Kilo Class (60 page)

The events that unfold in this book may at first seem difficult to understand. By that, I mean why should the United States have taken such extreme action against the Russians and the Chinese merely to prevent the delivery of seven submarines?

At first sight, it might seem reckless overreaction. But upon close examination, it becomes less violent and more logical. China
has
ordered this small fleet of Kilo Class submarines, brand-new, directly from the Russians. It is plain enough what they want them for — primarily to block the Taiwan Strait, to deny the customary rights of passage through an international strait. The issue is simple: China believes the strait is
not
international, that Taiwan is nothing but an offshore part of China. Therefore the waters that separate them are purely Chinese.

The Pentagon is well aware that ten Kilo Class submarines would permit the Chinese to keep at least four on patrol continuously. And the United States, which has occasionally passed Carrier Battle Groups through the strait, particularly when China has been seen to make threatening moves in the area, would be extremely wary of this. In my view, no US CVBG would venture into the strait in the clear face of a submarine threat, merely to make a political point. Just in case a big carrier should meet a similar fate to that of the
Thomas Jefferson
.

There is a xenophobia about China and its rulers. They have a large but ill-equipped Navy, essentially a coastal Navy, which operates almost exclusively in the waters off the extensive eastern shoreline, from the Mongolian border to the South China Sea. But China’s ambitions are no secret. They seek wealth and status, power and equality with the West. And they seek to end Taiwan’s present independence and return it to Greater China.

It ought not to be forgotten that when Chiang Kaishek left the mainland for Taiwan, he dispatched fourteen trainloads of magnificent artifacts and historic documents containing almost the entire dynastic heritage of China. Which is, broadly, why the great museum in Taipei is reputed to be the finest in the world.

Chinese determination to bring Taiwan back into the fold ought not to be underestimated. The order for the Kilos was, in my view, one of the first significant moves toward one of their ultimate goals.

First, they would close the strait to international passage. Then, as the submarine force built up in size, experience, confidence, and reputation, they would extend their patrol areas farther offshore, at once threatening the approaches to the island of Taiwan.

These patrol areas would ultimately extend up to five hundred miles offshore, wherever shallower waters favored the Kilos. Such a presence would greatly restrict US Naval protection for the Taiwanese, for whom an unavoidable sense of isolation would set in. Remember, submarines are best at sinking surface ships; the lesson of the
Thomas Jefferson
ought not to be ignored. The Kilo that nailed her did not stalk the carrier. It was just lying in wait, hardly moving, virtually silent, an explosive hole in the water.

With just four of these little Russian diesels on continuous patrol, China could swiftly show the Taiwan Strait no longer offered safe passage in international waters. The strait would actually become a no-go area. And clearing them out would be a long and very costly military operation, even if political considerations allowed. With a few more Kilos in place, Taiwan’s days as an independent nation could be numbered.

The United States has enormous financial interests in the island, which has in the last thirty years turned itself into one of the world’s major trading centers. I believe the United States would take very strong measures against any threat to that trade. In
Kilo Class
, the United States is prepared to do just that. And I doubt Patrick Robinson and I are all that wide of the mark.

Once on patrol, the Kilo is the devil’s own job to find and kill, even with the amazing air, surface, and subsurface assets of the US Navy. Simple logic will dictate that the Kilos are better caught and destroyed when they are far from home, before they are operationally ready, before they can be delivered.

Russia is presently refusing even to discuss putting a ban on the sale of major warships to China, or anywhere else for that matter. In the winter of 1997, they delivered a third Kilo to Iran, under a Russian flag, escorted by a Russian warship, as accurately forecast in
Nimitz Class
.

I also noticed that on page 94 of the 1997-98 edition of
Jane’s Fighting Ships
, the bible of the world’s Navies, the Russians are actually running a two-page color spread advertising their top export warship — beneath the headline: “
KILO CLASS SUBMARINE
— the only soundless creature in the sea.”

They then provide the St. Petersburg address, phone, fax, and E-mail for RUBIN, their central design bureau for marine engineering.

The West must give serious thought to this new aggressive marketing of the updated version of the old Soviet diesel-electric boat. And also to the new relationship between China and Russia. Because the men from Beijing are already Moscow’s biggest customers for newly built submarines.

I believe that
Kilo Class
is uncomfortably close to reality in its assessment of the intentions of all three of the big players. China wants Taiwan. Russia is desperate for cash and will sell a Kilo Class boat to anyone with $300 million. The United States cannot tolerate a serious threat to the continued independence of Taiwan. Speculation as to who will do what is the theme of this book.

Patrick has turned that theme into another page-turning thriller. The book is wracked with tension and punctuated by spectacular adventures, as Admiral Arnold Morgan’s men go to work in a variety of deep lonely waters. Far up in the North Atlantic, under the polar ice cap, off the frozen coastline of Siberia, even in the great lakes of central Russia north of the Volga. And, finally, around the frozen, barren island of Kerguelen, a place so remote, so rarely visited, it might not be inaccurate to describe it as the end of the world.

If you enjoyed
Nimitz Class
I believe you will love this book. Patrick Robinson, who helped me turn my own biography into a best-seller, has again written of complex matters in an easy, compelling style which can be understood by anyone… and should be read by everyone.

—
Sandy Woodward

Patrick Robinson lives in Dublin, Ireland, and on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. He is the bestselling author of three novels:
Nimitz Class, Kilo Class,
and
H.M.S Unseen.

True Blue
Nimitz Class
Kilo Class
H.M.S. Unseen
U.S.S. Seawolf
The Shark Mutiny
Barracuda 945

Cover design by Gene Mydlowski

Cover illustration © 1998 by Danilo Ducek