Soccer Men (47 page)

Next Palacios-Huerta tests the kicker’s success rate with each strategy. The kicker should have an equally high scoring rate whether he shoots right, middle, or left. But both Argentina’s Sergio Agüero and Germany’s Miroslav
Klose, for instance, score more often when shooting right of the keeper. That would logically encourage them to aim right on Saturday.

Only rarely does Palacios-Huerta find a kicker with a very skewed strategy, but England’s Frank Lampard is such a man. For years, Lampard randomized his kicks beautifully. But this season, notes Palacios-Huerta, “he has kicked thirteen out of fifteen times to the right of the goalkeeper—and the two lefts were in the same game when he had to retake the same penalty three times.”

No wonder Lampard has recently developed a habit of missing penalties. Keepers are figuring him out. Portsmouth’s David James, for instance, chose the correct corner for Lampard’s penalty for Chelsea in the FA Cup final—perhaps with help from Palacios-Huerta, who had sent Portsmouth a briefing note before the game. In the event, Lampard’s shot went wide. Admittedly, Kevin-Prince Boateng missed his penalty for Portsmouth in the match, but then he had ignored Palacios-Huerta’s advice to kick left of keeper Petr Cech.

The patterns of individuals are only a secondary matter, though. The most important moment in any shoot-out occurs before it even starts. The referee tosses a coin, and the captain who calls correctly gets to decide whether his team takes the first kick. Always kick first, says Palacios-Huerta. The team that takes the first penalty wins 60 percent of shoot-outs. That’s because the team going second shoots under great pressure: It keeps having to score just to stay in the game. In Tuesday’s shoot-out, for instance, Japan was the likely loser the moment Paraguay’s captain, Justo Villar, won the toss and chose to start. Paraguay duly won.

Few seem to know this initial advantage exists, notes Palacios-Huerta. Television commentators rarely even mention the toss. Bookmakers don’t shift their odds immediately after the toss is done—a mistake from which gamblers could benefit. And at Euro 2008, Italy’s captain, Gianluigi Buffon, may have decided the outcome of the tournament when he won the toss for a shoot-out against Spain and let the Spaniards shoot first. They won, of course—not necessarily gladdening the heart of the Basque Palacios-Huerta—and then won the tournament.

Ignorance about penalties could decide this World Cup, too. Palacios-Huerta sighs, “I don’t think serious analysis of the data has arrived yet in soccer, but it’s coming. I think the world will be a different place in a decade or so.”

Abramovich, Roman

AC Milan soccer club

Capello as coach of

and Drogba

and Gattuso

and Kaká

and Seedorf

and Shevchenko

Adams, Tony

Adebayor, Emmanuel

Adu, Freddy

Agüero, Sergio

Aimar, Pablo

Ajax Amsterdam soccer club

and Cruijff

and Ibrahimovic

and Litmanen

and Van der Sar

Ajax Cape Town

Ali, Muhammad

Allardyce, Sam

Allianz Arena in Munich

Allison, Malcolm

Aloisi, John

Alonso, Xabi

Altobelli, Alessandro

Anatomy of England
(Wilson)

Anderson

Anelka, Nicolas

boycotting practice/forty-five day ban

conversion to Islam/change of name

incomprehension of outsiders

joining Real Madrid

learning confidence

penalty kick vs. Van der Sar

physical description of

and Wenger

Anfield stadium

Aparicio, Don Salvador Ricardo

Aragones, Luis

Archetti, Eduardo

Argentina

football ancestry of

Maradona as coach

match vs. England in World Cup of 1998

pibe
and Messi/Maradona

World Cup in 1978

World Cup of 1986

World Cup of 2006

Arnesen, Frank

Arsenal soccer club

and Anelka

and Cole

“controlling Premiership league,”

and Fabregas

and Henry

and Owen

and Wenger

and Will

Atletico Madrid

Auclair, Philippe

Aulas, Jean-Michel

Auset, Manuel

Australia

Autobiographies of soccer players

Back-pass rule

Bad as I Wanna Be
(Rodman)

Bale, Gareth

Ball, Alan

Ball is Round, The
(Goldblatt)

Ballack, Michael

Ballpark renaissance

Barça: A People’s Passion
(Burns)

Barcelona soccer club

choosing Guardiola as coach

and Cruijff

and Henry

and Iniesta

and Litmanen

and Messi

“more than a club” motto

most glorious club side on earth

Mourinho as “anti” figure by 2010

and Real Madrid

and Romario

Ronaldinho leaving

and Saviola

Van Gaal as head coach

and Xavi

Barclay, Patrick

Baresi, Franco

Barmby, Nick

Barry, Gareth

Barthez, Fabien

Baseball

See also
Beane, Billy

Baseball Abstracts
(James)

