The Politics of Climate Change (36 page)
Read The Politics of Climate Change Online
Authors: Anthony Giddens
24.
  James Hansen et al., âTarget Atmospheric CO
2
, Where Should Humanity Aim?', NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 2007, available online.
25.
 Â
James Hansen,
Storms of My Grandchildren
(London: Bloomsbury, 2009). The phrase actually appears in the subtitle of the book.
26.
  Ibid., p. 236.
27.
  Ibid., p. 269.
28.
  James Lovelock,
The Vanishing Face of Gaia
(London: Penguin, 2010), p. 3.
29.
  Ibid., p. 4.
30.
  Ibid., p. 44.
Chapter 2Â Â Running Out, Running Down?
1.
  Richard Heinberg,
The Party's Over
(Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 2003), p. 31.
2.
  Paul Middleton,
A Brief Guide to the End of Oil
(London: Robinson, 2007), ch. 3.
3.
  David Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
(London: Murray, 2007), p. 40.
4.
  David Howell and Carole Nakhle,
Out of the Energy Labyrinth
(London: Tauris, 2007), pp. 88â92.
5.
  International Energy Agency,
World Energy Outlook 2007
(Paris: OECD/IEA, 2007).
6.
  Stephen Leeb,
The Coming Economic Collapse
(New York: Warner, 2007), p. 1.
7.
  See, for example, Kenneth Deffeyes,
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001); Paul Roberts,
The End of Oil
(London: Bloomsbury, 2004); Michael T. Klare,
Resource Wars
(New York: Holt, 2002); Matthew R. Simmons,
Twilight in the Desert
(New York: Wiley, 2005); Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
. Strahan's title unconsciously echoes that of Fred Pearce on global warming:
The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change
(London: Eden Project Books, 2006).
8.
  Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
, p. 60.
9.
  William Freudenberg and Robert Gramling,
Blowout in the Gulf
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2011), p. 7.
10.
  David Victor et al.,
Natural Gas and Geopolitics
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
11.
  David Strahan, âLump Sums',
Guardian
, 5 March 2008.
12.
  Quoted in Dieter Helm,
The New Energy Paradigm
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. 19.
13.
  Ibid., p. 21.
14.
  Speech of then-President Vladimir Putin, quoted in Edward Lucas,
The New Cold War
(London: Bloomsbury, 2008), p. 212.
15.
  Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
, p. 180.
16.
  Reported in Times Online, 11 January 2008.
17.
  Leeb,
The Coming Economic Collapse
, p. 77.
Chapter 3Â Â The Greens and After
1.
  Nicholas Stern,
The Economics of Climate Change
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. xviii. The quote actually appears in the Stern Review in several slightly different formulations.
2.
  William Morris,
News from Nowhere
(London: Longmans, Green & Co., 1918), p. 280.
3.
  Ralph Waldo Emerson,
Nature â Conduct of Life
(New York: Read, 2006). Originally published in 1836.
4.
  Bradford Torrey,
The Writings of Henry David Thoreau: Journal
, vol. 14 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1906), p. 205.
5.
  Quoted in Robert Goodin,
Green Political Theory
(Cambridge: Polity, 1992), p. 30.
6.
  Ibid., pp. 50ff.
7.
  William Rees, âEcological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity',
Environment and Urbanisation
4 (1992).
8.
  See, for example, Ted Mosquin and Stan Rowe, âA Manifesto for Earth',
Biodiversity
5 (2004).
9.
  Peter Bernstein,
Against the Gods
(New York: Wiley, 1996).
10.
  Cass R. Sunstein,
Laws of Fear
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 4.
11.
  Ibid., p. 18.
12.
  Donella H. Meadows et al.,
Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind
(New York: New American Library, 1972). See also Donella H. Meadows et al.,
Limits to Growth â The 30-Year Update
(London: Macmillan, 2004), and many other publications by the same group of authors.
13.
  World Commission on Environment and Development,
Our Common Future
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).
14.
  Ibid., p. 326.
15.
  Richard North, âSustainable Development: A Concept with a Future?' Liberales Institute Occasional Paper (2005), p. 6.
16.
