El cisne negro (65 page)

Read El cisne negro Online

Authors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

BOOK: El cisne negro
9.22Mb size Format: txt, pdf, ePub

LeDoux, Loseph, The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life,
Nueva York, Simon and Schuster, 1998 (trad, cast.:
El cerebro emocional,
Barcelona, Planeta, 2000).

—, Synaptic Self How Our Brains Become Who We Are, Nueva York, Viking, 2002.

Le Goff, Jacques,
Les
intellectuels au moyen age,
Paris, Points Histoire, 1985 (trad, cast.:
Los intelectuales en la Edad
Media,
Barcelona, Gedisa, 1986).

Levi, Isaac,
Gambling with Truth,
Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1970.

Lichtenstein, Sarah y Baruch Fischhoff, «
Do Those Who Know More Also Know More About How Much They Know? The Calibration of Probability Judgments»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, n° 20,1977, págs. 159-183.

—, «
The Effects of Gender and Instructions on Calibration»
, Decision Research Report, n° 81-5, Eugene, OR, Decision Research, 1981.

Lichtenstein, Sarah, Baruch Fischhoff y Lawrence Phillips, «
Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980»
, en D. Kahneman, P. Slovic y A. Tversky (compsJudgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Lim, T., «
Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias»
, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, n° 1, 1991, págs. 98-119.

Lissowski, Grzegotz, Tadeusz Tyszka y Wlodzimierz Okrasa, «
Principles of Distributive Justice: Experiments in Poland and America»
, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 35, n° 1, 1991, págs. 98-119.

Liu, Jing, «
Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Analysts' Forecasts»
, documento de trabajo, UCLA, 1998.

Loewenstein, G. F., E. U. Weber, C. K. Hsee y E. S. Welch, «Risk as Feelings», Psychological Bulletin, n° 127, 2001, págs. 267-286.

Loewenstein, George, «
The Fall and Rise of Psychological Explanations in the Economics of Intertemporal Choice»
, en George Loewenstein y Jon Elster (comps.), Choice over Time, Nueva York, Russell Sage Foundation, 1992.

Loftus, Elizabeth E y Katherine Ketcham, The Myth of Repressed Memory: Fake Memories and Allegations and Sexual Abuse,
Nueva York, St. Martins Press, 1994.

Lotka, Alfred J., «
The Frequency Distribution of Scientific Productivity»
, Journal of the Washington Academy ofSciences, vol. 16, n° 12, 1926, pags. 317-323.

Lowenstein, R., When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term CapitalManagement,
Nueva York, Random House, 2000.

Lucas, Robert E., «
Asset Proces in an Exchange Economy»
, Econometrica, n° 46, 1978, pags. 1.429-1.445.

Luce, R. D. y H. Raiffa, Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey,
Nueva York, Wiley, 1957.

Mach, E., «
On the Part Played by Accident in Invention and Discovery»
, Monist, n° 6, 1896, pags. 161-175.

Machina, M. J. y M. Rothschild, «
Risk»
, en J. Eatwell, M. Milgate y P. Newman (comps.), 1987.

Magee, Bryan, Philosophy and the Real World: An Introduction to Karl Popper, La Salle, IL, Open Court Books, 1985.

—, Confessions of a Philosopher, Londres, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1997.

Maines, L. A. y J. R. Hand, «
Individuals' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Time-series Properties of Quarterly Earnings»
, Accounting Review, n° 71, 1996, pags. 317-336.

Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J, Newton, R. Parzen y R. Winkler, «
The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition»
,Journal of Forecasting, n° 1, 1982, pags. 111-153.

Makridakis, S„ C. Chatfield, M. Hibon, M. Lawrence, T. Mills, K. Ord y L. F. Simmons, «
The M2-Competition: A Real-Time Judgmentally Based Forecasting Study»
(con comentario), International Journal of Forecasting, n° 5, 1993,pag. 29.

Makridakis, S. y M. Hibon, «
The M3-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications»
, International Journal of Forecasting, n° 16, 2000, pags. 451-476.

Mandelbrot, Benoit, «
The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices»
, Journal of Business, vol. 36, n° 4, 1963, pags. 394-419.

—, «
Information Theory and Psycholinguistics»
, en B. Wolman y E. Nagel (comps.), Scientific Psychology: Principles and Approaches, Nueva York, Basic Books, 1965.

—, Les objetsfractals: forme, hasard et dimension,
Paris, Flammarion, 1975 (trad, cast.:
Los objetos fractales: forma, azar y dimension,
Barcelona, Tusquets,
1988).

—, The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Nueva York, W. H. Freeman and Company, 1982 (trad, cast.:
La geometria fractal de la naturaleza
, Barcelona, Tusquets, 1997).

