Barbarians at the Gates (68 page)

-Second, the entropy process can be slowed or even reversed through two agents; the active participation of the ruled in ruling and the presence of a hostile competitor. If the government is accountable to the population, the political class is pushed into remaining honest or risk losing power. If there is a nearby enemy eyeing the state with covetous eyes, the state is forced into competition, which keeps it honest.

Let us consider, for a moment, Imperial China. At the risk of generalising, the Chinese Government decayed to the point where the entire country stagnated. The Chinese system simply could not adapt when new and very unwelcome people made their appearance in China. The Chinese rapidly found themselves helpless before the modern technology of Britain, France, Russia and even Japan. Had China’s government been flexible enough to realise that change—and reform—were desperately needed (even as late as 1900), the history of China would have been very different. Instead, China endured a long period of misery and now groans under Communist rule.

A second example might be Imperial Japan. The Japanese adapted fairly well when they were confronted by hostile nations; they managed to remain independent and mastered modern technology. Their political system, however, remained insulated from the population (and reality) and the Japanese deliberately started a war with a far stronger nation. The result was Japan’s burning in 1945 and a long period of occupation.

A third example might be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the USSR. The average member of the USSR’s government (effectively Russia’s government, with the other nations as satellite states) had very little connection to the general population and, therefore, was capable of inflicting untold misery on them without either knowing or caring what was going on. The forced collectivization of Soviet agriculture stole the incentive for actual production from the farmers, so the USSR was never able to feed itself; the absence of incentives for actual work from industrial workers crippled the Russian industry, the ever-present supervision of the KGB destroyed political discourse and the crushing weight of Marxist doctrine prevented a rational attempt to cope with Russia’s colossal problems. The USSR literally rotted away from within and left behind a traumatised continent.

A fourth example might be Saddam’s Iraq. At one time, Iraq appeared to be on the route to dominant power in the Middle East. Unfortunately, all of the power rested in Saddam’s hands (a typical problem in dictatorships) and disagreeing with Saddam rarely led to a long life. Saddam’s failure to understand that invading Kuwait would bring Iraq into conflict with the West meant that war was inevitable; his failure to abandon Kuwait before the Coalition attacked meant that Iraq was going to be hammered; his refusal to abandon his WMD programs meant that there would never be peace; his failure to learn the lessons of Gulf War One meant that Gulf War Two was a quick defeat for Iraq. Iraq’s core problem was that Saddam was insulated from both reality and his own population. He didn’t care about their suffering, although it did allow him to cynically blame it on America.

What, therefore, does history teach us about the future? First, tyrannical states (however defined) cannot be expected to care about the suffering of their own population. Second, tyrannical states will act in ways we consider irrational because the well-being of their own people isn’t on their list of concerns. Third, an unquestioned doctrine (Marxism-Leninism or Fundamentalist Islam) can push its high priests into doing stupid or irrational acts in the name of the doctrine. Fourth—and most importantly—no amount of concessions will change their behaviour. It has to be made clear that the leadership
will
be targeted if rogue states decide to cause trouble.

History, I’m afraid, also teaches us that far too many people will refuse to grasp those points.

But what does this all mean for the West?

The West (by which I mean Europe, America, Australia and New Zealand), on the face of it, doesn’t have those problems. We have not birthed a tyrant who took the reins of power and wreaked havoc. I am perfectly aware that people threw mud at President Bush and are throwing mud at President Obama. Even so, the worst of the West’s recent rulers (Jimmy Carter? Richard Nixon? William (Bill) Clinton? Tony Blair? Jacques Chirac?) was never a tyrant.

The West is not perfect. Far from it. But the West is still paradise compared to even a “benevolent tyranny,” if such a state can be deemed to exist outside theory.

Even so, the West has problems. One of them is that there is an increasing separation of rulers and ruled. It doesn’t take much investigation to see political leaders acting in ways that—if done by anyone else—would have resulted in the most serious of consequences. Sometimes—as in the UK Parliamentary Expenses Scandal—they become a farce. If that wasn’t bad enough, there is a growing trend among politicians to assume that if they hang on long enough, the world might forget the scandals and they might be able to continue in power.

Our politics are rapidly becoming poisonous. Just consider the amount of mud thrown around about President Obama’s birth certificate. Or Bush’s supposed lack of intelligence. Or Brown’s rather dubious grasp of national and international banking. Or Blair’s honesty and integrity. No one can enter politics without being smeared or insulted by his opponents—one example of epic fail is the old lie “if you oppose immigration, you’re a racist”—and accusations of past failings and unfortunate remarks.

The politician (or should it be
pollution
) who wins the prize for sheer bare-faced arrogance and unsuitability for office is, in my opinion at least, Shahid Malik of the British Labour Party. Having been caught red-handed (he was hardly the first politician to be caught during 2009) fiddling his expenses, Malik counterattacked by accusing his critics of racism. Later, when he lost his seat in 2010, he claimed that an independent candidate had been brought in specifically to make sure he lost. It did not seem to occur to him that his own conduct might have been the cause of his downfall.

But then, what else can you expect from the political class?

This has had a disastrous effect on the West. Where long-term planning is required, short-term planning (plans to run up to the next election and no further) has been used instead. The governments have created an increasing number of bureaucrats and bureaucratic regulations that strangle small business, along with writing laws that border on the absurd or are never properly scrutinised or discussed. The vital pillars of society—police, fire brigades and even the military—have become political footballs. Political correctness has damaged freedom of speech. And, perhaps worst of all, faith in governments and public institutions is declining sharply. The public no longer trusts their government.

