The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (46 page)

M
OLLY
2004:
Such as?

R
AY
:
Nanobots will be able to travel through the bloodstream, then go in and around our cells and perform various services, such as removing toxins, sweeping out debris, correcting DNA errors, repairing and restoring cell
membranes, reversing atherosclerosis, modifying the levels of hormones, neurotransmitters, and other metabolic chemicals, and a myriad of other tasks. For each aging process, we can describe a means for nanobots to reverse the process, down to the level of individual cells, cell components, and molecules
.

M
OLLY
2004:
So I’ll stay young indefinitely?

R
AY
:
That’s the idea
.

M
OLLY
2004:
When did you say I could get these?

R
AY
:
I thought you were worried about nanobot firewalls
.

M
OLLY
2004:
Yeah, well, I’ve got time to worry about that. So what was that time frame again?

R
AY
:
About twenty to twenty-five years
.

M
OLLY
2004:
I’m twenty-five now, so I’ll age to about forty-five and then stay there?

R
AY
:
No, that’s not exactly the idea. You can slow down aging to a crawl right now by adopting the knowledge we already have. Within ten to twenty years, the biotechnology revolution will provide far more powerful means to stop and in many cases reverse each disease and aging process. And it’s not like nothing is going to happen in the meantime. Each year, we’ll have more powerful techniques, and the process will accelerate. Then nanotechnology will finish the job
.

M
OLLY
2004:
Yes, of course, it’s hard for you to get out a sentence without using the word “accelerate.” So what biological age am I going to get to?

R
AY
:
I think you’ll settle somewhere in your thirties and stay there for a while
.

M
OLLY
2004:
Thirties sounds pretty good. I think a slightly more mature age than twenty-five is a good idea anyway. But what do you mean “for a while”?

R
AY
:
Stopping and reversing aging is only the beginning. Using nanobots for health and longevity is just the early adoption phase of introducing nanotechnology and intelligent computation into our bodies and brains. The more profound implication is that we’ll augment our thinking processes with nanobots that communicate with one another and with our biological neurons. Once nonbiological intelligence gets a foothold, so to speak, in our brains, it will be subject to the law of accelerating returns and expand exponentially. Our biological thinking, on the other hand, is basically stuck
.
MOLLY 2004:
There you go again with things accelerating, but when this really gets going, thinking with biological neurons will be pretty trivial in comparison
.
RAY:
That’s a fair statement
.

M
OLLY
2004:
So, Miss Molly of the future, when did I drop my biological body and brain?

M
OLLY
2104:
Well, you don’t really want me to spell out your future, do you? And anyway it’s actually not a straightforward question
.

M
OLLY
2004:
How’s that?

M
OLLY
2104:
In the 2040s we developed the means to instantly create new portions of ourselves, either biological or nonbiological. It became apparent that our true nature was a pattern of information, but we still needed to manifest ourselves in some physical form. However, we could quickly change that physical form
.

M
OLLY
2004:
By?

M
OLLY
2104:
By applying new high-speed MNT manufacturing. So we could readily and rapidly redesign our physical instantiation. So I could have a biological body at one time and not at another, then have it again, then change it, and so on
.

M
OLLY
2004:
I think I’m following this
.

M
OLLY
2104:
The point is that I could have my biological brain and/or body or not have it. It’s not a matter of dropping anything, because we can always get back something we drop
.

M
OLLY
2004:
So you’re still doing this?

M
OLLY
2104:
Some people still do this, but now in 2104 it’s a bit anachronistic. I mean, the simulations of biology are totally indistinguishable from actual biology, so why bother with physical instantiations?

M
OLLY
2004:
Yeah, it’s messy isn’t it?

M
OLLY
2104:
I’ll say
.

M
OLLY
2004:
I do have to say that it seems strange to be able to change your physical embodiment. I mean, where’s your—my—continuity?

M
OLLY
2104:
It’s the same as your continuity in 2004. You’re changing your particles all the time also. It’s just your pattern of information that has continuity
.

M
OLLY
2004:
But in 2104 you’re able to change your pattern of information quickly also. I can’t do that yet
.

M
OLLY
2104:
It’s really not that different. You change your pattern—your memory, skills, experiences, even personality over time—but there is a continuity, a core that changes only gradually
.

M
OLLY
2004:
But I thought you could change your appearance and personality dramatically in an instant?

M
OLLY
2104:
Yes, but that’s just a surface manifestation. My true core changes only gradually, just like when I was you in 2004
.