—, Fractales, hasardetfinance,
Paris, Flammarion, 1997a (trad, cast.:
Fractalesy finanzas: arriesgar, perdery ganar,
Barcelona, Tusquets, 2006).

—, Fractals and Scaling in Finance: Discontinuity, Concentration, Risk, Nueva York, Springer-Verlag, 1997b.

Mandelbrot, Benoit y Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «
A Focus on the Exceptions That Prove the Rule»
, en Mastering Uncertainty: Financial Times Series, 2006a.

—, «
Matemadca della sagessa»
, II Sole 24 Ore, 9 de octubre de 2006b.

—, «
Random Jump Not Random Walk»
, manuscrito, 2007a.

—, «Mild vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Risks chat Matter», de proxima aparicion en Frank Diebold, Neil Doherty y Richard Herring (comps.), The Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable in Financial Institutions, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2007b.

Mandier, J. M. y L. McDonough, «
Studies in inductive Inference in Infancy»
, Cognitive Psychology, n° 37, 1998, pags. 60-96.

Margalit, Avishai,
The Ethics of Memory,
Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 2002.

Markowitz, Harry, «
Portfolio Selection
», Journal of Finance, marzo de 1952, pags. 77-91,

—, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, 2
a
ed., Nueva York, Wiley, 1959.

Marmott, Michael, The Status Syndrome: How Social Standing Affects Our Health and Longevity,
Londres, Bloomsbury, 2004.

Marr, D.,
Vision,
Nueva York, W. H. Freeman and Company, 1982 (trad, cast.:
La vision,
Madrid, Alianza, 1985).

Masters, John,
Casanova,
Nueva York, Bernard Geis Associates, 1969.

May, R. M.,
Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 1973.

May, R. S„ «
Overconfidence as a Result of Incomplete and Wrong Knowledge»
, en R. W. Scholz (comp.), Current Issues in West German Decision Research, Frankfurt am Main, Lang, 1986.

Mayseless, O. y A. W. Kruglanski, «
What Makes You So Sure? Effects of Epistemic Motivations on Judgmental Confidence»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 39, 1987, pags. 162-183.

McClelland, A. G. R. y F. Bolger, «
The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities: Theories and Models, 1980-1994»
, en G. Wright y P. Ayton (comps.), Subjective Probability, Chichester, Wiley, 1994.

McCloskey, Deirdre,
IfYou're So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise,
Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1990.

—, «
The Art of Forecasting: From Ancient to Modern Times»
, Cato Journal, vol, 12, n° 1, 1992, pägs. 23-43.

McClure, Samuel M., David I. Laibson, George F. Loewenstein y Jonathan D. Cohen, «
Separate Neural Systems Value Immediate and Delayed Monetary Rewards»
, Science, vol. 306, n° 5.695, 2004, pägs. 503-507.

McManus, Chris,
Right Hand, Left Hand,
Londres, Orion Books, 2002.

McNees, Stephen K., «
Rebuttal of Armstrong»
, Journal of Business, vol. 51, n° 4, 1978, pags. 573-577.

—, «
An Assessment of the "Official" Economic Forecasts»
, New England Economic Review, julio-agosto de 1995, pägs. 13-23.

McNeill, William H.,
Plagues and Peoples,
Nueva York, Anchor Books, 1976 (trad, cast.:
Plagasy pueblos,
Madrid, Siglo XXI, 1984).

Medawar, Peter, The Strange Case of the Spotted Mice and Other Classic Essays on Science,
Oxford, Oxford University Press,
1996
(trad, cast.:
Elextrano caso de los ratones moteadosy otros ensayossobre ciencia,
Barcelona, Cr/tica,
1997).

Meehl, Paul E., Clinical Versus Statistical Predictions: A Theoretical Analysis and Revision of the Literature,
Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press,
1954.

—, «
Why I Do Not Attend in Case Conferences»
, en Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1973, pägs. 225-302.

Mendenhall, Richard R„ «
Evidence of Possible Underweighting of Earnings-related Information»
, Journal of Accounting Research, n° 29, 1991, pägs. 170178.

Merton, R. K., «
The Matthew Effect in Science»
, Science, n° 159, 1968, pags. 56-63.

—, «
The Matthew Effect in Science»
, en N. Storer (comp.), The Sociology of Science, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1973a.

—, «
The Normative Structure of Science»
, en N. Storer (comp.), The Sociology of Science, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1973b.

—, «
The Matthew Effect II: Cumulative Advantage and the Symbolism of Intellectual Property»
, Isis, n° 79, 1988, pags. 606-623.

Merton, Robert C., «
An Analytic Derivation of the Efficient Portfolio Frontier»
, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 7, n° 4, 1972, pägs. 1.851-1.872.

—, Continuous-Time Finance
,
2
a
ed., Cambridge, Reino Unido, Blackwell, 1992.

