The Dictator's Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy (50 page)

1
“Some leader will tell the secret police”:
All quotations from Pu Zhiqiang come from an interview with the author, Beijing, February 2011.

2
In a special meeting the day after:
Perry Link, “The Secret Politburo Meeting Behind China’s New Democracy
Crackdown,”
NYR
(blog),
New York Review of Books
, February 20, 2011,
www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011/feb/20/secret-politburo-meeting-behind-chinas-crackdown/
.

3
“The Communist Party always talks about law”:
Zhang Jingjing, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

4
“Sometimes the losses produce”:
Yevgenia Chirikova, interview with author, Moscow, April 2010.

5
the case of Chen Guidi and Wu Chuntao:
Philip P. Pan, “In China, Turning the Law into the People’s Protector,”
Washington Post
, December 28, 2004, p. 1. For more on this case and Pu Zhiqiang, I highly recommend Philip P. Pan’s
Out of Mao’s Shadow: The Struggle for the Soul of a New China
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008).

6
“It could ignore the evidence”:
Pan, “In China, Turning the Law.”

7
“When we lived in Moscow”:
All quotations from Yevgenia Chirikova come from interviews with the author in Moscow and Khimki in April 2010, unless otherwise noted.

8
new roads in Russia cost roughly $237 million a kilometer:
Anne Garrels, “Anti-graft Crusade a Dangerous Business in Russia,” National Public Radio, October 13, 2009,
www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113763047
.

9
its roadway infrastructure is ranked 111th:
World Economic Forum,
The Global Enabling Trade Report 2010
(Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2010), p. 233.

10
Levitin is the head of several commercial enterprises:
Aeroflot later dismissed Levitin as the company’s chairman in June 2011. The move came shortly after President Dmitri Medvedev said that deputy prime ministers and ministers should not simultaneously serve on the boards of major state-owned companies. See Henry Meyer, “Medvedev Bid to Oust Officials Is ‘Small Revolution,’ ”
Bloomberg Businessweek
, April 3, 2011.

11
Even in his Khimki hospital bed:
Clifford J. Levy, “Russian Journalists, Fighting Graft, Pay in Blood,”
New York Times
, May 17, 2010, p. 1.

12
Russia was until recently the third-deadliest country:
Committee to Protect Journalists,
Anatomy of Injustice: The Unsolved Killings of Journalists in Russia
(New York: Committee to Protect Journalists, 2009).

13
18 journalists were murdered with no one held accountable:
Committee to Protect Journalists,
Getting Away with Murder: 2011 Impunity Index
(New York: Committee to Protect Journalists, 2011).

14
The governor, Gromov, led the Fortieth Army:
For more on Gromov’s experience in Afghanistan, see Michael Dobbs’s brilliant book
Down with Big Brother: The Fall of the Soviet Empire
(New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1997).

15
The attack she long expected:
Claire Bigg, “Fate of Russia’s Khimki Forest Uncertain After Ecologists Attacked, Detained,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 23, 2011.

16
“These were big guys”:
Yevgenia Chirikova, interview with author, Moscow, January 2011.

17
“He had always been my idol”:
Ibid.

18
According to a poll conducted by the Levada Center:
Yevgenia Chirikova, interview with author, Moscow, January 2011. See also Ashley Cleek and Aleksandra Saenko, “Russian Government OKs Controversial Highway Through Khimki Forest,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 14, 2010.

19
In an unexpected move:
Michael Schwirtz, “Kremlin Relents, for Now, to Foes of Russia Highway,”
New York Times
, August 26, 2010, p. 4.

20
But the powerful interests behind the highway:
Yevgenia’s phone call to the real estate development company, posing as a buyer, is available at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ygFt-xgg34&feature=player_embedded
.

21
“The main idea of Putin”:
Boris Nemtsov, interview with author, Moscow, April 2010.

22
“The tailor has his tools”:
All quotations from Omar Afifi come from an interview with the author in Washington, D.C., in July 2009, unless otherwise noted.

23
“I am not here”:
Omar Afifi, interview with author, Falls Church, Va., July 2011.

1
“Yes, sir. I will follow them”:
Reported by the author, Los Teques, July 2010.

2
“We paraphrased the oath”:
Raúl Baduel, interview with author, Los Teques, July 2010.

3
Baduel sent an elite team:
For a riveting account of the April 11, 2002, coup and Baduel’s dramatic rescue of Chávez from Orchila Island, I recommend Brian A. Nelson’s
The Silence and the Scorpion: The Coup Against Chávez and the Making of Modern Venezuela
(New York: Nation Books, 2009).

4
Baduel felt compelled to resign:
Raúl Baduel, “Why I Parted with Chávez,”
New York Times
, December 1, 2007.

5
Military intelligence officers forcibly detained:
Juan Forero, “Chávez Ally-Turned-Critic Is Detained by Venezuelan Military,”
Washington Post
, October 4, 2008; and Simon Romero, “Chávez Seeks Tighter Grip on Military,”
New York Times
, May 30, 2009.

