Ultimatum (58 page)

The military assessment from Admiral Enderlich showed no significant activity since the speech on Monday. The domestic intelligence assessment revealed an increase in rhetoric on extremist networks. A similar increase in rhetoric was being seen on international jihadist sites and among left-wing Latin American networks, but there was no evidence of activity on the ground as a result. The country’s security status remained at a precautionary Orange A, but this was under daily review and was likely to be downgraded to Orange B if conditions remained unchanged.

After the meeting, the president sat down with Larry Olsen, Alan Ball, John Eales, and Ben Hoffman to talk through the next steps on the diplomatic front. He had also asked Al Graham to come down from New York to join the meeting. Graham was angry about having been left in the dark about the negotiations with the Chinese and had made a vague threat to quit, which Joe Benton had ignored.

The annual opening session of the UN General Assembly was scheduled to take place in two weeks. The United States, like every other country in the world, had a slot for a ten-minute speech in the fortnight-long general debate that followed. The Security Council vote that China was demanding would come before this.

“Do we know when it is yet?” asked Benton.

“Thursday,” replied Graham.

“What are they going to ask for?”

“We haven’t seen a draft yet.”

“It’ll be censure,” said Olsen. “Demand to return to the Kyoto track. Demand to remove sanctions.”

“That’s just fine after what they’ve done,” said Benton. “They’ve acted quicker than us.”

“Technically, the Chinese are saying what they’ve done aren’t sanctions. They’re internal market reforms.”

“What does the WTO have to say about that?”

“I believe the WTO is more concerned about us at the moment,” said John Eales.

“The Security Council resolution fails because we veto it,” said Olsen. “They know that, we know it. This is all about who isolates whom. They want to show the world no one supports us. At this stage, if we have even one major supporter, that’s a win.”

“Agreed,” said the president. “Who’s it going to be?”

“You can forget the EuroCore,” said Graham.

“Japan,” said Ball. “It’s gotta be Japan.”

Olsen shook his head. “They want the Kurils.”

“So give them the Kurils,” said Graham. His attitude toward Larry Olsen was about the same as Alan Ball’s.

“That gets Russia pissed,” replied Olsen sharply.

“Russia’s not voting for us on this anyway.”

“We’re going to need Russia if we’re ever going to get the Chinese to the party,” said Benton. “They switch off the gas, we win.” He turned to Olsen. “What have you heard from them?”

Larry Olsen shook his head.

“You going there?”

“I’m waiting to hear.” In the next week, Olsen was going to meet with as many foreign ministers of as many key potential supporters of the Carbon Plan as he had been able to get to agree to meet with him. His aim was to obtain their support and arrange meetings between their heads of state and President Benton in the coming weeks. A visit with Goncharov, the Russian foreign minister, was number one on his list.

“So who else can we look at?” said Benton. “India? Brazil?”

There was silence.

“Well, I’m not giving in to Japan on the Kurils,” said the president. “It’s only a vote next week. We veto it. At this stage I’m not going to risk blowing off the Russians.”

“The Japanese want whales,” said Graham.

“Whales?”

“It’s only a vote, as you said. They might do it for whales if they think they’ll get us on the Kurils later. They might abstain, at least.”

“Then give them the fucking whales,” said Eales.

“Hold on a minute!” said Ben Hoffman.

“What?” demanded Eales. “You want to hold onto the whales, Ben, and lose everything else?”

Hoffman frowned. “It’s only a vote.”

“Offer them whales, Al,” said the president. “But nothing on the Kurils. Not a word.”

Al Graham nodded. “Also, Nleki wants to see you. He says he has an idea.”

Larry Olsen rolled his eyes.

“What’s his idea?” asked Eales.

“I don’t know.” Al Graham looked back at the president. “If you want to avoid us looking isolated, you should see him.”

“If we see him,” said Olsen, “and it doesn’t go anywhere, we just look more isolated than before.”

Graham ignored him. “You should see him, Joe. You really should.”

~ * ~

Tuesday, September 20

Oval Office, The White House

The secretary-general had brought James Erikssen, the UN undersecretary for political affairs. Al Graham, had come from New York to sit in on the meeting. Larry Olsen was absent. The secretary of state was in Ukraine, still hoping to arrange a meeting with Foreign Minister Goncharov of Russia.

“I want you to know, Mr. President,” said Nleki, “that I applaud your aims. I understand that your desire is to bring an end to the cycle of environmental destructiveness that the world has been in for half a century. And I agree with you, President Benton, that until this time we have not acted sufficiently.”

“Thank you, Mr. Secretary,” said Benton.

“But I must tell you, sir, that the method is something I have difficulty with. And I speak for a great many member states when I say this. The method turns back years of patient bridge-building by our predecessors, both in my position and yours. I ask you, therefore, President Benton, to think again.”

