Shattered Trident (39 page)

Myles winced. Many of the other cabinet members sat in shocked silence.

“And that’s an optimistic assessment, correct?” asked Myles hesitantly.

McHenry looked downward, disheartened. “Yes, Mr. President, I’m afraid so,” she answered.

“I see.” The president paused, absorbing the dreadful news. Myles removed his glasses and rubbed his eyes, then clearing his throat said, “All right, Joyce, just skip to the bottom line.”

“Yes, sir. If this war continues for another two or three weeks, the economy will very likely drop into a major recession, with unemployment rates exceeding the historical norms for the last seventy-five years. If the fighting goes on for more than a month, two months at the outside, the possibility of a depression becomes … unpleasantly high.”

“Two months?” cried Geisler in disbelief. “How can our economy be ruined in such a short period of time?”

“As with mechanical systems, Malcolm, economic trends also experience inertia,” explained McHenry. “Even if we could stop this war right now, its aftereffects would still be felt for months, perhaps years. The longer the fighting goes on, the steeper the downturn in our economy becomes, which means a deeper bottoming out further down the road—one that could take us a decade to crawl out of.”

The cabinet meeting abruptly went quiet; everyone’s morale was in shambles, crushed by McHenry’s devastating projection. Uneasy with the depressing silence, Kirkpatrick moved on to the next topic; there was still more ground to cover.

“Mr. President,” he began. “We’ve confirmed that the PLAN was able to secure Spratly Island, and the airfield is largely intact. China did lose a Yuzhao-class amphibious assault ship, an old Jiangwei II-class frigate, and a container ship carrying the garrison’s equipment, so their hold is a bit tenuous.”

Myles nodded. “Casualties?” he asked.

“High, Mr. President. The Chinese probably lost more men because of the amphibious assault ship, but the Vietnamese squadron was all but annihilated. Only a single damaged patrol boat returned to port this morning.” Kirkpatrick saw the pained expression on Myles’s face. “They did stop the Chinese southern thrust,” added the national security advisor.

“I gathered that, Ray,” exclaimed Myles testily. “But the cost in territory and blood is making it even harder for either side to see the folly of this war. Both sides are blind to the fact that there can be no winners in this conflict, only losers.” Kirkpatrick’s jaw tightened slightly, as he struggled for words. The president saw his advisor’s reaction and realized the man was just as frustrated as he was.

Sighing deeply, Myles said, “I’m sorry, Ray. I know you’re just trying to do your job.”

Kirkpatrick bowed slightly, silently accepting the president’s apology.

“How is our submarine spoiler campaign coming along?” inquired Myles, changing the subject.

Kirkpatrick turned to Joanna, and gestured for her to address the question.

“Not as well as we would like, Mr. President,” she began. “It’s getting more difficult for our subs to break up an attack.”

“They’re getting acclimated to our presence,” Myles observed.

“Yes, Mr. President. I spoke with Captain Simonis this morning and he said their effectiveness had dropped considerably in the last couple of days. On average, they were only able to interrupt Littoral Alliance submarine attacks about one-third of the time. And there has been a noticeable increase in aggressive behavior as well.”

Myles’s forehead wrinkled. “Aggressive behavior? Explain, Joanna.”

“Littoral Alliance submarines now typically use active sonar to track and harass our submarines while they carry out their attacks against Chinese merchant ships. Extensive use of active sonar is very atypical submariner behavior; they are making it clear that they know we are there, and they aren’t being shy about it.

“Captain Simonis has also seen a disturbing new tactic involving Littoral Alliance submarines maneuvering very close to our boats. There was a close pass this morning by a Japanese submarine with USS
Santa Fe,
a ‘near collision,’ as the commanding officer called it. When combined with the deliberate ramming of one of Commander Mitchell’s UUVs by the Indian Akula, the squadron commodore believes that a new, and more dangerous phase of the spoiler campaign has begun.”

“I’m probably going to regret asking this next question, but does Captain Simonis have any recommendations?”

“Yes, Mr. President. He strongly recommends getting our boats out of the war zone,” Joanna replied quickly. Then, taking a deep breath, added more slowly, “And I, reluctantly, agree with him.”

