, 82

world, 91, 92, 94, 108

Guatemala, 133

Gulf War, 103

Hammurabi, 16

Hanbal, Ibn, 228

Han dynasty, 26, 29

health industry, 178–179, 270

Hebrews, 21, 22, 23

Heraclitus, 24

herding, 11

Hinduism, 24

history

end of, 165

flow of, xii–xiii, 105

laws of, 3

Hitler, Adolf, ix–x, 80

Holy Roman Empire, 50, 159

holy wars, 229–231

Homo ergaster
, 4

Homo habilis
, 3–4

Homo heidelbergensis
, 4

Homo neandertalis
, 5, 7

Homo rudolfensis
, 3–4

Homo sapiens
, 4–6

Homo sapiens sapiens
, 6–7

horses, 16

hourglasses, 1

household appliances, 79

household equipment, 81, 87, 106, 122, 127–128, 144, 157, 166

housing, 11–12, 122, 132, 154

Huang Di, 14

human evolution, 3–7

human history, 1–17

human rights, 267

Hundred Years' War, 41, 43

Huns, 29

hunter-gatherers, 4, 11

Hurricane Katrina, 149, 153

hybrid culture, 166

hydraulic energy, 79

hydrogen, 145

hyperclass, 195

hyperconflict, xiii–xiv, 166, 194, 232–236, 252–254, 258

hyperdemocracy, xiv, xvi, 166, 194, 254, 255–278

collective result of, 271–274

hijacking of, 276–277

individual result of, 274–275

institutions of, 265–269

market's place in, 270–271

vanguards of, 260–264

hyperintelligence, 273–274

hypernomads, 195–197, 199, 216

hypersurveillance, 128, 173–180, 204, 207, 209, 239

IBM, 88

ICANN, 205

I Ching, 15

identity papers, 68–69

immigration, 73, 130, 132–135, 184

imperialism, 73

imperial order, 2, 13–17, 41

incest, 8

India, 15, 25, 33, 110, 168, 214, 246, 247, 268

arming of, 212, 234, 237–238

British control of, 61, 63

economic growth in, 113

GDP, 94

growth in, 96–97

military conflicts and, 249

textile industry in, 70

individual freedom, xiii, 22, 27, 113, 162, 179, 187, 221

individualism, xiii, 14, 23, 84, 121

Indo-Europeans, 15, 16

Indonesia, 110, 114–115, 133, 167, 168, 212, 231, 234, 245, 268

industrial class, 63

industrialization, 37

of farming, 39

of financial services, 86–87

of garment production, 56

industrial production, 157

Industrial Revolution, 64–70

inflation, 83

information, 178

infranomads, 201–202, 217

infrastructure, 131, 149, 150, 153

innovative class, 35, 36, 157, 164, 181–182, 195–197, 260, 262

insurance industry, 92, 122, 129, 154, 174–176, 188–189, 193, 199, 203, 204, 206

Intel, 86

intellectual property rights, 122, 125

internal combustion engine, 71, 74

international community, 264

International Labor Organization (ILO), 268

Internet, 88–92, 99, 123, 124, 144, 151–152, 184–185

inventions, 10, 12, 39, 63–65, 71, 77–79.
See also
technological innovation

iPods, 91

Iran, 82, 110, 118, 167, 213, 214, 234, 242, 248–249, 253

Iraq, 103, 133, 165, 168, 202, 241

Ireland, 110

Islam, 30–33, 163, 212–214, 223, 225, 226–231

Israel, 23, 25, 110, 214, 234, 246, 247

Italy, 31, 159

James, Henry, 74

Japan, 69, 80, 82, 83, 96, 110, 113–114, 159, 162, 212, 234, 238