M
OLLY
2004:
Well, there are lots of times when I’d be delighted to instantly change my surface appearance
.

Robotics: Strong AI

Consider another argument put forth by Turing. So far we have constructed only fairly simple and predictable artifacts. When we increase the complexity of our machines, there may, perhaps, be surprises in store for us. He draws a parallel with a fission pile. Below a certain “critical” size, nothing much happens: but above the critical size, the sparks begin to fly. So too, perhaps, with brains and machines. Most brains and all machines are, at present “sub-critical”—they react to incoming stimuli in a stodgy and uninteresting way, have no ideas of their own, can produce only stock responses—but a few brains at present, and possibly some machines in the future, are super-critical, and scintillate on their own account. Turing is suggesting that it is only a matter of complexity, and that above a certain level of complexity a qualitative difference appears, so that “super-critical” machines will be quite unlike the simple ones hitherto envisaged.

                   —J. R. L
UCAS
, O
XFORD
P
HILOSOPHER, IN HIS 1961 ESSAY
“M
INDS
, M
ACHINES, AND
G
ÖDEL
”
¹⁵⁷

Given that superintelligence will one day be technologically feasible, will people choose to develop it? This question can pretty confidently be answered in the affirmative. Associated with every step along the road to superintelligence are enormous economic payoffs. The computer industry invests huge sums in the next generation of hardware and software, and it will continue doing so as long as there is a competitive pressure and profits to be made. People want better computers and smarter software, and they want the benefits these machines can help produce. Better medical drugs; relief for humans from the need to perform boring or dangerous jobs; entertainment—there is no end to the list of consumer-benefits. There is also a strong military motive to develop artificial intelligence. And nowhere on the path is there any natural stopping point where technophobics could plausibly argue “hither but not further.”

                   —N
ICK
B
OSTROM
, “H
OW
L
ONG
B
EFORE
S
UPERINTELLIGENCE
?” 1997

It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could
also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.

                   —N
ICK
B
OSTROM
, “E
THICAL
I
SSUES IN
A
DVANCED
A
RTIFICIAL
I
NTELLIGENCE
,” 2003

Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be our children.

                   —M
ARVIN
M
INSKY
, 1995

Of the three primary revolutions underlying the Singularity (G, N, and R), the most profound is R, which refers to the creation of nonbiological intelligence that exceeds that of unenhanced humans. A more intelligent process will inherently outcompete one that is less intelligent, making intelligence the most powerful force in the universe.

While the R in GNR stands for robotics, the real issue involved here is strong AI (artificial intelligence that exceeds human intelligence). The standard reason for emphasizing robotics in this formulation is that intelligence needs an embodiment, a physical presence, to affect the world. I disagree with the emphasis on physical presence, however, for I believe that the central concern is intelligence. Intelligence will inherently find a way to influence the world, including creating its own means for embodiment and physical manipulation. Furthermore, we can include physical skills as a fundamental part of intelligence; a large portion of the human brain (the cerebellum, comprising more than half our neurons), for example, is devoted to coordinating our skills and muscles.

Artificial intelligence at human levels will necessarily greatly exceed human intelligence for several reasons. As I pointed out earlier, machines can readily share their knowledge. As unenhanced humans we do not have the means of sharing the vast patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter-concentration levels that comprise our learning, knowledge, and skills, other than through slow, language-based communication. Of course, even this method of communication has been very beneficial, as it has distinguished us from other animals and has been an enabling factor in the creation of technology.

Human skills are able to develop only in ways that have been evolutionarily encouraged. Those skills, which are primarily based on massively parallel pattern recognition, provide proficiency for certain tasks, such as distinguishing faces, identifying objects, and recognizing language sounds. But they’re not
suited for many others, such as determining patterns in financial data. Once we fully master pattern-recognition paradigms, machine methods can apply these techniques to any type of pattern.
¹⁵⁸

Machines can pool their resources in ways that humans cannot. Although teams of humans can accomplish both physical and mental feats that individual humans cannot achieve, machines can more easily and readily aggregate their computational, memory, and communications resources. As discussed earlier, the Internet is evolving into a worldwide grid of computing resources that can instantly be brought together to form massive supercomputers.

Machines have exacting memories. Contemporary computers can master billions of facts accurately, a capability that is doubling every year.
¹⁵⁹
The underlying speed and price-performance of computing itself is doubling every year, and the rate of doubling is itself accelerating.