Razing Beijing: A Thriller (80 page)

CIA Director Lester Burns read similar sentiments in the
faces of the other members of the President’s cabinet. They had failed, all of
them, to nudge the President from his view that U.S. retaliation with Iran be moral
and therefore limited. Accordingly, Iran was to be shown they were at risk of
being knocked out of the petroleum business altogether, the bulk of which no
longer served Western economies in any case. The first wave of cruise missiles
and bombers would target the heart and soul of Iranian industry, striking the
Kharg Island refinery and Ahwaz oil tanker loading facilities, as well as the
huge Abadan refinery complex on Shatt al-Arab, once the largest of its kind in
the world. The objective handed down to Defense Secretary Daley was to
neutralize over four million barrels per day of refining capacity—roughly a
third of Iran’s total—and disable virtually all of the Islamic Republic’s
busiest tanker terminals. In the process of striking this blow to the heart of the
Iranian economy, the President was firm on his edict that direct engagement
with the Iranian military be held to an absolute minimum.

“Beyond the impact on world oil markets, there is tactical
risk associated with immolating their petroleum infrastructure,” the defense
secretary proceeded to caution his boss. “Imagine if this were to become a
protracted conflict, and here we’ve effectively starved their ability to fuel a
conventional war. Tehran would recognize this, perhaps immediately. If so,
their strategy might then be to seize assets from one or more neighboring oil
producing entity states—those surrounding the Caspian Sea come to mind. That
theatre of operations might be problematic for our carrier groups in both the
Gulf and the Med. Such a response also might threaten to draw the Russians into
the fray. But nothing—
nothing
—troubles me more than a doctrine that has
as its basis the attack of a nation-state, on this scale, while intentionally
leaving their military unscathed and capable of counterattack. Sir, this isn’t
Afghanistan—Iran has a modern military.”

The defense secretary’s words ‘conventional war’ hung in
the air as one-by-one the advisors chimed in with their dissent.

CIA Director Burns looked over the conformal conic
projection maps spread out on the table. The original mission of the carrier
groups most recently sent to the region was to thwart any more shipments of
North Korean ICBMs from reaching Iranian ports. Neither the CIA nor Mossad had
any idea how many others had already arrived, and whether or not any were fully
operational. Neither they nor Mossad were certain of the origin of the uranium
isotopes released from the so-called Pakistani nuclear test in the Indian Ocean—so
called, because Mossad believed that the test actually had been conducted on an
Iranian device, using Iranian enriched uranium. It was no half-baked theory,
Burns thought. A known
nuclear
power, Islamabad, secretly teams with an
aspiring nuclear-tipped
missile
power, Tehran. They conspire to produce
a reduced throw-weight nuclear warhead, and a mutually beneficial objective is
achieved with the least international reprisal. But the President was aware of all
of this, and Burns saw no benefit repeating it for a third time in as many
hours.

Lester Burns watched the President’s detached stare drift
over the scribbled maps of Central and Middle East Asia. The fact of the matter
was, bitter irony of ironies, missile defense had increasingly become their
only ace in the hole. But the SBIRS Low satellite constellation remained
incomplete, and Congress was balking on the final two Vandenberg launches,
without which even Aegis warships had no guarantee of detecting a ballistic
missile launch in time for boost-phase intercept. Sure as hell Secretary Daley
and the military brass were attuned to this. There were also more than nuclear
warheads to worry about.

Burns cleared his throat. “Mr. President, I remind you that
we currently have no dependable means of defending against an ICBM missile launch.”

“Neither do they,” President Denis observed, much to the
surprise of more than one or two in the Situation Room. “Neither do they, and I
have this feeling we simply cannot sit idly by in the face of repeated attack.”
Denis let out a sigh. “Our only moral recourse is an eye for an eye. They’ll at
least understand that, even though it is probably not legal.”

In a display of angry frustration, Secretary Daley’s face
turned red. “This is kicking open the proverbial hornet’s nest,” he said to the
President. “It’s chances of success are questionable, to say the least.”