And there are barbarians at the gates. Like it or not, we are at war.

Clemenceau said, back during the First World War, that war is too important to be left to the generals. Like most quotes, it is often taken out of context. I believe that he meant that war and politics had become tangled and battles couldn’t just be fought for purely military objectives. Levelling an entire town in Iraq for harbouring a sniper would work perfectly, from the military point of view of suppressing enemies, but it is the kind of act that tends to make enemies.

Just as war is too important to leave to the generals, politics is too important to be left to the politicians. Whatever you (and they) may feel, democratic politicians work for the public, not themselves. Who pays the piper calls the tune. If you want real change, change people can actually believe in, get out there and get involved in politics. Remember, if there is one thing that politicians fear, it is becoming unpopular. They will bend over backwards to avoid it. Find out what you need to do and get out there. Keep the bastards honest. As to why you should do it, Heinlein put it very well:

“Because you are needed. Because the task is not hopeless. Democracy is normally in perpetual crisis. It requires the same constant, alert attention to keep it from going to pot that an automobile does when driven through downtown traffic. If you do not yourself pay attention to the driving, year in and year out, the crooks, or scoundrels, or nincompoops will take over the wheel and drive it in a direction you don’t fancy, or wreck it completely.

When you pick yourself up out of the wreckage, you and your wife and your kids, don’t talk about what “They” did to you. You did it, compatriot, because you preferred to sit in the back seat and snooze. Because you thought your taxes bought you a bus ticket and a guaranteed safe arrival, when all your taxes bought you was a part ownership in a joint enterprise, on a share-the-cost and share-the-driving plan.”

And why is this important? Consider the chaos that followed Saddam’s removal from power, or the collapse of the USSR. Why did it occur? One possible answer is that there weren’t enough people who knew (from experience and/or theory) how to make a democratic society work. I worry that we’re running out of them over here. We need competent and serious men.

Where are they?

Read some history. Then get out and make it.

Christopher G. Nuttall

2014

2030: Establishment of Armstrong Base on Luna. First shipment of lunar HE3 to Earth.

2031-35: Establishment of Japanese, Russian, European and Chinese mining bases on the moon. Launch of first asteroid capture missions.

2037: Launch of first Mars mission.

2038: Effective collapse of the Middle East owing to the replacement of oil by HE3

2040: First large-scale colony ship launched to Mars. First military bases established on the moon.

2045-50: Third World War pits Americans and Europeans against Russians and Chinese, fighting it out for control of NEO and access to space-based resources. War ends in orbital bombardment of China and Russia, followed by unconditional surrender.

2051: Terran Federation established by victorious powers as a replacement for the discredited United Nations. Mars population booms as seven new colony ships are launched towards Mars.

2051-2100: First Expansion Era. Settlements on all planetary bodies and thousands of asteroids. New political units form, including the Kingdom of Titan and the RockRat Association. Most of Earth’s industrial base is steadily being moved into space as a response to increasing security problems on Earth.

2070: Free Mars movement formed in pursuit of an independent Mars-based state.

2090: Hundreds of generational arks—mainly formed from asteroids and crewed by RockRats—start heading out, seeking freedom from an increasingly repressive national security state.

2097: Doctor Irene Asimov deduces the presence of “gravimetric points” within Sol’s gravity field.

2103: Discovery of the first Asimov Point, leading to a nearby Sol-type star.

2104: Discovery of Sol’s second Asimov Point. This one leads to a system that includes an Earth-like world, which is named Terra Nova.

2105-07: Settlement begins on Terra Nova. The process is an uncomfortable one as the Federation finds itself compelled to include an even mix of Earth’s nationalities and religions.

2107-30: Second Expansion Era. Fourteen Earth-like worlds are discovered. Settlement of Kennedy, Novaya Rodina, Britannia and others. Earth-based governments start offering settlement incentives, hoping to push as many people into emigrating as possible. First orbital tower completed.

2132: Discovery of Graveyard, a world that was apparently destroyed in a nuclear war.

2134: Zion, a solely Jewish world, is colonised over the objections of various parties in the Federation. The State of Israel—which has constructed three frigates as part of its contribution to the Federation Navy—announces that it will defend their right to a homeworld.

2140-60: The First Interstellar War. The Snakes emerge from an undiscovered Asimov Point in the Zion System and attack the Jewish world. Planetary bombardment is followed by invasion, forcing the settlers to resort to insurgent warfare to remain alive. The Snakes follow up their advantage by pushing through the other Asimov Point, but fail to detect the Type-3 Asimov Point in the Marianne System that would allow them to punch through to Earth. The Federation mobilises for war, military forces are united and political differences are forgotten. Zion is liberated in 2052, followed by a military campaign that takes humanity into the heart of the Snake Empire. When the Snakes refuse to surrender, planetary bombardment is used to depopulate their worlds. The sole remaining Snakes are transferred to a marginal world at the end of a chain of Asimov Points and barred from developing any form of space travel or indeed high technology ever again.

2161: The Federation is reconfigured under the leadership of President Vane. The Federation Protocols are signed, creating the united Federation Navy and Federation Marines.

The Brotherhood of Humanity is founded by the survivors of Zion. In the following centuries, the Brotherhood provides a disproportionate percentage of recruits for the Federation Navy, before becoming a quasi-underground secret society.

2161-3005: Third Expansion Era. Humanity settles over five hundred worlds by moving through Asimov Points. Several new alien races are discovered, not all of them friendly. Owing to prevailing xenophobia after the First Interstellar War, aliens—even those living within the Federation—are not enfranchised or regarded as equals. At least two alien races are exterminated by human settlers.