How We Know What Isn't So (33 page)

10
M. Snyder&W. B. Swann(1978)Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36,
1202-1212.

11
M. Snyder& N. Cantor(1979) Testing hypotheses about other people: The use of historical knowledge.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
, 15, 330-42.

12
A. Tversky & I. Gati (1978) Studies of similarity. In E. Rosch & B. Lloyd (Eds.),
Cognition and categorization
. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.

13
For a more formal treatment of this issue, see H. J. Einhorn & R. M. Hogarth (1977) Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity.
Psychological Review, 85,
395-416.

14
T. Gilovich (1987) Real world accuracy in human judgment: Baseball fans evaluate the front office. Unpublished manuscript; P. Hirsch (1972) Processing fads and fashions: An organization-set analysis of cultural industry systems.
American Journal of Sociology, 77,
639-59.

15
R. M. Kaplan (1982) Nader’s raid on the testing industry: Is it in the best interest of the consumer?
American Psychologist, 37
15-23.

16
R. K. Merton (1948) The self-fulfilling prophecy.
Antioch Review, 8,
193-210.

17
R. M. Dawes (1988)
Rational choice in an uncertain world
. San Diego: Harcourt-Brace-Jovanovich.

18
H. H. Kelley & A. J. Stahelski (1970) Social interaction basis of cooperators’ and competitors’ beliefs about others.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 16,
66-91.

19 M. Snyder & W. B. Swann (1978) Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36,
1202-1212.

20
R. E. Nisbett & M. Smith (1989) Predicting interpersonal attraction from small samples: A reanalysis of Newcomb’s acquaintance study.
Social Cognition, 7,
67-73.

Chapter 4.
Seeing What We Expect to See

1
A. Montagu (1961) Neonatal and infant immaturity in man.
Journal of the American Medical Association, 178,
56-57; R. E. Passingham (1975) Changes in the size and organization of the brain in man and his ancestors.
Brain, Behavior and Evolution, 11,
73-90.

2
G. Cooper (1987)
“Red tape holds up new bridge” and more flubs from the nation’s press.
New York: Perigee.

3
R. C. Schank (1984)
The cognitive computer: On language, learning, and artificial intelligence.
Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

4
J. S. Bruner (1957) Going beyond the information given. In H. Gulber et al. (Eds.),
Contemporary approaches to cognition.
Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

5
M. G. Frank & T. Gilovich (1988) The dark side of self and social perception: Black uniforms and aggression in professional sports.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54,
74-85.

6
C. G. Lord, L. Ross, & M. R. Lepper (1979) Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37,
2098-2109.

7
T. Gilovich (1983) Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44,
1110-1126; T. Gilovich & C. Douglas (1986) Biased evaluations of randomly determined gambling outcomes.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22,
228-41.

8
For evidence supporting this prediction, see A. F. Glixman (1949) Recall of completed and incompleted activities under varying degrees of stress.
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 39,
281-95; A. G. Greenwald (1980) The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history.
American Psychologist, 35,
603-18; S. Rosenzweig (1943) An experimental study of ‘repression’ with special reference to need-persistive and ego-defensive reactions to frustration.
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 32, 64-74.
But for evidence for the opposing point of view, see B. Zeigarnik (1967) On finished and unfinished tasks. In W. D. Ellis (Ed.),
A source book of Gestalt psychology
. New York: Humanities Press.

9
M. J. Mahoney (1977) Publication prejudices:An experimental study of confirmatory bias in the peer review system.
Cognitive Therapy and Research, 1,
161-75.

10
S. J. Gould (1981)
The mismeasure of man
. New York: W. W. Norton, p. 89.

11
Ibid., p. 126.

12
P. B. Medawar (1984)
The limits of science
. New York: Harper & Row.

13
M. Gazzaniga (1985)
The social brain
. New York: Basic Books; R. E. Nisbett & T. D. Wilson (1977) Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental process.
Psychological Review, 84,
23159.

14
P. Diaconis (1978) Statistical problems in ESP research.
Science, 201,
131-36.

15
B. R. Forer (1949) The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility.
Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44,
118-23.

16
R. W. Clark (1984)
The survival of Charles Darwin: A biography of a man and an idea
. New York: Random House.

17
T. Gilovich (1983) Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44,
1110-1126.

18
R. Hastie & P. A. Kumar (1979) Person memory: Personality traits as organizing principles in memory for behavior.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37,
25-38; E. T. Higgins & J. A. Bargh (1987) Social cognition and social perception.
Annual Review of Psychology, 38,
369-425.

19
M. Ross & D. Holmberg (1990) Do wives have more vivid memories than their husbands of events in their relationship? Unpublished manuscript.

20
B. Zeigarnik (1967) On finished and unfinished tasks. In W. D. Ellis (Ed.),
A source book of Gestalt psychology
. New York: Humanities Press.

