The Swarm (58 page)

“We don't think in spheres,” said Bingwen. “We're planet-based. Yes, the Earth is a sphere, but we still think north, south, east, west. Left, right, up, down. We need opposites like that. We need to have the ability to say, go left, go right, go north, go south in order to use the human brain the way it's been programmed to work. It's hard to do that in a sphere because there is no plane of reference. Plus a sphere is simply harder to construct. A cube, with its straight lines, is much easier to build.”

Mazer's wrist pad began to vibrate. He read the message, then addressed the group. “That's all for today. Dismissed. Bingwen, could you stay after please?”

When Mazer and Bingwen were alone, Mazer said, “We're wanted in Rear Admiral Zembassi's office.”

Bingwen understood at once. Months ago Li had appointed Bingwen as commander of the cadets. Now that the ship was in the Belt, they were close enough to approach an asteroid.

“You think we're getting orders to attack an asteroid?” said Bingwen.

“That's my guess,” said Mazer. “Are you ready for this?”

“You can answer that better than I can.”

“You've seen more combat than most men on this ship,” said Mazer. “You've been ready for a while. It's the other cadets I worry about.”

They reported to Zembassi's office. Colonel Li and a few other senior officers had already gathered. Zembassi waved his hand in the holofield and brought up a starchart of the Belt with thousands of dots of light. He made another hand movement, and hundreds of the dots turned from white to red.

“The red dots represent the asteroids we believe the Formics have seized,” said Zembassi. “We initially feared that these rocks might be missiles intended for Earth, but we have yet to identify a single asteroid on a trajectory to Earth. In fact, they seem to be going in every direction
but
toward Earth.”

The red dots on the screen began to move in random directions.

“The trajectories make no sense,” said Zembassi. “There's no order. Some asteroids have coalesced into groups of four or five. Others have moved out of the ecliptic, only to change course and come back down again. Others are moving away from Earth. It's random.”

“Why would the Formics send asteroids away from Earth?” said Li. “That's what I don't understand.”

“They're feints,” said Bingwen.

The men all turned to him as if they had forgotten a twelve-year-old boy was present.

“There
is
a pattern to these movements,” said Bingwen. “It's the same pattern the Formics have used from the beginning. A pattern of deception. First with Copernicus. Then with the other Parallax satellites. And now these asteroids. Everything they've done has been subterfuge. They seized these asteroids using miniships that we didn't even know were in our system. That took planning, logistics, and solid intelligence on where our ships were located so that the miniships could avoid them. Even more impressive is that the Formics also had intelligence on what these asteroids are composed of. Think about it. Every seized asteroid is a known water-ice asteroid with high concentrations of silicon and other useful metals. These aren't random rocks. These are specified targets because of their chemical composition. Note also that only one Formic miniship went to each asteroid. So no redundancies. This is an enemy that is extremely organized and extremely well informed. Nothing they do is random. If their actions appear random, it's simply another form of deception.”

“He's right,” said Mazer. “We can't determine the intentions of these asteroids based on their current movements. The Formics know we can see them. They're going to be even more deceptive than normal.”

“So we can infer nothing?” said Li.

“We can infer a few things,” said Bingwen. “We may not be right, but we can guess with confidence.”

“Give us an example,” said Li.

“These asteroids are easy to blow up,” said Bingwen. “Their atmosphere is volatile. So they're vulnerable. The Hive Queen knows that. She also knows we'll figure that out. So she seizes a lot more asteroids than she actually needs because she expects us to take out a large number of them. Maybe she only needs thirty percent of these rocks. Or five percent. We don't know. But it's safe to assume that a lot of these rocks are expected casualties. The seeming random flight of these asteroids reinforces that idea, because hey, if you don't technically need them in the end, why not use them to confuse the enemy?”

“That doesn't tell us anything useful,” said Zembassi.