Myles was surprised by Patterson’s admission, and it showed. “I must say, I’m a bit astonished, Joanna. I thought you were supportive of the spoiler strategy. What changed your mind?”

Joanna was torn, emotionally. She desperately wanted to be a loyal subordinate, and supportive of the president’s policy. But now, she felt another equally strong force pulling at her, placing her loyalties in tension. Her bonds to the submarine community ran deep, and she had many friends who still served on the black boats. Subconsciously, she was very protective of the men and women who made up their crews, and she had difficulty putting them in harm’s way, especially when the military or political gain was so meager. It didn’t help that her husband and Charles Simonis, both former submarine commanding officers, had such diverse views on the matter.

Lowell Hardy, on the one hand, had counseled her to work hard to advance the president’s goals even when she had nagging doubts. The officers and crews on the submarines served at the pleasure of the president; he had the moral authority to place them at risk if he felt it was necessary. Simonis, on the other hand, objected to putting his people on the line with rules of engagement so restrictive that the loss of one of his boats was a very distinct possibility. He’d salute and carry out his orders when told, but until then he’d fight like a rabid dog for his people’s well-being. Patterson respected both men’s views, and it didn’t help that both men were right.

And then there was Jerry Mitchell. Jerry’s boat was up against the best submarine in the Littoral Alliance. Normally, his advanced
Virginia
-class submarine would be the hands-down winner in any fight against an Improved Akula. But the spoiler campaign required Jerry to give up many of his advantages, thus significantly leveling the playing field. The thought of Jerry’s boat being sunk because she blindly supported the president’s strategy left her cold. And tucked away in the back of her mind was the memory of another run-in with an Akula-class submarine, one that nearly killed
Memphis
and everyone on board, including her. More than once in the past week she had awakened from a troubled sleep, sweating, after reliving that nightmare.

“Mr. President, I
begrudgingly
supported your policy because there was a legitimate political benefit to the United States, and the risk to our people was fairly low. I no longer believe that is the case. The risk has grown significantly, while the benefit has all but disappeared. And to be frank, I have a very good friend who is putting his life, and those of his crew, on the line, for what I see as little to no gain.” Patterson swallowed hard after she finished her explanation.

Myles nodded soberly. “Thank you, Joanna. I appreciate your candor. But as hard as that decision was, I still think putting some brakes, however small, on this conflict is in our best interests.”

“Mr. President,” Alexander interrupted. “As much as I hate to argue with you, how can you say we’re having a slowing effect on this war? From where I sit, it’s accelerating away from us. The Philippines’ decision to join the Littoral Alliance was a very rude surprise. And now there is evidence that their ‘prophet,’ Dr. Komamura, went to Indonesia, and possibly Malaysia, to convince them to join as well. If both countries do sign on, China will be completely surrounded along her maritime border by a hostile alliance.”

Andy Lloyd picked up right after Alexander. “The demarches we received yesterday accused us of being rather one-sided in our execution, as the vast majority of the attacks we’ve interfered with are those by the Littoral Alliance. If we continue with the spoiler strategy, we are risking alienating countries who have been our allies for decades.”

“Ones whose economies, when combined, rival China’s and will probably recover faster once this is all over and done with,” added McHenry.

Myles grimaced unhappily, his voice loaded with frustration. “Andy, I know you and Joyce have presented arguments that we should join this alliance and help rein in China’s aggressive behavior. But do you
really
want to go to war with another nuclear power?”

Before Lloyd could respond, Kirkpatrick barged in. “I don’t think that’s a viable option, Mr. President, for the simple reason that I don’t believe the Littoral Alliance wants us to join.”

“Ray, what do you base that on?” cried Lloyd, clearly miffed.

“Andy, everything this new alliance has done is in complete conformity with Dr. Komamura’s book. If he is their guiding light, their ‘prophet’ as Greg put it, then he will be strongly advising the alliance leadership to
not
include us. The chapter in his book that addresses relationships with the United States, ‘Sailing Alone,’ is a strident argument for Asian countries to distance themselves from our ‘overbearing’ policies. Have you had a chance to read it yet?”

Irritated and embarrassed, Lloyd replied, “No, no, not in its entirety. I’ve only skimmed some of it.”

