Reimagining India: Unlocking the Potential of Asia’s Next Superpower (55 page)
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Authors: McKinsey,Company Inc.
India GDP ($ billion, in real 2000 terms)
The economy will keep growing along with the population. From 1990 to 2005, India averaged annual GDP growth of 6%. That could rise to 7.5% per year through 2030. In 2013, however, India’s economy stumbled and many feared a return to pre-1991 growth rates of 5% or slower.
In the 40 years from 1971 to 2011, the urban population rose by 230 million. It will take only half that time to add the next 250 million urban Indians. Midsized cities such as Bangalore, center of the technology industry, and Pune, an automotive and pharmaceutical hub, are likely to grow faster than megacities such as Mumbai and Delhi.
POPULATION (BILLIONS)
India will soon become the most populous country in the world and will continue to get wealthier and more urban. Some of India’s troubles will get bigger, too.
Growth will help transform a country where many struggle to meet basic needs into one with a middle class
*
of 583 million people.
% OF POPULATION IN EACH ANNUAL INCOME BRACKET (THOUSAND RUPEES)
*
Middle class households are those with income between 200,000−1,000,000 rupees per year.
Prosperity will improve millions of lives. But as demand increases for houses, cars, and electricity, the impact on the environment also grows.
TOTAL FLOOR SPACE
Billions of square meters
VEHICLE FLEET
Millions
TOTAL POWER DEMAND
Terawatt hours (TWh)
Even if economic growth is slower than expected, India’s emission of heat-trapping gasses into the atmosphere will increase dramatically.
Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division, McKinsey Global Institute
INDIA’S FUTURE: PROMISE AND PROBLEMS
The effects of higher carbon emissions from India will be felt worldwide. They may hit hardest in places that are already most at risk from climate change–related calamities.
UNITED NATIONS RANKING OF LARGEST CITIES AT HIGHEST RISKS OF NATURAL DISASTERS
DROUGHTS
1.
Kolkata
2. Karachi
3. Los Angeles
4.
Chennai
5. Lahore
6.
Ahmadabad
7. Santiago
8. Belo Horizonte
FLOODS
1. Tokyo
2.
Delhi
3. Mexico City
4. New York
5. Shanghai
6. São Paulo
7. Dhaka
8.
Kolkata
Even if efforts to reduce the growth of carbon emissions succeed, India’s environment will strain to meet the demands of growth.
WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 2030 (BILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS)
A more crowded landscape will also further pressure Indian wildlife, such as the endangered tigers who have already lost most of their habitat. Greater wealth, though, makes it more likely that India will be able to support wildlife programs such as one that seeks to double the global tiger population by 2020.
Present-day tiger reserves