“Then we’ll try something else. I’m not interested in throwing
our weight around. But I can deal with the consequences of our own behavior, so
long as it’s moral behavior.”

Seated beside the President was Aaron Davi, Chief of Staff,
a quiet and thoughtful man, aware of his limitations to contribute to such
debates. Davi was a veteran of three presidential campaigns and an accomplished
speechwriter after the second, a successful election. For years he had harbored
ambitions to seek elected office himself, in Congress, maybe even the senate. But
in deciding he hadn’t the stomach for unabashed personal conflict, Davi
realized his strength was securing office for others.

“Mr. President, the American people smell blood,” Davi
said, sensing in the lull an appropriate time to mention results of his poll. “There
should be ample maneuvering room for whatever you decide.”

THE PRESIDENT OF THE
UNITED STATES
paused in order to flip a page of his pre-written speech. Returning
his eyes to the teleprompter, his expression took on a perceptibly harder edge;
jaw muscles flexed, the deep-set eyes narrowed, right slightly more so than
left—those the world over whose profession rewarded the practiced control and
interpretation of such gestures admired the subtle theatrics.

“One cowardice looms larger than even that of the zealots
who commit these acts. I speak of the masterminds who we now know are behind
them, the leadership of Iran. For a time, strides had been made improving the
historically strained relations between our two nations, notwithstanding their
collusion with other OPEC members to wage economic war by manipulating oil
markets—a violation of laws which govern international trade. Yet we Americans
rise to meet any challenge, whether by innovating means of defending ourselves and
our allies, developing new technologies for preserving our climate or, yes,
extracting energy resources from within our own borders. Energy is the
lifeblood of our economy, the source of our American dream, which has for
generations captivated the hearts and minds of all in the world who yearn to be
free. And so we are left to conclude these violent acts are merely the latest
in a broad and deliberate assault. Acts of terrorism on American soil
will
not go unpunished
.” The President brought clenched fists down onto the
desktop in tempo with his remark.

“I call upon all principled Iranian leaders to discard
their hollow, theocratic invective and seize this opportunity. Banish cowardice
among your ranks. Elevate statesmanship in its place. Both the Iranian President
and Supreme Spiritual Leader have the moral duty to denounce these violent acts
by a handful of deranged zealots. Support our efforts to bring justice to these
individuals before the International Criminal Court. Finally, once and for all,
embrace the community of nations in their efforts to eradicate any and all
terrorist organizations. A civil society such as exists in Iran should
recognize these for the reasonable requests that they are. These requests are
consistent with the laws and religions of both our great peoples.

“Let me be perfectly clear.” The President folded his hands
over his notes and fixed his gaze on the lens of the camera. “Iran’s sanction
of these terrorists is a tacit declaration of war on the United States. Tonight,
with support of the congressional leadership, I issue a warning. Moments ago an
emergency Joint Resolution appeared on my desk. This resolution, which I signed
into law, stipulates a period of forty-eight hours for Iran to commit to these
very reasonable requests. Following this period and absent that commitment, the
United States shall formally declare war on the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“It is with deep regret that I make my final announcement
this evening. We did not initiate this conflict. Americans generally loathe
violence and war. Some harbor doubts of our resolve to endure hardship. Despite
evidence to the contrary, many have come to expect America’s tendency to shrink
from a fight, to indulge our economic interests above all. As President, I
regret these sentiments. They give me no choice but to ensure that our
ultimatum be delivered unambiguously.

“As a medical doctor, I sanctify the value of human rights.
The measured response that our military will soon inflict is specifically
tailored to minimize the injury of everyday Iranian citizens, with whom the
United States has no quarrel.

“Our hearts tonight are with American women and men who
stand in harms way. Thank you, and good evening.”

