Patrick McLanahan Collection #1 (38 page)

“In general, sir, we identify no credible threat to U.S. military interests in Central Asia and only minor military threats to U.S. interests in neighboring areas such as the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, or Black Sea regions. However, we have identified an imminent and serious threat to U.S. commercial interests in Turkmenistan that could have grave repercussions in the entire region and neighboring regions.”

“You mean those insurgents and the threat to TransCal's pipelines,” Maureen Hershel interjected.

“Yes, ma'am,” Luger acknowledged. “In short, the TransCal pipelines—all of them—are effectively right now in the hands of the insurgents, and at this point they fully control them. They can shut them down, blow them up, hold them hostage, keep them running—whatever they want to do. The Turkmen army is virtually incapable of resisting them any longer.”

“It's worse than we thought, then,” Goff said.

“The insurgents control fifty percent of all the pipelines in the entire country—nearly ninety-five percent of the lines not owned by Russian oil companies,” Luger said. “Duty Officer, slide number one.” Several of the screens in front of them came to life, showing a map of Turkmenistan, the border region with Uzbekistan highlighted. “Here is a map of all of TransCal's pipelines—five billion dollars' worth, a joint venture by TransCal and the Turkmen government, transporting crude oil and natural gas from Turkmenistan's substantial known oil and gas fields to a few refineries, but mostly to users in twelve neighboring countries and to shipment points in Pakistan. Turkmenistan itself uses only about three percent of what it produces. Overall, the pipelines are modern, aboveground, well hardened against earthquake and storms, and mostly remotely monitored, with quarterly visual inspections.

“The biggest pipelines—both oil and gas lines—run right along the entire Turkmen-Uzbek border. As you can see, most of these lines are controlled by the insurgents, from the Tajikistan border to Chärjew. TransCal also has a pipeline system running from their wells in Uzbekistan south to the city of Mary, then south through Afghanistan to Pakistani ports on the Gulf of Oman; all the lines from Chärjew to Mary are under insurgent control, which means they control the lines south of there as well.

“The insurgents also control the TransCal pipelines running along the Kara Kum Canal, which runs east-west from the Iranian to the Uzbek borders. That canal is important in irrigation, flood control, and transportation in most of southern Turkmenistan. The insurgents can now cut off all petroleum deliveries running to the east and south, including oil and natural gas to Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent—we estimate nearly two hundred thousand barrels of crude oil and fifty million cubic feet of natural gas per day.

“TransCal has responded to the insurgents by paying them what amounts to ‘protection' money,” Luger went on. “We have located sizable numbers of Taliban forces, including Turkmen soldiers hired by the Taliban or by Turkmen defectors, at every pumping and control station east of the sixty-second-degree east longitude—over a hundred switches, pumping stations, check-valve stations, power stations, and control stations spread out across forty thousand square miles. We estimate that the numbers of Taliban troops are at least fifteen to eighteen thousand—over a third the size of the regular Turkmen army.”

“So you're saying it'll be real tough to kill these Taliban, is that what you're telling me, General?” Thorn asked irritably.

“The problem isn't with killing them—the problem is what they'll do once they find out they're under attack,” Dave Luger said. “Their forces are spread out over three hundred miles of pipeline. If Battalion A comes under attack, Battalion C a hundred miles away might have orders to blow up a pumping station or the pipeline itself.”

“I don't need you to present me with problems, son. I need you to give me answers,” Thorn said.

“The answer, sir: concentrate our forces on the most vital points in each section of the pipelines,” Luger went on. “We've identified six of the most vital upstream points. We can verify our analysis with TransCal, but this is our best guess. Duty Officer, next slide.” Six red triangles appeared on the map of Turkmenistan. “The most critical one is in Chärjew. It controls pipelines running east-west along the Amu Darya River and north-south from Uzbekistan. If we can take control of these six points, but especially the main control center in Chärjew, the insurgents can blow up almost every foot of the rest of the pipelines, and there won't be a major spill. The second most important control center is in Bayramaly, east of the city of Mary. This one controls oil flowing north-south to Pakistan through Afghanistan and also east-west.”

“Let me guess—you have six teams standing by ready to go,” Thorn said.

