Fatal Thunder: A Jerry Mitchell Novel (29 page)

“That can’t be helped, and once
Chakra
sails, it won’t matter,” Dhankhar answered. “Jain and his men are up to the task.”

Kirichenko brightened as he considered the possibilities. “You’ve got good weapons for the first three ports. With the transit, that gives us at least a week and a half, perhaps two, to finish the work on the last two torpedoes. We could both get some rest and still have time to finish. It’s probably not a good idea to work nuclear weapons when you’re short on sleep. I’ll need you to put our payment into the account number I gave you before we leave, of course.”

Dhankhar shook his head. “Absolutely not!”

“But we were to be paid before
Chakra
sails. I need that money!” Kirichenko was almost whining.

“You were to be paid when you deliver five armed torpedoes.” Dhankhar tried not to sound too pleased. He found himself enjoying this. “I will tell Jain to send a message after the last weapon is launched and it is safe for him to transmit. Then, and only then, will I transfer the money to your account.”

Kirichenko gestured helplessly. “What? You think we won’t finish the work locked up on your submarine?”

“Were you going to use the money for something before you sailed?” replied Dhankhar. “There’s nothing to spend it on here at the base, and I don’t think you should go outside. Did I mention that the SVR knows all about your operation?”

“How?” Kirichenko was horrified.

“We know that part of a U.S. briefing given to the Indian government yesterday described a barge hidden off the coast of northern Russia, and your connection to it. Evidently the American and Russian governments have been working together.”

Dhankhar watched the Russian’s expression change from horror to fear, then something like resignation. “Fine. I must insist that we be paid today—in cash, preferably U.S. dollars.”

“That’s a lot of money, even if I wasn’t in a hurry. Why should I?”

By now, Orlav had stopped work and had come over to listen as well. Kirichenko explained, “If the SVR is now looking for me, there’s no guarantee that my offshore account is safe, or that my contacts are still trustworthy.”

He paused, then added, “And can you arrange to have Captain Jain put us ashore near some neutral port after he has accomplished his mission? I can’t go back to Russia, although that had been my intention.”

Dhankhar scowled. “
Chakra
can’t just pull into some Asian port and drop you two off. I’m sure you understand that it means surfacing and putting you—and your money—in a rubber raft and leaving you to make your own way to shore.”

“Of course,” Kirichenko answered, and looking over at Orlav, added, “Two rafts, please.”

“Different destinations, as well?” sighed Dhankhar. “All right. I’ll gather what cash I can, and Jain can hold on to it until he is satisfied. I’ll also instruct Jain to put you off the boat at locations that meet with his approval, in return for you both completing the work aboard
Chakra
.”

Both Russians nodded solemnly, and then Kirichenko stood up a little straighter. “Right, then. We’ll get these two torpedoes assembled and then get organized. When do we board?”

“
Chakra
will sail at twenty-one hundred hours tonight. Be ready to bring the weapons aboard at eighteen hundred.”

“Understood. We will be ready.”

Energized, the two quickly turned toward the workbench, but Dhankhar called after them. “Kirichenko, Orlav. If this were a movie, I’d order Jain to shoot you both the moment the mission was accomplished. I’m an honorable man, and I intend to keep my part of the bargain, but if there is any trouble, remember that Jain always has that option.”

6 April 2017

0800 EST

White House Situation Room

Washington, D.C.

The situation room could hold twenty people comfortably. Patterson had seen thirty squeezed in, once, and nobody used their elbows or breathed deeply. It was just over half full now, with literally every person in the U.S. government who was aware of the Indian nuclear conspiracy.

The newest member of that elite group was preparing to brief the rest. Satisfied that his tablet and the screen were properly linked, he nodded nervously to Patterson and stepped behind the podium.

Patterson rose and the quiet conversation around the table stopped instantly. Her summons had been urgent. Nodding toward the briefer, she began, “Dr. Stan Tomasz is the senior economic analyst at the China desk in the State Department. In response to the president’s question about the threat to China the Indian plot represented, I asked Stan—Dr. Tomasz, to estimate the consequences if the Indian conspirators are successful.”