6
it was the wealthiest country in South America:
Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco Rodríguez, eds.,
Venezuela: Anatomy of a Collapse
(University Park: Penn State University Press, forthcoming).

7
Colombians, envious of their neighbor’s success:
Nelson,
The Silence and the Scorpion
, p. 3. 87
the highest per capita debt in Latin America:
Ibid.

8
Real per capita income dropped 15 percent:
Benn Eifert, Alan Gelb, and Nils Borje Tallroth, “Managing Oil Wealth,”
Finance and Development
40, no. 1 (March 2003).

9
poverty rose 150 percent:
Gustavo Márquez Mosconi and Carola Alvarez, “Poverty and the Labor Market in Venezuela, 1982–1995,” Inter-American Development Bank paper, December 1996, p. 1, idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=815518.

10
By 1998, Venezuela’s per capita GDP:
Stephen Haber, “Latin America’s Quiet Revolution,”
Wall Street Journal
, January 31, 2009.

11
Two-thirds of the country’s banks had collapsed:
Nelson,
The Silence and the Scorpion
, p. 4.

12
More than 50 percent of the population:
Javier Corrales and Michael Penfold,
Dragon in the Tropics
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2011), p. 17. Corrales and Penfold are two of the most authoritative Venezuela watchers. For a primer on Chávez’s takeover of the Venezuelan state, I also highly recommend Javier Corrales’s “Hugo Boss,”
Foreign Policy
, no. 152 (January/February 2006), p. 32.

13
In one survey:
Kenneth Roberts, “Social Polarization and the Populist Resurgence in Venezuela,” in
Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era: Class, Polarization, and Conflict
, ed. Daniel Hellinger and Steve Ellner (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2004), p. 65.

14
you need to understand A, B, C, D, and E:
I am indebted to Luis Vicente León, one of Venezuela’s leading pollsters and the president of Datanálisis, for his thorough overview of the country’s socioeconomic divisions and the voting behavior of each group (Caracas, November 2009).

15
“For the first twenty years”:
Alfredo Croes, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

16
his approach is the inverse of Russia’s Vladimir Putin:
To my knowledge, the first person to make this point was Ivan Krastev; see his “Democracy’s Doubles,”
Journal of Democracy
17, no. 2 (April 2006), p. 52.

17
“This is not Cuba”:
Teodoro Petkoff, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

18
“What happens to a society”:
Virginia Rivero, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

19
“I was very embarrassed”:
Maruja Tarre, interview with author, Washington, D.C., June 2011.

20
his supporters carefully drew up electoral rules:
Corrales and Penfold,
Dragon in the Tropics
, p. 19.

21
“If the majority of people think democracy”:
Luis Vicente León, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

22
“Elections are not a threat”:
Eugenio Martínez, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

23
“Election Day is not a problem”:
Author interview with former National Electoral Council member, Caracas, November 2009.

24
as much as 30 percent:
Martínez, interview.

25
a bump of nearly three million:
I am grateful to Eugenio Martínez for these figures.

26
it took only 42,000 votes:
I am indebted to María Corina Machado for this election data.

27
a so-called mixed electoral system:
The election rules guiding voting in Venezuela are very complex. For a more detailed explanation, I recommend Alejandro Tarre, “Venezuela’s Legislative Elections: Arm Wrestling with Hugo Chávez,”
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs
35, no. 1 (Winter 2011), p. 139.

28
Martínez showed me how:
Martínez, interview.

29
Chávez’s party and the opposition captured roughly:
For an excellent analysis of the September 2010 National Assembly elections, see Tarre, “Venezuela’s Legislative Elections,” pp. 137–44.

30
Chávez has enacted more decrees:
Carlos Vecchio, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

31
Chávez had shocked Venezuelans:
For a full account of Chávez’s exhumation of Bolívar’s body, see Thor Halvorssen, “Behind Exhumation of Simón Bolívar Is Hugo Chávez’s Warped Obsession,”
Washington Post
, July 25, 2010.

32
“I believe we will have very good results”:
Robert Serra, interview with author, Caracas, July 2010.

33
“If the oligarchy is allowed to return”:
Javier Corrales, “For Chávez, Still More Discontent,”
Current History
, February 2009, p. 81.

34
One of the most notorious examples:
For a full account of the Tascón List and the Maisanta, see Human Rights Watch,
A Decade Under Chávez: Political Intolerance and Lost Opportunities for Advancing Human Rights in Venezuela
(New York: Human Rights Watch, 2008), pp. 15–25.

35
Statistical analysis supports the anecdotal evidence:
Chang-Tai Hsieh, Edward Miguel, Daniel Ortega, and Francisco Rodríguez, “The Price of Political Opposition: Evidence from Venezuela’s
Maisanta,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
3, no. 2 (April 2011), pp. 196–214.

36
The government brought charges:
Human Rights Watch,
Decade Under Chávez
, p. 218.

37
“They choose people in every sector”:
María Corina Machado, interview with author, Caracas, July 2010.

38
Machado stepped up her opposition:
Machado would later win her seat in the National Assembly and raise her level of opposition again by becoming a candidate in the opposition’s presidential primaries.

