Two Peasants and a President (53 page)

In February of 1979, China invaded Vietnam along most of its northern border.  While China was able to penetrate several kilometers into the northern part of the country, the Vietnamese, using the same tactics that had proved successful against both the French and the Americans, made the Chinese pay in blood.  China withdrew 29 days later, declaring that it had taught Vietnam a lesson.   No one doubted that should a repeat of this co
n
flict take place, it would not only be very costly in terms of blood and treasure, it would risk a wider war.  Were an outsider able to peer into the inner sanctums of both sides, he would note that two groups of old men, burdened with the ancient Oriental concept of saving face, were likely underestimating the danger they faced. 

The ships proceeded south, hugging the Vietnamese coast well away
from the Chinese island of Hainan and the Hainan submarine base.  In recent years, intelligence reports indicate that the Chinese have dug an enormous underground harbor large enough to hide up to twenty nuclear submarines from satellites.  It has been alleged that submarines can enter and leave the base totally submerged.  The facility is also reportedly being enlarged to accommodate carrier battle groups for future use. 

In the combat information center of both Vietnamese frigates, anti-submarine warfare systems were fully engaged, looking for any sign of enemy submarines lying in wait.  However, if the Chinese intended to use tactics employed in the previous strike, they could have submarines stationed beyond the range of the frigate’s anti-submarine detection but within range of anti-ship missiles that can be launched from under water.  While the frigates both carried helicopters designed for anti-submarine warfare, they did not wish to send them closer to the mainland without specific targets.  Both ships’ air defense radars scanned the skies for any sign of Chinese warplanes.  For the moment, at least, there were none. 

The convoy would hug the coast and continue south until is was roughly on the same latitude as the ancient city of Hue and more than 200 kilometers from the southernmost part of Hainan Island where it would veer east toward the Philippines.  It was not the shortest route, which meant a
d
ditional cost, but the purpose was to test China’s resolve.  Once it was well east of Hainan, the convoy would be hundreds of kilometers from China’s mainland coast.  If attacked here, it would be far into what most every nation save China regards as international waters.  The journey south would take hours, more than enough time for China to plan an attack, assuming that is what they intended to do.  But would they dare sink an American-flagged ship? 

******

Unlike his admirals, who were busily planning to sink a container ship whose identity they were not yet aware of, Li
Guo
Peng
was narrowly focused on the humiliating disaster that had befallen another convoy, this one on a dusty highway north of Beijing.  In a piece of rather silly bluster, he had sent not only troops but two armored vehicles to the sight of his nightmare.  A
s
suming that the farmers must have had help from the locals, his soldiers brutally beat several hapless peasants, further engendering discontent among those who were typically far removed from Beijing’s trials and tribulations.  As he might have assumed, had he not been so consumed with revenge, the perpetrators were gone and had left behind only their now
in
famous calling
cards –
arrows. 

Given the elapsed time and the initial confusion over the distress call, the farmers were now well away from the scene, a few having already reached their destinations.  With his thirst for immediate revenge gnawing at him, Li cast wildly about for some action that might net him quick gains.  He had already dispatched several military helicopters to search for suspicious farm trucks and had set up road blocks, but aside from terrifying a number of i
n
nocent citizens, he had come up empty-handed.  Had he not been so totally consumed with ego-centric displays of fury, he might have looked in on his admirals.  Not since his order regarding Vietnam had drifted through his mind just before falling asleep had he given any thought to what should have been receiving his full attention.  Like other recent mistakes, that would r
e
turn to haunt him. 

As the convoy continued south along the coast, radar on both frigates picked up a single plane leaving
Hainan’s
military airfield.  It was quickly identified as Chinese a Y8-CB, China’s newest surveillance aircraft, bristling with antennae.  It was unescorted, not because it was so close to the coast as to be sure to provoke conflict if accompanied by fighters, but because China intended to chose the time and place of any hostility. 

The Chinese aircraft immediately spotted the two Vietnamese SU-27’s that were scrambled to observe it.  Airmen on the Chinese plane as well as the Vietnamese fighters could see each other quite plainly, though the SU-27’s kept enough space between them and the Y8-CB to avoid a repeat of a coll
i
sion between a Chinese fighter and an American surveillance aircraft which had ended with the capture and internment of the American plane and its crew.  The reconnaissance plane made another pass over the container ship, this time lower.  The American flag was clearly visible, as were two modern Ru
s
sian-built frigates.  If the Chinese were to choose to attack the convoy, there could no longer be any doubt as to exactly who and what they were attacking. 

******

Though his doctors had made it plain that he must not attempt to speak until the hole in his diaphragm had healed, Virgil was sitting up in bed watching cable news.  The hospital had agreed to move Molly in with him and Ping, their faithful protector, now watched over both of them.  Though a police officer sat outside the room 24/7, hospital staff joked that if there were any hit men in the area, they should be more afraid of Ping than the cop.  She kept a wary eye on anyone who entered the room, doctors included. 