“It tells us the Hive Queen has a unique purpose in mind for at least some of these asteroids,” said Bingwen. “And it puts the extinction-weapon theory into serious doubt. Because if she were sincerely trying to annihilate Earth with asteroids, she would have simply done so. This is far more asteroids than we can stop. The Hive Queen knows that. But does she send the asteroids to Earth? No. She doesn't even put a single one on a trajectory to Earth because she doesn't want to take that risk. She won't even try to deceive us on that because it endangers her prize.”

“This is still only speculation,” said Zembassi.

“Of course,” said Bingwen. “We can't know anything definitive until we identify which asteroids matter.”

“Which is impossible,” said one of the senior officers.

“Not impossible,” said Mazer. “But like Bingwen said, we can guess with confidence. So let's guess. First we have the ones that are moving away from the center of the ecliptic, away from Earth. Let's assume that Bingwen is right and that these are feints. We ignore these.” He looked at Zembassi. “How do we make those go away in the program?”

Zembassi entered the command, and a portion of the asteroids that were red turned white again.

“We can also dismiss those asteroids that went out of the ecliptic and came back down again,” said Zembassi. “Those are obviously feints as well.”

“Maybe not,” said Mazer. “Those might be the important ones. Think of the logic. The Formics send them so we'll assume they're not important, so we'll dismiss them as non-threatening. Then they bring them back in when they think we're not looking.”

“Sounds deceptive to me,” said Li.

“But the Formics will use deception on top of deception,” said Bingwen. “Let's hold that thought and consider the last group. Asteroids that are coalescing into a group. Of these asteroids, the most valuable asteroid is the one that has to travel the least distance because it will be exposed to the enemy for the least amount of time. The Hive Queen would make the other asteroids come to it. To protect it.”

“Now we're anthropomorphizing a rock,” said Zembassi. “An asteroid can't protect anything. It's a rock.”

“For the sake of our argument,” said Bingwen.

“Yes, but the entire argument is based on the assumption that some asteroids are more valuable than others,” said Zembassi. “We don't know if that's true.”

“That's warfare,” said Bingwen. “Picking the targets that matter the most and not wasting time on targets that inflict little damage to the enemy. And even if we're wrong, if the asteroids are all equal, we will have lost nothing by taking out one we think might be more valuable than the others.”

“Except the time it takes to reach it,” said Li.

“Consider that last group again,” said Bingwen. “Again, all we're doing is guessing with confidence. Right? Looking for a pattern within the deception.”

“Go on,” said Zembassi.

“Let's assume we're right about the last group,” said Bingwen. “That the one asteroid in the group that travels the least distance to reach the group is the most valuable. And let's also assume that Mazer is right, that the asteroids that go in and out of the ecliptic might also be valuable. How many of the asteroids meet both of those requirements, I wonder. In other words, how many asteroids went out of the ecliptic and returned to join a group and were also the asteroid in that group that traveled the least distance to join it?”

“Deception on top of deception,” said Li.

“I'm completely confused,” said Zembassi.

Bingwen stepped to the starchart. “May I?”

“Be my guest,” said Zembassi, stepping away from the holotable.

Bingwen reached into the holofield and started entering code. “We first have to assume that every asteroid is on its ultimate trajectory,” said Bingwen. “That may not be true, but we can only work with the data we have. So first we need to speed up time here and see if there are any more groups that will eventually form in the future based on these trajectories.”

The red dots in the starchart began to move faster.

“Then we set the parameters we outlined and see if any asteroids meet them,” said Bingwen.

The dots all disappeared except for twelve red dots.

“Twelve,” said Li. “What does that mean?”

“It may mean nothing,” said Zembassi. “We're playing guessing games here.”

“It may mean a lot,” said Mazer. “Which of those asteroids is nearest to us?”

“Castalia,” said Bingwen. “A peanut-shaped asteroid.”

“How long would it take us to reach it?” asked Li.

“Those aren't our orders,” said Zembassi. “I called you here because our orders are to go to an asteroid already near our trajectory.”

“An asteroid that may not be worth investigating,” said Mazer.

“Just as Castalia may not be worth investigating,” said Zembassi. “We're grasping at straws.”