Basel soccer club/stadium

Basilevitch, Michiel

Basketball

Bastia soccer club

Bates, Ken

Batistuta, Gabriel

Batty, David

Bayern Munich

Beckenbauer signing with

haters of in German society

Klinsmann and

Matthäus and

and Ribéry

signing of Ballack

and Van Gaal

Beagrie, Peter

Beane, Billy

and Arsenal economics

as baseball player

e-mail to Kuper

fell in love with soccer on England trip

influences Chelsea and Manchester City

quitting as baseball player to become scout

soccer people interested in

unpaid consultant to Liverpool

using sabermetrics with Oakland A’s

and Wenger

See also
Comolli, Damien; Forde, Mike;
Moneyball

Bebeto (José Roberto Gama de Oliveira)

Beckenbauer, Franz

compared with Ballack

and Matthaüs

poster boy for German soccer

after soccer career of

as superstar leader

and World Cup

and Zidane

Beckham, David

and Cantona

and Capello

as a “Dutch” player

under Eriksson

foreign constituency/promotion of brand

meeting wife Victoria

passing to players

preparing for after soccer career

as professional

and Real Madrid

speaking after games

as vapid celebrity

World Cup of 1998

Beckham, Victoria (Adams)

Bellos, Alex

Bend It Like Beckham
(motion picture)

Benfica soccer club

Benitez, Rafael

Benzema, Karim

Bergkamp, Dennis

and Anelka

compared to Van Nistelrooy

and Van Gaal

Berlusconi, Silvio

Bernabéu stadium

Berti, Nicola

Best, Georgie

and Manchester United’s popularity abroad

on San Jose Earthquakes

as superstar rock star

Bienvenue chez les Ch’tis
(motion picture)

Bierhoff, Oliver

Biermann, Christoph

Bilardo, Carlos

Bild
(tabloid)

and Beckenbauer

and diary of Matthäus

Bin Hammam, Mohammad

Blair, Tony

Blatter, Sepp

Blind, Danny

Boateng, Kevin-Prince

Bojan Krkic Pérez

Bolt, Charles

Bolton Wanderers football club

Bonhof, Rainer

Boroctó (Ricardo Lorenzo Rodriguez)

Borussia Mönchengladbach soccer club

Bosman, John

Bosnich, Mark

Boston Red Sox baseball team

Bowyer, Lee

Bradley, Gordon

Brazil

and Carlos

and Romario

soccer pressure in

Brearley, Mike

Brehme, Andreas

Breitner, Paul

Brilliant Orange: The Neurotic Genius of Dutch Soccer
(Winner)

Brown, Gordon

Buckingham

Buffett, Warren

Buffon, Gianluigi

Bundesliga

Burns, Jimmy

Busby, Matt

Bush, George W.

Butt, Nicky

Cafu (Marcos Evangelista de Moraes)

Cagigao, Francis

Calmund, Rainer

Cambiasso, Enrique

Camden Yards baseball park

Campbell, Alastair

Campbell, Sol

Cannavaro, Fabio

Cantaloup, Nicolas

Cantona, Eric

abandoning traditional English style

immigrant arriving in England

Cantona, Eric
(continued)

Manchester United’s popularity abroad

soccer as art form/himself as artist

violence of/kicking fan

Cantona: The Rebel Who Would Be King
(Auclair)

Capellas, Albert

Capello, Fabio

announcing designated penalty takers

as coach of AC Milan

as coach of English team/World Cup 2010

Careerism

Carlin, John

Carlos, Roberto

Carra
(Carragher)

Carragher, Jamie

autobiography of

and Everton

and Liverpool

stardom not fun

tabloids and

World Cup of 2006

Carrick, Michael

Carroll, Andy

Carvalho, Ricardo

Cashen, Frank

Casillas, Iker

Cech, Petr

Cell phones

C’était pas gagné
(Drogba)

Chadwick, Luke

Champions League

and Ajax soccer club

and Anelka

and Ballack

Barcelona winning in 2006

and Davids

and Fabregas

Iniesta and

and Kaká

and Kluivert

motivation in

and Mourinho

Real Madrid and

and Ribéry

and Verón

Charlton, Bobby

Chef
(boss)

Chelsea soccer club

and Anelka

and Carlos

conference on sports and data

and Essien

Forde working for

and Gattuso