It was during the evening news broadcast that video smuggled out of
China brought resounding laughter to living rooms around the world.  Pi
c
tures of Chinese military vehicles, their tires looking like victims of a porc
u
pine attack, and empty buses that had held dissidents destined for a hellish concentration camp were broadcast worldwide.  Virgil’s diaphragm r
e
minded him rather painfully that laughter, like speaking should be avoided; Molly and Ping were in stitches.  But they were well aware that there would be repercussions both inside and outside of China.  The only question was how far they would go.  When the laughter had subsided, Molly noticed Ping looking wistfully out the window, doubtless thinking of friends now in grave danger. 

Due to his vocal impairment, Virgil had become quite adept at texting, as had Molly since her neck wounds still made it painful to speak more than a few words.  In a ritual emblematic of the 21
st
century, they would text back and forth even though not more than six feet separated them.  No sooner had the news broadcast moved on to another subject than one of his aides texted him with a report that an American container ship had left Vietnam and was expected to challenge the Chinese blockade.  In a further bit of disturbing news, the aide told Baines that China was rumored to have moved Brett to Tianjin.  The senator sat for several moments before responding. 

I’m afraid we have a complete lunatic on our hands,
he finally text
ed. 

The American president, having done everything in his power to avoid confronting China in any meaningful way, was finally coming to the concl
u
sion that he was losing the respect of his people to an extent that jeopardized his presidency.  Realizing that the likelihood of China resuming its support of him in the form of further investment was virtually nil, he decided to change tack.  In an about face from the obsequious cowing to China that had earned him so much derision, he resolved to reinvent himself as a man with bac
k
bone.  But when a man who understands politics far more than world affairs or warfare suddenly attempts to transform himself into a warrior, the potential for miscalculation increases exponentially. 

The president ordered the 7
th
Fleet, currently south of Japan, to set course for the South China Sea where it would meet the American flagged container ship and escort it eastward into the Pacific.  The problem was that the convoy’s horseshoe shaped course had taken it first south.  It had then turned East toward the Philippines, maintaining a course roughly parallel to and well away from the Chinese coast.  Only when it was two hundred miles west of Luzon, the northernmost of the major Philippine islands, would it again turn north and exit, still wel
l south of the Chinese mainland, between Taiwan and the Philippines.
 

The president had assumed that the 7
th
Fleet would sail southwest
through the gap south of Taiwan and north of the Philippines, entering the South China Sea just above the 20
th
parallel.   But it would take the fleet approximately as long as it would take the slower moving convoy to reach that point.  That meant that only the convoy’s exit from the South China Sea could be covered by the fleet’s air assets and the Chinese would have hu
n
dreds of miles over which to carry out any attack, none of which could be covered by the 7
th
Fleet. 

Furthermore, the president had provided only for the fleet’s defense of itself; the rules of engagement did not specify that Chinese forces attacking the container ship could be engaged, thus making the American fleet mere spectators.  The point of the exercise thus eluded everyone in the navy.  Finally, disregarding a fundamental foundation of all military doctrine, the president had specified that no other carrier battle group be ordered into the area as a reserve force.  The man had placed a warrior’s hat upon his head, but in his heart he was still a politician. 

On the bridge of the carrier USS George Washington, Captain Johnston was trying to contain the rage in his gut at the utter stupidity of his co
m
mander-in-chief’s orders.  If the carrier battle group could not defend the container ship, then why had the president ordered it into harms way?  What could possibly be gained if China was to be allowed to sink the container ship with impunity while a US carrier battle group stood by watching?  And what force would come to the 7
th
Fleet’s assistance if some of its ships were a
t
tacked, damaged or sunk?  It would mean the unmitigated humili
ation of the United States Navy, not to mention the potential loss of some of its ships.
  The captain wondered if his president had any idea what he was getting into - or any strategy for getting out of it. 

******

Upon being informed that the Vietnamese frigates were escorting an American-flagged container ship, Li paused but said nothing.  The naval aide who had arrived with the news stood by silently, awaiting instruction.  Like the American carrier captain, he was keenly aware that should China choose to move to the next level by directly attacking an American vessel, one of two outcomes was likely: the American president would either fold or he would defend the convoy.  The problem was that when politicians with utterly no military experience, out of ego or fear for their job, resort to military action, the absence of forethought makes it far more likely that events will spiral out of control. 

We now have two presidents who don’t know one end of a gun from the
other controlling the most dangerous militaries on the planet
, the aide thought uneasily. 

“Where is the convoy now?” asked Li.

“Still headed south along the coast, Sir.”

“How many submarines do we have in the area?”

“Three, Sir, one is shadowing the convoy but staying well north.  The other two are in blocking positions near the twentieth parallel.  If the convoy turns north and attempts to reach open ocean between the Philippines and Taiwan, they will be in a position to attack them
before the reach that point
.” 

“And if they continue south,”

“Nothing would be accomplished by sailing south except one container ship would have a very costly voyage.  Only by exiting north of the Phili
p
pines can they expect their maritime traffic to be profitable.  Going south proves nothing.  They have no choice, they must turn north.” 

“Inform me immediately when they do,” Li said.

As the naval aide suspected, Li had already made up his mind; he had no choice.  Much as Hitler had remarked upon attacking the Soviet Union that he would either make Germany the most powerful nation on Earth or totally destroy her, Li had embarked on a path of ruthless, uncompromising action from which there was no turning back.  The naval aide also suspected that, like Hitler, Li’s early successes would cause him to grossly overestimate his military prowess and thus eschew the advice of his generals.