“This was not a decision I took lightly,” replied Benton.

“Naturally, Mr. President. I am sure that it caused you much heart-searching.”

“It certainly did.”

“And I reiterate that I support wholeheartedly your aims. There is no difference between us in that. Indeed, I have been calling for such action from my first day in the secretary-general’s post.”

That was something of an exaggeration. Nleki’s record of environmental action was mixed. Although he had always listed environmental action as a key global priority, he had coupled it with a concern to maintain the Kyoto process as the exclusive forum for discussion and to keep the process under UN control. Compromises had been made in this cause which in retrospect had proved costly.

“You know that you will lose Thursday’s vote,” said Nleki.

“I thought the outcome of votes wasn’t known until they were held,” replied the president.

“Mr. President, you will lose it by quite a margin.”

“But not unanimously. We’ll have support.”

The president saw a momentary expression of surprise in the secretary-general’s eyes. Either he didn’t know something the secretary-general expected him to know, or it was the other way around.

“You’ll be isolated. You’ll veto the resolution, but it’s the isolation that will damage you, Mr. President.”

“I’m prepared to risk it.”

“How does this help your cause?”

“It doesn’t help the cause, Mr. Secretary, but it may be unavoidable. A lot of unavoidable things get done on the way to victory.”

“But it’s not that it just doesn’t help, Mr. President. It damages your chances to get the victory, as you describe it, that you seek.”

Benton didn’t reply. In the week that had passed since his announcement of the Carbon Plan, the Chinese government had been sitting back from the international stage, letting the rest of the world do its work for it. The formality of a Security Council vote that the U.S. would veto would add fuel to the outrage among those who already thought America was thumbing its nose at the world community, which included pretty much everyone. But on the other hand, how much more outraged could they get? And as for the longer-term implication, Security Council votes had never stopped anyone changing course later on and doing the exact opposite of what they had been advocating, and Joe Benton didn’t see why that was going to be different this time around. But it was in the interest of the two men sitting in front of him, both UN officials, to make him think a Security Council vote really mattered.

“I think what the secretary-general is saying, Mr. President,” said Erikssen, “is that perhaps now is the time to look at what you have gained and see if there is another way to build on that. Your statement last week, the Carbon Plan you’ve released, these are powerful things, Mr. President. There is no doubt you have changed the terms of debate. Your plan now is the basis for everything going forward. That’s an extraordinary achievement, sir. Your leadership and commitment speak for themselves. Having done that, perhaps, if I may say so, perhaps now is the time to use that recognition, that leadership, that commitment, and channel it back into a process where everybody can engage.”

The president glanced at Nleki, then back at the undersecretary. “What exactly does that mean, Mr. Erikssen?”

“If the United States were to come back into the Kyoto process now, with your leadership, sir, I think it’s absolutely clear that the process would be utterly rejuvenated. With this commitment from you, others would come on board, others who agree with what you’ve proposed but, at the moment, can’t accept it because they can’t be seen to be bullied into it. Reverse the sanctions you’ve imposed on China, Mr. President, announce that you’re going to come back into the Kyoto process under the auspices of the United Nations—but with these clear aims, the ones you outlined in your speech last week, which the secretary-general and I genuinely support—and you could achieve these objectives in a truly collaborative, multilateral, and sustainable manner.”

“You think I’d achieve them?”

“Yes, Mr. President, I do. I think you’d also achieve a large number of other things. You’d establish the United States in the kind of leadership role which—if you’ll forgive me—is far closer in nature to the way you expressed your thinking about the international role of the United States during your presidential campaign. You could take a great step forward in the way you position the United States to be effective as a leader internationally in the future.”

“And you think I’d get what I’ve set out to get on the question of emissions?”

“I do, sir.”

“But if I’ll get what I set out to get—which is what’s in the Carbon Plan—if other countries are going to do this, why don’t they go ahead and do it now?”

“It’s the manner, Mr. President.”

Joe Benton gazed at Erikssen, a slim man with curly blond hair. Then he turned to the secretary-general.

“Is that also your view, Mr. Secretary?”

“President Benton,” said Nleki, “I urge you to avoid this isolating vote. As Mr. Erikssen has said, you’ve changed the terms of debate. I urge you not to underestimate what that means.”

“Take what I’ve got, you mean, or risk losing it all?”

The secretary-general didn’t reply.

“The trouble is, gentlemen, at the moment I have nothing. Only your judgment that I’ve changed the terms of debate.”

“I think that’s everybody’s judgment, sir,” said Erikssen.

“Perhaps. But terms of debate change one way, then the terms of debate change another. As long as it’s still just debate, nothing’s different.”