The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
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Authors: Paul Kennedy
Tags: #General, #History, #World, #Political Science
First Vintage Books Edition, January 1989
Copyright © 1987 by Paul Kennedy
All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Published in the United States by Random House, Inc., New York. Originally published, in hardcover, by Random House, Inc., in 1987.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kennedy, Paul M., 1945-
The rise and fall of the great powers.
1. History, Modern. 2. Economic history.
3. Military history, Modern. 4. Armaments—Economic aspects. 5. Balance of power. I. Title.
D210.K46 1989 909.82 88-40123
eISBN: 978-0-307-77356-2
Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following for permission to reprint previously published material:
Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company: An illustration from
American Defense Annual 1987–1988
, edited by Joseph Kruzel, Copyright © 1987, D. C. Heath and Company (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company). Reprinted by permission of the publisher.
Maps by John Paul Tremblay
v3.1
To Cath
W
hatever the weaknesses of this book, they would have been far greater without the kind help of friends. J. R. Jones and Gordon Lee went through the entire manuscript, asking questions all the way. My colleague Jonathan Spence endeavored (I fear with only partial success) to curb the cultural assumptions which emerged in the first two chapters. John Elliott was encouraging about
Chapter 2
, despite its being very evidently “not my period.” Paddy O’Brien and John Bosher sought to make my comments on eighteenth-century British and French finance a little less crude. Nick Rizopoulos and Michael Mandelbaum not only scrutinized the later chapters, but also invited me to present my ideas at a series of meetings at the Lehrman Institute in New York. Many, many scholars have heard me give papers on subthemes in this book, and have provided references, much-needed criticism, and encouragement.
The libraries and staffs at the universities of East Anglia and Yale were of great assistance. My graduate student Kevin Smith helped me in the search for historical statistics. My son Jim Kennedy prepared the maps. Sheila Klein and Sue McClain came to the rescue with typing and word processing, as did Maarten Pereboom with the bibliography. I am extremely grateful for the sustained support and encouragement which my literary agent, Bruce Hunter, has provided over the years. Jason Epstein has been a firm and patient editor, repeatedly getting me to think of the general reader—and also recognizing earlier than the author did how demanding it would be to deal with themes of this magnitude.
My family has provided support and, more important still, light relief. The book is dedicated to my wife, to whom I owe so much.
Paul Kennedy
Hamden, Connecticut, 1986
2. The Political Divisions of Europe in the Sixteenth Century
8. The Chief Possessions, Naval Bases, and Submarine Cables of the British Empire, c. 1900
TABLES
13. Urban Population of the Powers and as Percentage of the Total Population, 1890–1938
17. Total Industrial Potential of the Powers in Relative Perspective, 1880–1938
18. Relative Shares of World Manufacturing Output, 1880–1938
21. National Income, Population, and per Capita Income of the Powers in 1914
22. Industrial/Technological Comparisons of the 1914 Alliances
24. Industrial/Technological Comparisons with the United States but Without Russia
31. National Income of the Powers in 1937 and Percentage Spent on Defense
42. Average Annual Rate of Growth of Output per Capita, 1948–1962
46. Kilos of Coal Equivalent and Steel Used to Produce $1,000 of GDP in 1979–1980