  William Baue, âRio+10 Series',
Sustainability Investment News
, 23 August 2002. Simon Dresner puts the matter forcefully: â[Sustainable development] is a concept which combines post-modern pessimism about the domination of nature with almost Enlightenment optimism about the possibility to reform human institutions':
The Principles of Sustainability
(London: Earthscan, 2002), p. 164.
17.
  W. M. Lafferty and J. Meadowcroft,
Implementing Sustainable Development
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 19.
18.
  Wilfred Beckerman, âThe Chimera of “Sustainable Development”',
Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development
1 (2008).
19.
  Daniel Esty et al.,
The Environmental Sustainability Index
(Davos: Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environmental Task Force, 2001).
20.
  The website of the Global Commons Institute, led by Aubrey Meyer, provides detailed background information.
21.
 Â
See Avner Offer,
The Challenge of Affluence
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006).
22.
  Both quotes from John Talberth and Clifford Cobb,
The Genuine Progress Indicator 2006
(Oakland: Redefining Progress, 2006), p. 1.
23.
  Offer,
The Challenge of Affluence
, p. 19.
24.
  Sustainable Society Index, 2008, available online from the Sustainable Society Foundation.
25.
  UK Government Office for Science,
Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming
(London: HMSO, 2011).
26.
 Â
The Future of Food and Farming
, pp. 21â2.
27.
  John Dryzek,
The Politics of the Earth
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 145.
28.
  See Arthur Mol and David Sonnenfeld,
Ecological Modernisation Around the World
(London: Cass, 2000).
Chapter 4Â Â The Track Record So Far
1.
  See Marcel Wissenburg,
Green Liberalism
(London: UCL Press, 1998), p. 7.
2.
  David Shearman and Joseph Wayne Smith,
The Climate Change Challenge and the Failure of Democracy
(London: Praeger, 2007), p. 133.
3.
  Robyn Eckersley,
The Green State
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004), ch. 4 and passim.
4.
  Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University: 2008 Environmental Performance Index.
5.
  Semida Silveira, âSustainability in the Energy Sector â the Swedish Experience', available from the Swedish Energy Agency, 2006.
6.
  Paul Harris,
Europe and Global Climate Change
(London: Elgar, 2007).
7.
  See Axel Michaelowa, âGerman Climate Policy Between Global Leadership and Muddling Through', in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey (eds),
Turning Down the Heat
(London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
8.
  Federal Ministry for the Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety: Investments for a Climate-Friendly Germany
(Synthesis Report, Potsdam, July 2008), available online.
9.
  I am grateful to Olaf Corry for his help in providing the statistics that follow.
10.
  Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy,
Green Energy
(Copenhagen, 2010).
11.
  European Environment Agency,
Annual EU Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990â2008
(Brussels, 2010), p. 13.
12.
  For a comprehensive analysis, see Irene Lorenzoni, Tim O'Riordan and Nick Pidgeon, âHot Air and Cold Feet', in Compston and Bailey (eds),
Turning Down the Heat
.
13.
 Â
Committee on Climate Change,
Meeting Carbon Budgets â The Need for a Step Change
(London: HMSO, 2009).
14.
 Â
The Climate Change Performance Index, 2010
(Bonn: Greenwatch, 2010).
15.
  President Obama: State of the Union Address, 25 January 2011 (Washington: The White House), p. 4.
16.
  Pew Research Center for The People and The Press,
Little Change in Opinions about Global Warming
, 27 October 2010.
17.
  Center for Climate Strategies,
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the US Economy
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University, 2010).
Chapter 5Â Â A Return to Planning?
1.
  John Dryzek, âEcology and Discursive Democracy', in Martin O'Connor (ed.),
Is Capitalism Sustainable?
(New York: Guilford Press, 1994), pp. 176â7.
2.
  Evan Durbin,
Problems of Economic Planning
(London: Routledge, 1949), p. 41.
3.
  Friedrich von Hayek,
The Constitution of Liberty
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960).
4.
  See, for example, David Orrell
, The Future of Everything
(New York: Thunders Mouth Press, 2006). For a critique of environmental prediction, see Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey Jarvis,
Useless Arithmetic
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).
5.
  Jaco Quist and Philip Vergragt, âBackcasting for Industrial Transformations', in Klaus Jacob et al. (eds),
Governance for Industrial Transformation
(Berlin: Environmental Policy Research Centre, 2003), pp. 423â5. Many other examples are discussed in this text.