She started to sit down, but stopped, straightened, and added, “I should mention that Dr. Tomasz has been studying the Chinese economy since well before the Littoral Alliance war, and during the war gave me frequent updates on its health, or lack thereof. When he told me of his findings last night, I immediately informed the president, and he told me to organize this briefing.” She quickly sat down.

Dr. Tomasz was in his thirties, and fighting a losing battle with his hairline and midsection. Perhaps in compensation, he wore a neatly trimmed beard, which gave him a professorial appearance. He looked apprehensive, and tired.

He tapped a button on his tablet, and the flat-screen display behind him came to life. The title, “Chinese Economic Estimate,” was deliberately vague, but the security markings said much more: “This briefing contains sensitive information and is classified Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information.”

“Dr. Patterson asked me to estimate the effects of five 150-kiloton nuclear weapons being detonated in major Chinese port cities. She gave me a list of ten cities that were potential targets.”

He tapped his tablet and the screen changed to show a map of China, the coast dotted with small red disks. “These are the cities on the list she provided, and all are major ports with large civilian populations.”

He gestured with a laser pointer, pointing out cities one after the other. “Hong Kong is a major economic center with a population over seven million people and nine separate harbors. Shanghai’s population is over twenty-four million; it is also a major financial center, as well as the world’s number-one container port with two large terminal facilities. Even smaller ports, like Ningbo or Xiamen, house over three million souls and are important shipping centers.”

The image zoomed to show a close-up of Shanghai, sitting on the easternmost part of China’s coast. Taiwan lay to the south, Japan directly east, and Korea to the northeast. It was easy to see why it was the world’s busiest container port, the two large terminal facilities highlighted on the map. Tomasz shined his laser pointer on the seaward facility. Hangzhou Bay faced east, with the city on the northern side.

He waved the laser along a long structure that led to a pair of islands near the mouth of the bay. “Shanghai is a complex target set as the two facilities are far apart. The first, Yangshan Container Terminal, is built on two small islands and is connected to the mainland by the Donghai Bridge, which is just over twenty miles long. The Yangshan terminal moved just over twelve million twenty-foot equivalent units or TEUs last year.”

He turned away from the harbor map to face his audience. “I consulted with CIA’s subject matter experts about the effects of the weapons Dr. Patterson described. The most destructive way to use a torpedo with a 150-kiloton yield would be to set it shallow, so the detonation would be a surface burst.” He pressed the tablet, and circles appeared, centered on a point just off the terminal.

“Yangshan’s a deep-water port, so the torpedo could be sent well in, close to the islands the terminal was built on. This inner circle”—he pointed to a red circle that neatly surrounded the entire terminal—“is twelve kilometers in diameter, and represents the distance at which the blast would cause near-total destruction. This is only the initial effect. The damage from fires and secondary causes would likely finish off anything the blast left standing. Note the large petroleum refinery and storage facility to the east. This site was damaged during the Sino–Littoral Alliance War; a nuclear blast at the Yangshan terminal would level it.” He pointed to orange and yellow circles farther out. “These represent the radii for moderate and light damage.” While they extended much farther, neither reached the shoreline.

“The second port facility is the Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone on the south bank of the Yangtze River, and it is home to four container terminals. Unlike Yangshan, the Waigaoqiao facility is harder to reach, as it is twenty-four nautical miles upstream. However, based on the estimated weapon’s characteristics, a nuclear-armed torpedo could theoretically reach this facility. A blast here would be more damaging.”

Tomasz’s next slide showed a lot of Shanghai proper within the twelve-kilometer-diameter destruction circle. “Civilian casualties would be on the order of a quarter of a million dead, and infrastructure damage would reach six to seven kilometers inland. Please note the Jiangnan Shipyard on Changxing Island, across the Yangtze’s southern fork, is within this radius. The Jiangnan Shipyard is a major provider of modern warships to the PLAN as well as large civilian merchant ships.