“We can reach it in under two months,” said Bingwen. “It's remarkably close, all things considered.”

Everyone turned to Zembassi, looking for an answer. He sighed and considered. “I called you here to give you orders, not to have you alter my orders. We could be chasing a ghost.”

“Or hitting a high-priority target,” said Mazer.

“And what am I supposed to tell the Strategos and the Polemarch? That a thirteen-year-old boy played an elaborate guessing game and chose Castalia?”

“If they knew
which
thirteen-year-old they might not disagree with the idea,” said Li.

“Actually, I'm only twelve,” said Bingwen. “And it wasn't my suggestion. We all reached this conclusion together. Could it be totally wrong? Absolutely. We might be way off. But there are plenty of IF ships out there heading toward random asteroids to investigate them. We'd be the only one testing a theory.”

Zembassi said nothing.

“Would you like to consult with Rear Admiral Vaganov?” Bingwen asked. “I noticed he's not present here.”

“He's not present because this is not his command,” said Zembassi. “It's mine. He is a passenger on this vessel. Nothing more.”

“I'm glad to hear you say that,” said Bingwen. “Because Vaganov would bury the idea. He wouldn't even bring it to the Strategos and the Polemarch for fear that it might tarnish his reputation. Too risky. He's more concerned about doing what's right for him than in doing what's right.”

Zembassi turned to Li. “If I didn't know any better, I'd say this boy was trying to manipulate me.”

“If you know that I'm doing it,” said Bingwen, “and if what I say is true, it's not manipulation. I'm only giving voice to what you're already thinking. I'm twelve. I can get away with a little petulance. Also, if we deviate in our course, we'd delay getting Vaganov to his destination. I suspect he wouldn't be too pleased with that.”

“That may be the best argument for going that I've heard yet,” said Zembassi. He scratched his chin, considered a moment, then turned to his assistant. “Lieutenant, open an ansible transmission with the Polemarch. If all of you will excuse me, I have a call to make. Bingwen, you stay. I can't explain this nearly as well as you can.”

 

CHAPTER 28

Observer Ship

Ansible transmission received at Turris Outpost, Kuiper Belt, 2118

STRATEGOS:
   You are a go. Godspeed. Don't come back until the Wicked Witch is dead.

Imala stood anchored to the floor at the docking hatch, watching the Gagak approach the IF outpost. After four months of travel she was eager to stretch her legs a little and take a break from the cramped confines of the ship. Her hope was that the space station would have one of those new zero G showers, with hot water floating inside a tube. Or maybe a large cafeteria with a variety of foods to choose from. After three weeks of rationed black beans and rice she was ready for a change.

But one look at the outpost told her she was in for a disappointment. The outpost was no bigger than the ship, and maybe even slightly smaller. If it was comfort she wanted, she wouldn't find it here.

“You notice anything strange about this space station?” Victor said. He was anchored to the floor beside her, looking out the porthole.

“Other than its size, you mean?” said Imala.

“It doesn't have any transmitters,” said Victor. “No dishes, no receivers, no antennas. It's just a box.”

Imala hadn't noticed that, but he was right. How did the station send and receive transmissions, especially this far out? “You would think their transmitters would be bigger than normal,” she said.

“You would think,” Victor agreed.

“What do we know about this place?” Imala asked.

“Next to nothing. It's not even on our starcharts. Had the IF not sent us the coordinates, we never would have known it existed.”

Imala didn't like that. They were going into this blind, without any idea of what the IF had in mind. The transmission they had received had promised that by coming here the IF could help keep the family safe. Imala had assumed that that meant the station would be a hub of sorts, with lots of ship traffic coming and going. Perhaps the station would provide an escort for them as they headed back toward Luna. Or perhaps the IF would offload the family onto a large transport with other miners seeking refuge. Or … something. But this, how was this tiny box of a station going to keep them safe? There were no ships docked here. And no ships in the vicinity heading this way either. This wasn't a hub; it was a dead end.