“Yes, sir,” Luger said. He motioned to Hal Briggs. “Colonel?”

“Thank you, sir,” Hal Briggs began, stepping forward. “Mr. President, Mr. Secretary, Miss Deputy Secretary, I'm Colonel Hal Briggs, commander of the Air Battle Force ground forces. The Air Battle Force concept puts together massive airpower with small, well-equipped, and highly mobile ground forces for its operations. We believe, and we can demonstrate, that this concept will be the primary way in which many conflicts are fought in the foreseeable future. The Air Battle Force concept emphasizes speed, precision striking power, and adaptability to a wide range of conflicts, from small-scale protective and defensive missions such as an embassy emergency, to antiterrorist operations, to military operations in urban terrain, to an all-out air, ground, naval, and space battle.

“In Turkmenistan we intend to field ten strike teams,” Briggs said. “Six teams will take the petro-control stations that General Luger mentioned; two teams will be in charge of securing the airfield at Chärjew, which will become our base of operations; two teams will man the supply aircraft and roam across the battle area, augmenting other teams as necessary.”

“Ten teams? Do you mean ten
battalions?
Ten brigades?” Defense Secretary Goff asked in surprise. “What do you intend to do? Insert the entire One Hundred and First Airborne Division into Turkmenistan?”

“No, sir. I intend to insert ten Battle Force teams—one hundred men and women,” Hal Briggs replied.

“
One hundred?
Are you kidding me?” Thorn asked incredulously. “You intend to capture those positions with just one—” And then he saw Chris Wohl, in the Tin Man battle armor with the microhydraulic exoskeleton, step over to Hal Briggs, and he understood. Wohl had put on his helmet during the briefing, so the visitors were getting the absolute full effect of the Tin Man battle armor system. “You've got
one hundred
soldiers with that getup?”

“Not quite, sir,” Briggs explained. “Each Battle Force team consists of five men with complete Tin Man battle-armor systems, plus three men with advanced combat-armor systems, or ACAS, and two conventionally equipped commandos. ACAS provides improved ballistic protection and the same communications and sensor capability—several steps up from standard-issue infantry units, but not as capable as the Tin Man system. Eventually all team members will have Tin Man systems, but we aren't ramped up to that level yet.

“The principal technologies behind the Air Battle Force teams is high-speed mobility, high-tech precision weapons, and advanced sensor capabilities,” Briggs said. “The Tin Man systems are designed for mobility and hitting power, and we're relying on them to hold the positions with support from ACAS troops.”

“It still seems pretty unlikely you can cover that entire pipe with one hundred guys, Colonel,” Hershel observed.

“Ma'am, combined with the air-operations force, we can,” Briggs said. “The Battle Force ground teams' assignment will be to break the grip of the Taliban on the six most vital control stations of the pipeline system, plus Chärjew Airport. The air-operations teams will be above us to take out any Taliban troop concentrations, but we need to be careful not to bomb too closely to the pipelines for fear of causing the very catastrophe we're trying to prevent.”

“The air-operations force will initially consist of StealthHawk unmanned stealth combat air vehicles flying round-the-clock patrols over eastern Turkmenistan,” David Luger said. “The StealthHawks are launched by EB-52 bombers, EB-1C bombers, and other support aircraft. The unmanned aircraft serve as both reconnaissance and defensive attack platforms to protect the ground forces. If necessary, the patrols will be augmented by manned EB-52 Megafortress and EB-1C Vampire bomber attacks on Turkmen air-defense locations, protected by AL-52 Dragon airborne-laser aircraft. Once we have control of the skies over eastern Turkmenistan, we can withdraw the manned aircraft.”

“Sounds like you've got it all worked out,” President Thorn said sourly. “But I know for damned sure that if it sounds too easy, there's always a catch.” He turned to Patrick McLanahan and asked pointedly, “What's the catch here, General?”

“The catch, sir, is that the Air Battle Force's mission is to go in fast and hit hard—we're not set up to protect or hold territory,” Patrick responded. “We can defend those positions only for so long. Eventually you need to send in Marines or regular-army units to take over until Turkmen forces get reorganized.”

“If there's even a Turkmen government to command them,” Acting Secretary of State Hershel added.