“I strongly recommend it to all of you,” Kirkpatrick insisted firmly, as he looked around the conference room table. “This book provides considerable insight on the beliefs and goals of this new alliance. Sun Tzu put it best—know your enemy, people.”

“All right, Ray, you’ve made your point,” admonished Myles while gesturing for Lloyd to calm down. “So why don’t we just cut to the chase and have you provide your recommendation. Not that you have a strong opinion on the matter.”

Kirkpatrick chuckled; the president’s light humor successfully dispatched the growing tension amongst his key advisors.

“My apologies, Mr. President. I didn’t mean to preach. But there is one point of agreement between the People’s Republic of China and the Littoral Alliance—neither side wants the United States to become involved in this conflict. Therefore, I recommend we comply with their mutual desire and withdraw our forces from the South and East China Seas. Regardless of which side ultimately prevails, it is in our best interests,
long-term
interests, to be perceived as neutral.”

Myles leaned back in his chair as he considered Kirkpatrick’s suggestion. The president knew that his national security advisor never took a strong position on anything without first dissecting every fact. And yet, Lloyd and McHenry also had strong arguments. The president loathed situations such as this when he had a diametrically opposed cabinet. It made the job of making a decision far more difficult, as he respected the views and opinions of each of his closest advisors. This time, Myles chose to do something he hated almost as much—he’d kick the can down the road.

“Okay, Ray, I’ll make a deal with you. I’ll postpone a final decision on the spoiler campaign until after Andy and I meet with the Japanese ambassador this evening. After I hear the alliance’s position from the horse’s mouth, then we’ll sit down and hammer it out.”

Kirkpatrick nodded his head, disappointed. But a delay did make some sense, particularly if the Japanese ambassador confirmed his understanding of Komamura’s writings.

Lloyd was equally unhappy, but more vocal. “Mr. President, this will reinforce your opponent’s view that you are a fence-sitter. You’re taking a beating in the polls. The perception is that you are too weak to take a strong stand, or that you don’t know what to do. The election is only two months away; this perception has to be changed, and soon.”

“Andy, I’m being pilloried by both parties for not articulating a firm position—they want me to choose sides,” Myles remarked. “Regardless of what I do, someone will be unhappy with it. If both my own party and the Republicans are upset with my actions, then maybe, just maybe, it’s the right one. I’m going to go with my instinct on this one, Andy. We’ll wait till after our meeting tonight. Then we’ll know where we stand.”

17

EXECUTION

8 September 2016

0800 Local Time

August 1st Building, Ministry of National Defense Compound

Beijing, People’s Republic of China

Chen had agreed to let General Hu present his plan, not because he intended to approve it, but because he was frankly curious. The Second Artillery Corps controlled China’s nuclear ballistic missiles, but it also had an impressive arsenal of conventional weapons. They were already being used against Vietnam with some effect, but Hu wanted a much broader strike against the entire alliance, one with political, as well as military effects.

“The alliance nations have made it easy for us to avoid killing Americans,” Hu argued. “They’ve evacuated the bases they operate jointly with the United States. The only exception is Clark Field in the Philippines, but the CJ-10 cruise missile is accurate enough to attack only areas where the Japanese units are located.”

Hu brought up the last slide. It was a summary, showing arrows reaching out from China toward South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Only India was spared, to avoid any possible nuclear misunderstandings.

“We will strike ten targets in three countries, a mix of military and economic targets related to their own energy infrastructure. The plan uses ninety-four missiles, approximately one-fifth of our conventional long-range inventory. It does not call on our standing forces near Taiwan, and does not affect our campaign in Vietnam. With this heavy blow, we will bring the war to the citizens of the Littoral Alliance.” Hu sat down with a pleased expression.

General Shi Peng did not look pleased at all. At Chen’s request, he’d listened to Hu’s plan, but the instant the missile commander was finished, Shi quickly spoke up. “I know you’re eager to bring your forces into the struggle, General, but this ‘heavy blow’ is also an open challenge to the United States. We already have U.S. military units deploying to the Philippines, where before there were almost none, and they’re reinforcing their troops in South Korea.”