21
D. Goleman (1985)
Vital lies, simple truths: The psychology of self-deception
. New York: Simon & Schuster.

22
T. Gilovich & S. Madey (1990) Memory for one- and two-sided events. Unpublished manuscript.

23
Ibid.

24
E. Goffman (1963)
Behavior in public places: Notes on the social organization of gatherings
. New York: Free Press.

Chapter 5.
Seeing What We Want to See

1
D. Kahneman, J. L. Knetsch, & R. Thaler (in press) Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coase theorem.
Journal of Political Economy
; R. Thaler (1980) Toward a positive theory of consumer choice.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1,
3960.

2
D. O. Sears & R. E. Whitney (1973) Political persuasion. In I. deS. Pool, W. Schramm, F. W. Frey, N. Maccoby, & E. B. Parker (Eds.),
Handbook of communication
(pp. 253-89). Chicago: Rand-McNally.

3
D. Granberg & E. Brent (1983) When prophecy bends: The preference-expectation link in U.S. presidential elections, 1952-1980.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45,
477-91.

4
R. C. Wylie (1979)
The self-concept
(
Vol. 2
):
Theory and research on selected topics.
Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press.

5
W. B. G. Liebrand, D. M. Messick, & F. J. M. Wolters (1986) Why we are fairer than others: A cross-cultural replication and extension.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22,
590-604; D. M. Messick, S. Bloom, J. P. Boldizar, & C. D. Samuelson (1985) Why we are fairer than others.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 21,
480-500.

6
J. M. Fields & H. Schuman (1976) Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public.
Public Opinion Quarterly, 40,
427-48; H. J. O’Gorman & S. L. Carry (1976) Pluralistic ignorance—a replication and extension.
Public Opinion Quarterly, 40,
449-58.

7
O. Svenson (1981) Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
Acta Psychologica, 47,
143-48.

8
“Word Watch” (1989)
Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing, 2,
p. 5.

9
College Board (1976-1977)
Student descriptive questionnaire
. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service.

10
P. Cross (1977) Not
can
but
will
college teaching be improved?
New directions for Higher Education
. Spring, No. 17, 1-15. Reported in D. G. Myers (1990)
Social Psychology
(3rd Edition). New York: McGraw-Hill.

11
N. D. Weinstein (1980) Unrealistic optimism about future life events.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39,
806-820; N. D. Weinstein (1982) Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems.
Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 5,
441-60; N. D. Weinstein & E. Lachendro (1982) Ego-centrism and unrealistic optimism about the future.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8,
195-200.

12
“Economic predictions: Personal future seerns brightest.” (1989)
Psychology Today
, October, p. 16.

13
D. T. Miller & M. Ross (1975) Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
Psychological Bulletin, 82,
213-25; R. Nisbett & L. Ross (1980)
Human inference: Strategies and short-comings of social judgment.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; P. E. Tetlock & A. Levi (1982) Attribution bias: On the inconclusiveness of the cognition-motivation debate.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 18,
68-88.

14
R. R. Lau & D. Russell (1980) Attributions in the sports pages.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39,
29-38; C. Peterson (1980) Attribution in the sports pages: An archival investigation of the covariation hypothesis.
Social Psychology Quarterly, 43,
136-41.

15 R. M. Arkin & G. M. Maruyama (1979) Attribution, affect, and college exam performance.
Journal of Educational Psychology, 71,
85-93; M. H. Davis & W. G. Stephan (1980) Attributions for exam performance.
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 10,
235-48; T. M. Gilmour & D. W. Reid (1979) Locus of control and causal attribution for positive and negative outcomes on university examinations.
Journal of Research in Personality, 13,
154-60.

16
R. M. Arkin, H. Cooper & T. Kolditz (1980) A statistical review of the literature concerning the self-serving attribution bias in interpersonal influence situations.
Journal of Personality, 48,
435-48; L. Beckman (1970) Effects of students’ performance on teachers’ and observers’ attributions of causality.
Journal of Educational Psychology, 61,
76-82; P. E. Tetlock (1980) Explaining teacher explanations for pupil performance: An examination of the self-presentation interpretation.
Social Psychology Quarterly, 43,
283-90.

17
M. G. Wiley, K. S. Crittenden, & L. D. Birg (1979) Why a rejection? Causal attribution of a career achievement event.
Social Psychology Quarterly, 42,
214-22.

18
G. W. Allport (1937)
Personality: A psychological interpretation.
New York: Holt; F. Heider (1958)
The psychology of interpersonal relations
. New York: Wiley; M. Zuckerman (1979) Attribution of success and failure revisited, or: The motivational bias is alive and well in attribution theory.
Journal of Personality, 47,
245-87.

19
D. T. Miller & M. Ross (1975) Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
Psychological Bulletin, 82,
21325; R. Nisbett & L. Ross (1980)
Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment
. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.