6.
  Cynthia Mitchell and Stuart White, âForecasting and Backcasting for Sustainable Urban Water Futures',
Water
30 (2003).
7.
  R. Bord et al., âPublic Perceptions of Global Warming',
Climate Research
11 (1998).
8.
  Ipsos MORI, âPublic Attitudes to Climate Change 2008', available on the Ipsos MORI website.
9.
  Irene Lorenzoni and Nick Pidgeon,
Defining the Dangers of Climate Change and Individual Behaviour
(Norwich: Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia, 2006).
10.
  Quoted in Martin Patchen,
Public Attitudes and Behavior About Climate Change
(Purdue University Outreach Publication, 2006), p. 16. See also Sheldon Ungar, âKnowledge, Ignorance and the Popular Culture',
Public Understanding of Science
9 (2000); and John Sterman, âRisk Communication on Climate',
Science
322 (2008).
11.
  HSBC, âInternational Survey of Public Attitudes Towards Climate Change', reported on the HSBC website.
12.
  Patchen,
Public Attitudes
, p. 14.
13.
 Â
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,
A Framework for Pro-Environmental Behaviours
(London: HMSO, 2008).
14.
  Ron Pernick and Clint Wilder,
The Clean Tech Revolution
(New York: Collins, 2007), pp. 263â73.
15.
  See Ithiel de Sola Pool,
The Social Uses of the Telephone
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1977).
16.
  Richard Florida,
The Rise of the Creative Class
(New York: Basic Books, 2004), pp. 34â5.
17.
  Malcolm Gladwell,
The Tipping Point
(London: Little, Brown, 2000).
18.
  For a discussion of some of these practices, see Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (yes, the self-same destroyer of the precautionary principle),
Nudge
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008).
19.
  For this section I am heavily indebted to the work of Sarah Pralle,
Branching Out, Digging In
(Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2006), which was drawn to my attention by Hugh Compston. See also Sarah Pralle, âAgenda-setting and Climate Change', in Hugh Compston (ed.),
The Politics of Climate Policy
, special book issue of
Environmental Politics
, 2009. As I do, Pralle draws heavily upon John Kingdon's book,
Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies
(New York: Longman, 1995).
  James Hansen et al., âTarget Atmospheric CO
2
, Where Should Humanity Aim?', NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 2007, available online.
25.
 Â
James Hansen,
Storms of My Grandchildren
(London: Bloomsbury, 2009). The phrase actually appears in the subtitle of the book.
26.
  Ibid., p. 236.
27.
  Ibid., p. 269.
28.
  James Lovelock,
The Vanishing Face of Gaia
(London: Penguin, 2010), p. 3.
29.
  Ibid., p. 4.
30.
  Ibid., p. 44.
Chapter 2Â Â Running Out, Running Down?
1.
  Richard Heinberg,
The Party's Over
(Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 2003), p. 31.
2.
  Paul Middleton,
A Brief Guide to the End of Oil
(London: Robinson, 2007), ch. 3.
3.
  David Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
(London: Murray, 2007), p. 40.
4.
  David Howell and Carole Nakhle,
Out of the Energy Labyrinth
(London: Tauris, 2007), pp. 88â92.
5.
  International Energy Agency,
World Energy Outlook 2007
(Paris: OECD/IEA, 2007).
6.
  Stephen Leeb,
The Coming Economic Collapse
(New York: Warner, 2007), p. 1.
7.
  See, for example, Kenneth Deffeyes,
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001); Paul Roberts,
The End of Oil
(London: Bloomsbury, 2004); Michael T. Klare,
Resource Wars
(New York: Holt, 2002); Matthew R. Simmons,
Twilight in the Desert
(New York: Wiley, 2005); Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
. Strahan's title unconsciously echoes that of Fred Pearce on global warming:
The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change
(London: Eden Project Books, 2006).
8.
  Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
, p. 60.
9.
  William Freudenberg and Robert Gramling,
Blowout in the Gulf
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2011), p. 7.
10.
  David Victor et al.,
Natural Gas and Geopolitics
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
11.
  David Strahan, âLump Sums',
Guardian
, 5 March 2008.
12.
  Quoted in Dieter Helm,
The New Energy Paradigm
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. 19.
13.
  Ibid., p. 21.
14.