Merton, Robert K. y Elinor Barber,
The Travels and Adventures of Serendipity,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2004.

Mihailescu, Calin,
Lotophysics,
publicación preliminar, University of Western Ontario, 2006.

Mikhail, Michael B., Beverly R. Walther y Richard H. Willis, «
Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts?»
, The Accounting Review, vol. 74, n° 2, 1999, págs. 185-200.

—, «
Do Security Analysts Improve Their Performance with Experience ?»
,Journal of Accounting Research, n° 35, 1997, págs. 131-157.

Milgrana, S., «
The Small World Problem»
, Psychology Today, n° 2,1997, págs. 60-67.

Mill, John Stuart, A System of Logic Ratiocinative and Inductive, Being a Connected View of the Principle of Evidence and the Methods of Scientific Investigation,
3
a
ed„ Londres, John W. Parker, West Strand, I860 (trad, cast.:
Sistema de lógica inductiva y deductiva,
Madrid, Jorro, 1917).

Miller, Dale T. y Michael Ross, «
Self-Serving Biases in Attribution of Causality: Fact or Fiction?»
, Psychological Bulletin, vol. 82, n° 2, 1975, págs. 213-225.

Miller, Geoffrey F., The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped the Evolution of Human Nature,
Nueva York, Doubleday, 2000.

Minsky, H., Can It Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance,
Armonk, NY, M.E. Sharpe, 1982.

Mitzenmacher, Michael, «
A Brief History of Generative Models for Power Law and Log-normal Distributions»
, Internet Mathematics, vol. 1, n° 2, 2003, págs. 226-251-

Mohr, C., T. Landis, H. S. Bracha y P Brugger, «
Opposite Turning Behavior in Right-handers and Non-right-handers Suggests a Link Between Handedness and Cerebral Dopamine Asymmetries»
, Behavioral Neuroscience, vol. 117, n° 6,2003, págs. 1.448-1.452.

Mokyr, Joel,
The Gifts of Athena,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2002.

Montier, James,
Applied Behavioural Finance,
Chichester, Reino Unido, Wiley,

2007.

Moon, Francis C.,
Chaotic and Fractal Dynamics,
Nueva York, Wiley, 1992.

Mossner, E. C.,
The Life of David Hume,
Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1970.

Murphy, A. H. y R. Winkler, «
Probability Forecasting in Meteorology»
, Journal of the American Statistical Association, n° 79, 1984, págs. 489-500.

Myers, David G.,
Intuition: Its Powers and Perils,
New Haven, Conn., Yale University Press, 2002 (trad, cast.:
Intuición: el poder y el peligro del doble sentido,
Barcelona, Paidós, 2003).

Nader, K. y J. E. LeDoux, «
The Dopaminergic Modulation of Fear: Quinpirole Impairs the Recall of Emotional Memories in Rats»
, Behavioral Neuroscience, wl 113, n° 1, 1999, págs. 152-165.

Naya, Emmanuel y Anne-Pascale Pouey-Mounou,
Eloge de la médiocrité,
Paris, Éditions Rue d'Ulm, 2005.

Nelson, Lynn Hankinson y Jack Nelson,
On
Quine,
Belmont, Calif., Wadsworth, 2000.

Nelson, Robert H.,
Economics as a Religion: From Samuelson to Chicago and Beyond,
University Park, Penn., The Pennsylvania State University Press, 2001.

Newell, A. y H. A. Simon,
Human Problem Solving,
Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall, 1972.

Newman, M., «
The Structure and Function of Complex Networks»
, SLAM Review, n° 45, 2003, págs. 167-256.

Newman, M, E. J., «
Models of the Small World: A Review»
, Journal of Statistical Physics, n° 101, 2000, págs. 819-841.

—, «
The Structure of Scientific Collaboration Networks»
, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, n° 98, 2001, págs. 404-409.

—, «
Power Laws, Pareto Distributions, and Zipf s Law»
, Complexity Digest, n° 2, 2005, págs. 1-27.

Newman, M. E. J., C. Moore y D. J. Watts, «
Mean-field Solution of the SmallWorld Network Model»
, Physical Review Letters, n° 84, 2000, págs. 3.2013.204.

Newman, M. E. J., D. J. Watts y S. H. Strogatz, «
Random Graphs with Arbitrary Degree Distribution and Their Applications»
, edición preliminar accesible en <
http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0007235
>, 2005.

Other books

The Society by Michael Palmer
Killers for Hire by Tori Richards
Deceitful Choices by C.A. Harms
The Devil You Know by Trish Doller
Delirium by Erin Kellison
Reaper by Edward Kendrick
When Nights Were Cold by Susanna Jones
Sliding Scales by Alan Dean Foster
Kiss of Noir by Clara Nipper