THE VOICE OF THE CHINESE
interpreter
continued several seconds beyond the president’s closing. The wide-screen
television in the General Secretary’s briefing chamber momentarily switched
broadcasts from the Oval Office to the face of the political correspondent, and
became blank.

One by one, heads fell into alignment toward the figure
slumped in the chair on the dais at the head of the room, where the Communist
Party General Secretary’s watery eyes were fixed on the floor.

Seated not far from the faltering leader was Finance
Minister Huang Yi. Mindful of the precarious source of his own fragile
authority, the vice premier sought to deflect attention by leveling his stare
on the military intelligence chief seated in the opposite corner of the room. As
the presumptive heir, others followed his gaze. “Your analysis, Comrade General?”

General Gao, Chief of the PLA Second Department, opened his
folder of prepared notes. “Our reconnaissance confirms much of their
president’s closing remarks. Their carrier group
USS Ronald Reagan
is
several hundred miles south of Karachi, presumably on its way toward the Gulf
of Oman to join
John C. Stennis
. Various sources indicate a disturbing
mobilization of naval assets on both coasts of North America, Pearl Harbor, and
Yokosuka.
USS George Washington
is positioned in the eastern
Mediterranean. Excluding carrier-based aircraft, some two hundred US transport,
multi-role bomber and air superiority fighter aircraft have been re-deployed
from bases in North America to stations in Bulgaria, Britain, and Turkey. These
include the tactically superior Joint Strike Fighter, as skirmishes between US
and Iranian aircraft have already demonstrated.”

Gao looked up from his notes. “These conventional forces
greatly exceed those of our Iranian ally. It is safe to presume, then, that the
Americans anticipate additional adversaries being drawn into the conflict. Or
they are staging a display to prevent it. Diplomatic traffic between Arab
governments is fervent. Intelligence reports provide no reason at this time to
expect that Israel will directly participate in the American assault.”

Rong Peng, Vice Chairman of the Military Affairs
Commission, scribbled absently on a piece of paper. He glanced up at General
Gao, their eyes meeting briefly. “Our sources suggest that Denis fiercely
resisted taking this action. This is another American leader who is
ideologically averse to their military and intelligence institutions. That
being said, he is a short-tempered man who finds himself increasingly reacting
to events, is prone to act on impulse, even emotionally, if pushed far enough,
or as a means to score domestic political victory.

“He has the support of their legislature,” Huang observed.

“Understandably so. The president all but acknowledged how
badly the US economy has faltered thanks to our special arrangement with OPEC. Remember
the political pressure he and others face in the era of faltering American
prosperity. It was on a mandate to resolve the economy and medical care that
Denis won his election.” Rong smiled. “My own ploy to extract American missile
shield concessions in return for our intervention with OPEC has run its course,
without the results Denis had sought. It might only have been a matter of time
before military tactics were employed.”

Finance Minister Huang looked puzzled. “Tehran will never
comply with his demands.”

“Not peacefully.”

“Then it would appear Tehran is caught up in some sort of
suicide pact. Or, is perhaps the evidence which the president cited actually
bogus?” The finance minister’s tone was openly skeptical. “Do you, or do you not
believe Iran is behind the terrorist assaults?”

Rong appeared to all in the room to be enjoying his upper
hand over Huang, as usual, in all matters relating to military affairs. “Despite
vehement denials by the Iranian foreign ministry, our deepest source confirms that
the evidence presented to their president appears genuine. Bogus or not, the
president has set his course of action.”

Huang said, “If Iran is indeed provoking them, then the
president might be intentionally misleading his people when he really intends...what?
To seize Iran’s oil fields?”

General Gao said, “Recent history suggests we would be wise
to expect a protracted occupation by American forces and the disruption of
regional trade.”

“Including crude oil shipments to Chinese ports,” Rong
added at the predetermined cue.

That recognition finally sank in and generated a murmur of
alarm.

“The Americans are not blundering idiots,” Huang countered.
“They know that Tehran possesses fissionable material, perhaps even a nuclear device.”