  Speech of then-President Vladimir Putin, quoted in Edward Lucas,
The New Cold War
(London: Bloomsbury, 2008), p. 212.
15.
  Strahan,
The Last Oil Shock
, p. 180.
16.
  Reported in Times Online, 11 January 2008.
17.
  Leeb,
The Coming Economic Collapse
, p. 77.
Chapter 3Â Â The Greens and After
1.
  Nicholas Stern,
The Economics of Climate Change
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. xviii. The quote actually appears in the Stern Review in several slightly different formulations.
2.
  William Morris,
News from Nowhere
(London: Longmans, Green & Co., 1918), p. 280.
3.
  Ralph Waldo Emerson,
Nature â Conduct of Life
(New York: Read, 2006). Originally published in 1836.
4.
  Bradford Torrey,
The Writings of Henry David Thoreau: Journal
, vol. 14 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1906), p. 205.
5.
  Quoted in Robert Goodin,
Green Political Theory
(Cambridge: Polity, 1992), p. 30.
6.
  Ibid., pp. 50ff.
7.
  William Rees, âEcological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity',
Environment and Urbanisation
4 (1992).
8.
  See, for example, Ted Mosquin and Stan Rowe, âA Manifesto for Earth',
Biodiversity
5 (2004).
9.
  Peter Bernstein,
Against the Gods
(New York: Wiley, 1996).
10.
  Cass R. Sunstein,
Laws of Fear
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 4.
11.
  Ibid., p. 18.
12.
  Donella H. Meadows et al.,
Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind
(New York: New American Library, 1972). See also Donella H. Meadows et al.,
Limits to Growth â The 30-Year Update
(London: Macmillan, 2004), and many other publications by the same group of authors.
13.
  World Commission on Environment and Development,
Our Common Future
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).
14.
  Ibid., p. 326.
15.
  Richard North, âSustainable Development: A Concept with a Future?' Liberales Institute Occasional Paper (2005), p. 6.
16.
  William Baue, âRio+10 Series',
Sustainability Investment News
, 23 August 2002. Simon Dresner puts the matter forcefully: â[Sustainable development] is a concept which combines post-modern pessimism about the domination of nature with almost Enlightenment optimism about the possibility to reform human institutions':
The Principles of Sustainability
(London: Earthscan, 2002), p. 164.
17.
  W. M. Lafferty and J. Meadowcroft,
Implementing Sustainable Development
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 19.
18.
  Wilfred Beckerman, âThe Chimera of “Sustainable Development”',
Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development
1 (2008).
19.
  Daniel Esty et al.,
The Environmental Sustainability Index
(Davos: Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environmental Task Force, 2001).
20.
  The website of the Global Commons Institute, led by Aubrey Meyer, provides detailed background information.
21.
 Â
See Avner Offer,
The Challenge of Affluence
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006).
22.
  Both quotes from John Talberth and Clifford Cobb,
The Genuine Progress Indicator 2006
(Oakland: Redefining Progress, 2006), p. 1.
23.
  Offer,
The Challenge of Affluence
, p. 19.
24.
  Sustainable Society Index, 2008, available online from the Sustainable Society Foundation.
25.
  UK Government Office for Science,
Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming
(London: HMSO, 2011).
26.
 Â
The Future of Food and Farming
, pp. 21â2.
27.
  John Dryzek,
The Politics of the Earth
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 145.
28.
  See Arthur Mol and David Sonnenfeld,
Ecological Modernisation Around the World
(London: Cass, 2000).
Chapter 4Â Â The Track Record So Far
1.
  See Marcel Wissenburg,
Green Liberalism
(London: UCL Press, 1998), p. 7.
2.
  David Shearman and Joseph Wayne Smith,
The Climate Change Challenge and the Failure of Democracy
(London: Praeger, 2007), p. 133.
3.
  Robyn Eckersley,
The Green State
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004), ch. 4 and passim.
4.
  Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University: 2008 Environmental Performance Index.
5.
  Semida Silveira, âSustainability in the Energy Sector â the Swedish Experience', available from the Swedish Energy Agency, 2006.
6.
  Paul Harris,
Europe and Global Climate Change
(London: Elgar, 2007).
7.
  See Axel Michaelowa, âGerman Climate Policy Between Global Leadership and Muddling Through', in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey (eds),
Turning Down the Heat
(London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
8.