39
“Our communication strategy”:
Magalli Meda, interview with author, Caracas, July 2010.

40
“They record everything we say”:
Tarre, interview.

41
“Who do you want to see?”:
Reported by the author, Los Teques, July 2010. 104
Judge Afiuni had been presiding:
Simon Romero, “Criticism of Chávez Stifled by Arrests,”
New York Times
, April 3, 2010.

42
“The intelligence officers”:
María Afiuni, interview with author, Los Teques, July 2010.

43
“more serious than an assassination”:
Juan Forero, “Venezuelan Judge Is Jailed After Ruling Angers President Hugo Chávez,”
Washington Post
, April 25, 2010, p. A16.

44
“That judge must pay”:
Chávez’s statement condemning Judge María Afiuni on national television on December 11, 2009, can be seen at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXtibicptRA
.

45
“public attitude … undermines the majesty”:
Human Rights Watch,
Decade Under Chávez
, p. 48.

46
Caracas is the most dangerous capital:
I first came across these estimates from a presentation by Marcos Tarre Briceño, the director of the nongovernmental organization Secure Venezuela (Caracas, November 2009). When official figures were leaked in August 2010, the blogger Francisco Toro made a similar comparison at
Caracas Chronicles
, one of the most original and intelligent blogs on Venezuelan politics. His post “And All That Without Suicide Bombings” appeared on August 21, 2010, and is available at
www.caracaschronicles.com/2010/08/21/and-all-that
-without-the-suicide-bombings/
. See also Simon Romero, “Venezuela, More Deadly Than Iraq, Wonders Why,”
New York Times
, August 22, 2010.

47
there were 19,133 murders:
“Shooting Gallery,”
Economist
, August 19, 2010.

48
91
percent of murders go unprosecuted:
The security expert Marcos Tarre Briceño calculated the percentage as 93 percent (interview with author, Caracas, November 2009). Another security expert calculated it as 91 percent. See Pedro Pablo Peñaloza, “Experts Complain That 91 Percent of Murders Go Unpunished in Venezuela,”
El Universal
, September 2, 2010. The government refuses to share the information publicly. Given the small difference in these independent estimates, I have chosen to reproduce the more conservative one, which remains astonishingly high.

49
One afternoon I attended a lunch:
Reported by the author, Caracas, November 2009.

50
it is also the only country in South America:
According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, in Central and South America and the Caribbean, only Venezuela and a handful of Caribbean countries saw their economies contract in 2010. It was accessed on November 16, 2011, at
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx
.

51
Its levels of inflation have exceeded even Africa’s:
Kejal Vyas, “Venezuela Inflation Highest Among Top Emerging Economies,”
Wall Street Journal
, December 29, 2010; and Daniel Cancel and Charlie Devereux, “Venezuela’s Inflation Rate Rises at Fastest Pace in 7 Months,”
Bloomberg Businessweek
, November 4, 2011.

52
a negative balance sheet for foreign investment:
Victor Salmerón, “Foreign Direct Investment Plunges $1.4 Billion in Venezuela,”
El Universal
, May 5, 2011.

53
“The problem is the price [controls]”:
Author interview with local butcher, Caracas, July 2010.

54
he delivered nearly two thousand
cadenas: Committee to Protect Journalists, “Attacks on the Press 2010,” February 2011,
www.cpj.org/attacks/
.

55
“The
cadenas
are a huge form of control”:
Andrés Cañizález, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

56
The centerpiece of Chávez’s media universe:
Juan Forero, “ ‘Aló Presidente,’ Are You Still Talking?”
Washington Post
, May 30, 2009.

57
If Chávez’s antics are unrehearsed:
I am indebted to Andrés Cañizález, a professor at the Andrés Bello Catholic University and one of the foremost experts on Chávez’s media strategies, for this background.

58
Chávez shuttered 34 radio stations:
Francisco Toro, “Welcome to Censorship in the 21st Century,”
New Republic
, August 5, 2010.

59
he appointed a former head of the intelligence police:
Cañizález, interview.

60
the National Assembly passed laws forbidding:
Richard Allen Greene, “Critics of Venezuela’s New Media Laws Fear ‘Dangerous’ Crackdown,” CNN, December 22, 2010.

61
“This is not a totalitarian society”:
Teodoro Petkoff, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

62
“The rejection of Chávez”:
Alfredo Croes, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

63
“Chávez is weaker”:
Luis Vicente León, interview with author, Caracas, November 2009.

64
Chávez effectively hollowed out:
Rachel Jones, “Hugo Chávez Gives Himself a Big Christmas Gift,”
Time
, December 29, 2010.

65
he unilaterally revised the tax on oil revenues:
William J. Dobson, “Chávez’s Easter Gift—to Himself,”
PostPartisan
(blog),
Washington Post
, April 26, 2011,
www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/chavezs-easter-gift—to-himself/2011/04/26/AFVs4gqE_blog.html
.

66
What matters is the way in which a democracy’s leaders:
Samuel P. Huntington,
The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century
(Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 259.