“Between the Yangshan and Waigaoqiao port facilities, China moved about twenty million TEUs last year. Before the war, that number was just over thirty-four million. But considering the distances involved, the Indians would have to use two torpedoes to achieve the desired damage. Next, let’s look at Hong Kong.” Tomasz changed the screen and a new map appeared.

Victoria Harbor, the main port, lay between Kowloon to the north and Hong Kong Island to the south. He pressed his tablet and the same three circles reappeared. This time the red circle not only included the entire harbor, but extended well inland on both Kowloon and Hong Kong Island, including a large part of the downtown area.

“Everyone knows about how densely people are packed in over there. We estimate, with a fair degree of confidence, that about three hundred and fifty thousand people would be killed immediately, with almost another million injured.”

Tomasz returned to the podium and checked his notes. “We don’t know which ports are the actual targets. Assuming they’re moderately competent, they’ve studied every name on the list, and then chosen, based on whatever their criteria were, and in fact, the others remain alternates if a primary target cannot be attacked.” He looked over at Patterson, who was nodding. Geisler, the Secretary of Defense, also nodded approvingly.

“The two cities I showed you in detail are almost certainly on the target list, and we’ve run through different combinations of the others to create a range of results.” He brought up a slide titled “Possible Combinations,” but Patterson caught his eye.

“Just bring up the summary, please.”

Tomasz nodded and quickly tapped the screen several times. Maps and tables flashed on the screen until he reached the summary page. The figures were stark, and almost everyone reacted with shock or disbelief. Patterson explained, “These are actually the refined results, based on guidance that I gave Dr. Tomasz last night.”

“Anywhere between two and a quarter to four and a half million souls killed, and three times that injured,” Tomasz remarked, reading the slide. “One bomb would be a catastrophe. Five would be apocalyptic. We did not calculate the effects of the fallout, tidal surges, or electromagnetic pulse both because of time constraints, and because, frankly, these initial effects are bad enough.”

The economist explained, “The human cost and physical destruction are first-order effects. I needed these before I could begin my analysis of the true impact to China.”

The next slide was titled “Economic Impact.” He spoke confidently, explaining the figures. “China’s gross domestic product was already suffering, down from seven point three trillion before the war to six point five last year. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but to an economist, that’s a strong recession and flirting with a depression. Foreign trade, exporting the manufactured goods the Chinese need to support their growing economy, was especially hard-hit. At a minimum, the destructive effects of the attack would knock at least a full trillion off of that, and probably closer to two trillion.

“That’s not just a depression. A trillion gets you a nice, solid depression, no question. But two trillion is real money. Not only would many, maybe most industries shut down, but the transportation and agricultural sectors, even basic government services, would be crippled as well. And that doesn’t include the extraordinary burden of emergency relief. A lot of people will need medical care, food, water, and shelter for a considerable period of time.”

He pressed a control and the screen shifted again, showing a map of the world with arrows linking China with the rest of the world. It was a simple enough diagram—the fatter the arrows, the more trade between the two nations.

“This graphic shows prewar trade levels.” The fattest arrows were between China and the U.S., and China and the European Union. He pressed the tablet and the graphic shifted. All the arrows shrank; the ones to Asian nations almost disappeared. “This is postwar. Some of this is political, for example Vietnam’s embargo, but most is due to China’s reduced consumption and its reduced ability to provide goods for sale.”

The screen changed again, with most arrows disappearing, and the remaining ones shrinking to mere threads. “And this is my estimate of the results of the Indian attack. China’s exports drop to about fifteen percent of last year, while her need for all kinds of imports would grow substantially. Unfortunately, she likely doesn’t have the cash reserves to pay for this increased need, let alone tackling the relief efforts.

“We’re almost certain that her reserves were virtually eliminated during the Littoral Alliance war. She’s got nothing to buy with.”

Since Patterson had seen this before, she watched the president and the others. Their horrified expressions told her they understood not only the staggering cost in human life, but the impact this would have on the world economy. The U.S. was already suffering a mild recession, partly from direct effects of their trade with China, but aggravated by the more severe economic problems Japan and the other Asian nations were suffering.