After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

‘It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Halliday’s landmark book
Arabia Without Sultans
. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written an important account of prospects for the Gulf region … Orientalist special pleading doesn’t get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.’

Ian Black,
The Guardian

‘What is the secret of the Gulf monarchies’ survival? There are numerous reasons. The support of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this exceptionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf monarchies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. … This fine-tuned monarchical resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive array of evidence.’

Ziauddin Sardar,
The Independent

‘Britain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidson’s warning should be on the desk of every Foreign Office Minister.’

Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights Group

‘Davidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone—at least in their current form—within the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.’

Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College

‘
After the Sheikhs
is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of some of the world’s last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.’

Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar

‘At a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neighbours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narrative and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.’

Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia

‘This book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC, by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidson’s predicted outcome, and by every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to come.’

Ala’a Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain Watch

AFTER THE SHEIKHS

The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

CHRISTOPHER M. DAVIDSON

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Davidson, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael)
After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies / Christopher Davidson.
p. cm.
Summary: “Noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to”
— Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-19-933064-5 (hardback)
1. Persian Gulf States—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Saudi Arabia—Politics and government—21st century. 3. Monarchy—Persian Gulf States. 4. Monarchy—Saudi
Arabia. I. Title.
JQ1840.D38 2013
320.9536—dc23
2013014438

1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2

Printed in India
on Acid-Free Paper

Preface and Acknowledgements

Acronyms

Introduction

The revolutions that never came

Explaining monarchical survival

Further explanations

1. State Formation and Economic Development

Origins of the Gulf monarchies

Britain and the early order

Independence and state formation

Economic development trajectories

2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters

Distributing wealth

National elites

Co-opting expatriates

Cults of personality

Heritage and history

Co-opting religion

Environmental credentials

3. Explaining Survival—External Matters

Development assistance and international charity

Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation

Soft power in the West: strategic investments and development assistance

Soft power in the West: cultural institutions

Soft power in the West: financing universities and manipulating research

Soft power in the East: China and Japan

4. Mounting Internal Pressures

Resources, populations, and subsidies

Voluntary unemployment

Squandering wealth

Poverty and real unemployment

Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism

Censorship and limiting expression

5. Mounting External Pressures

Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy

Western bases and armaments

Antagonising Iran

Israel: the unholy alliance

Division and disunity

Interference and coups d’état

6. The Coming Collapse

Evolving opposition

Modernising forces

Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history

Bahrain: rage and revolution

Oman: protests and promises

Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing

Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’

United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges

Qatar: champion or charlatan?

Conclusion

Postscript

Notes

Bibliography

Index

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I began researching and writing
After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to traditional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, terror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolutions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and—more importantly—they strengthened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf monarchies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version contends that most of these regimes—at least in their present form—will be gone
within the next two to five years
.

A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and—on occasion—some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of
course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Economics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts.

Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co.

ACRONYMS