  Federal Ministry for the Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety: Investments for a Climate-Friendly Germany
(Synthesis Report, Potsdam, July 2008), available online.
9.
  I am grateful to Olaf Corry for his help in providing the statistics that follow.
10.
  Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy,
Green Energy
(Copenhagen, 2010).
11.
  European Environment Agency,
Annual EU Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990â2008
(Brussels, 2010), p. 13.
12.
  For a comprehensive analysis, see Irene Lorenzoni, Tim O'Riordan and Nick Pidgeon, âHot Air and Cold Feet', in Compston and Bailey (eds),
Turning Down the Heat
.
13.
 Â
Committee on Climate Change,
Meeting Carbon Budgets â The Need for a Step Change
(London: HMSO, 2009).
14.
 Â
The Climate Change Performance Index, 2010
(Bonn: Greenwatch, 2010).
15.
  President Obama: State of the Union Address, 25 January 2011 (Washington: The White House), p. 4.
16.
  Pew Research Center for The People and The Press,
Little Change in Opinions about Global Warming
, 27 October 2010.
17.
  Center for Climate Strategies,
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the US Economy
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University, 2010).
Chapter 5Â Â A Return to Planning?
1.
  John Dryzek, âEcology and Discursive Democracy', in Martin O'Connor (ed.),
Is Capitalism Sustainable?
(New York: Guilford Press, 1994), pp. 176â7.
2.
  Evan Durbin,
Problems of Economic Planning
(London: Routledge, 1949), p. 41.
3.
  Friedrich von Hayek,
The Constitution of Liberty
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960).
4.
  See, for example, David Orrell
, The Future of Everything
(New York: Thunders Mouth Press, 2006). For a critique of environmental prediction, see Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey Jarvis,
Useless Arithmetic
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).
5.
  Jaco Quist and Philip Vergragt, âBackcasting for Industrial Transformations', in Klaus Jacob et al. (eds),
Governance for Industrial Transformation
(Berlin: Environmental Policy Research Centre, 2003), pp. 423â5. Many other examples are discussed in this text.
6.
  Cynthia Mitchell and Stuart White, âForecasting and Backcasting for Sustainable Urban Water Futures',
Water
30 (2003).
7.
  R. Bord et al., âPublic Perceptions of Global Warming',
Climate Research
11 (1998).
8.
  Ipsos MORI, âPublic Attitudes to Climate Change 2008', available on the Ipsos MORI website.
9.
  Irene Lorenzoni and Nick Pidgeon,
Defining the Dangers of Climate Change and Individual Behaviour
(Norwich: Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia, 2006).
10.
  Quoted in Martin Patchen,
Public Attitudes and Behavior About Climate Change
(Purdue University Outreach Publication, 2006), p. 16. See also Sheldon Ungar, âKnowledge, Ignorance and the Popular Culture',
Public Understanding of Science
9 (2000); and John Sterman, âRisk Communication on Climate',
Science
322 (2008).
11.
  HSBC, âInternational Survey of Public Attitudes Towards Climate Change', reported on the HSBC website.
12.
  Patchen,
Public Attitudes
, p. 14.
13.
 Â
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,
A Framework for Pro-Environmental Behaviours
(London: HMSO, 2008).
14.
  Ron Pernick and Clint Wilder,
The Clean Tech Revolution
(New York: Collins, 2007), pp. 263â73.
15.
  See Ithiel de Sola Pool,
The Social Uses of the Telephone
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1977).
16.
  Richard Florida,
The Rise of the Creative Class
(New York: Basic Books, 2004), pp. 34â5.
17.
  Malcolm Gladwell,
The Tipping Point
(London: Little, Brown, 2000).
18.
  For a discussion of some of these practices, see Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (yes, the self-same destroyer of the precautionary principle),
Nudge
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008).
19.
  For this section I am heavily indebted to the work of Sarah Pralle,
Branching Out, Digging In
(Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2006), which was drawn to my attention by Hugh Compston. See also Sarah Pralle, âAgenda-setting and Climate Change', in Hugh Compston (ed.),
The Politics of Climate Policy
, special book issue of
Environmental Politics
, 2009. As I do, Pralle draws heavily upon John Kingdon's book,
Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies
(New York: Longman, 1995).
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