“Frankly, Miss Hershel, if the Turkmen government doesn't want to play, we shouldn't be in there risking American lives to defend them—or TransCal's oil,” Thorn said. “TransCal can continue to pay protection money, or they can bug out, too. We go in with friendly forces solidly behind us or we don't go in at all.”

“Roger that, sir,” Patrick McLanahan agreed enthusiastically. “The Gurizev regime is staunchly pro-Russian.”

“Yes, but who speaks for the Turkmen people?” Maureen Hershel asked. “You've mentioned a lot about TransCal and the Russians, but what about the people?”

“The people seem to be siding with the Taliban insurgents more and more,” David Luger responded. “In general, the Taliban insurgents have treated the people of Turkmenistan and army conscripts with kindness and generosity, and at the same time they've shown how brutal they could be with the professional Turkmen soldiers and the Russians.”

“Sounds like two different people calling the shots to me,” Maureen Hershel said. “Maybe the Taliban leader is the brutal one and the military guy knows better than to alienate the people while occupying their land.”

“I think you're right, Miss Hershel,” Patrick said. “Sergeant Major Wohl interrogated one of the Taliban commanders on our last mission inside Turkmenistan, and his observations are in line with that.”

“Oh? Mind filling us in, Sergeant Major?” Goff asked.

Chris Wohl removed his Tin Man helmet before he responded. “I spoke with a man who called himself Jalaluddin Turabi, sir. He said his commander's name is Wakil Mohammad Zarazi. We ran their names through intelligence files. Both men have been trained by foreign countries for military and terrorist operations, but Wakil Zarazi was identified and specially trained as a religious zealot. We don't know much more about them, except for this: When I interrogated Turabi, he described himself as a jihadi—a holy warrior. He mentioned Zarazi's rank—a general—but said he himself did not have any rank, although he was clearly the leader of the detachment we encountered. He seemed to indicate that Zarazi was on some kind of quest, some sort of mission—not a jihad, or at least not the same holy war that Turabi thought he was on.”

“We consider this a fairly significant ideological break,” Patrick said. “Taliban soldiers on a jihad are usually tasked with disrupting enemy lines of communication and obtaining money and supplies for their clans. This appears to be what Turabi's mission is. But Zarazi is obviously doing far more. If politicians like Gurizev and fighters like Turabi can be convinced to side with the West in exchange for a greater share in the oil profits and a greater voice in their government, maybe they can be convinced to accept U.S. military and financial assistance in setting up a representative government.”

Now I understand why this guy is being considered as President Thomas Thorn's national security adviser, Maureen Hershel thought. That is exactly the kind of half-military, half-political strategic advice Thorn needs—but he rarely gets it because he's beleaguered with the minutiae of the kind of administration he designed. Thomas Thorn didn't believe in getting the United States involved with other countries' problems, so he had no one in his inner circle thinking or studying those problems and how it might benefit the United States to help.

“General McLanahan, you haven't told me anything that leads me to think we need to change our position on Central Asia,” Thorn said. “I don't see that a military option is called for.”

“We would suggest other options: either support Gurizev's government, the one that signed the deals with TransCal Petroleum, or replace it,” Patrick McLanahan suggested.

“Replace it with what?” Hershel asked. “Gurizev is little more than a dictator.”

“Why not start with Jalaluddin Turabi?” Patrick replied.

“Turabi—you mean
support a Taliban insurgent as the new president of Turkmenistan?
” Robert Goff exclaimed. “We've spent several years and billions of dollars trying to eliminate the Taliban. Surely you can't expect us to support a Taliban terrorist to be president?”

“Based on the sergeant major's observations, I believe that Turabi is a senior officer in this Taliban army—maybe even the deputy commander,” Patrick said. “It's possible he could be the real military brains behind this operation as well. If so, he embarked on this mission simply because he's obligated to follow his leader, Zarazi, in supporting their clan. Zarazi pushes them forward, but it's Turabi who actually accomplishes the missions. Zarazi kills with vengeance; Turabi is praised for his kindness, compassion, and generosity. Zarazi is a zealot, a wild ideological dog—he probably can't be bargained with. Turabi is the clearheaded one. If he's approachable and interested, we should try to make a deal with him.”