Brazil Is the New America: How Brazil Offers Upward Mobility in a Collapsing World (48 page)

Brazil is the only country in the world with large areas of fertile land already mapped and available for immediate use. Estimates of Brazil's unused arable land range as high as 350 million hectares (865 million acres) that still can be used for farming—an area more than two and a half times as large as the land area of the United States dedicated to farming.
23
This good land is available cheaply.

While the United States currently produces more agricultural products by volume and weight, Brazil's agro sector is the world's most profitable. Brazil's free-market farmers make more money from their crops than heavily subsidized U.S. farmers.

Elsewhere in this book, I spell out reasons to suspect that alarms about global warming are overbought. My politically incorrect view is that climate change is driven by solar physics rather than trivial additions to global CO
2
from use of carbon-based fuels. Temperatures have fluctuated cyclically over the centuries in conjunction with sunspot activity. The recent downturn in solar output presages a turn to colder weather, perhaps akin to that which characterized the Little Ice Age.

While the exact directions that climate will take are still to be seen, the possibility of distinctly cooler weather during this century should be a matter of attention for every thinking person. It would be a development that could prove disastrous as the human population soars above 7 billion.

Of particular note, the average summer/winter temperature gradient in the farm belt of the United States is 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Cooler temperatures could drastically slash food output in North America. Already, the Canadian Wheat Board has warned of a drop in the length of the growing season by 10 days in recent years.

A return to Little Ice Age conditions could find food in scarce supply almost everywhere—except Brazil. With more than three-quarters of a billion acres of fertile land unused for farming, the one economy that will be able to feed itself and quench its thirst, given the probable range of climate change over this century, is Brazil.

The average summer/winter temperature gradient in Brazil is less than the average temperature difference between day and night. Hence, even if winter temperatures prevailed year-round in a spate of global cooling, growing conditions in Brazil would be little changed.

But if cooling resulted in winter temperatures lingering into spring or coming early in autumn, growing conditions in North Atlantic temperate economies could be seriously impaired. Remember also, that Brazilian farmers can bring in up to two crops a year.

This is only one reason that farmers are leading the parade of opportunity seekers emigrating from the United States to Brazil. Young families who could only afford a few thousand acres in the Midwest are acquiring tens of thousands of acres of cheaper, Brazilian land. As reported in
U.S. News
, they are realizing gains in operating income as well as capital appreciation of land:

“What we're doing here isn't all that different from what my great, great-grandfather did,” says Matthew Kruse, a native of Royal, Iowa.

He now directs operations on three farms totaling 23,000 acres for an outfit called Brazil Iowa Farms. He first visited Brazil in 2001, then moved here permanently in 2004. He has a Brazilian girlfriend, and out on the farms he manages between 90 and 150 workers, depending on the time of year. When he first visited rural Brazil, he says, “it seemed like we were looking at something in National Geographic. We had fallen off the planet. Now, I call it home.”
24

Among the growing numbers of American farmers who have sold out and moved to Brazil for better land and a better life, are Scott and Mandy Harker, formerly of Idaho, where they struggled to make a profit. They told
U.S. News
, “For us, it was like sitting on a sinking ship, waiting for it to go down.” They sold everything in Idaho and moved to Brazil.

Brazil is already the world's largest producer of beef and poultry. It is also a leading producer of coffee, sugar, soybeans, corn, orange juice, tobacco, and almost every other farm product.

The question is whether Brazil's middle class is destined to stall out at roughly the same level as that of the middle class in the United States or whether Brazil can continue to grow. As indicated, I believe that a crucial element informing growth in the future will be the ability of an economy to increase energy inputs.

As explored earlier in this book, Brazil is perhaps better situated to increase energy inputs than any other leading economy. Not only does Brazil enjoy a net surplus of petroleum, with many tens of billions of untapped reserves in the presalt fields, but Brazil is also the world leader in renewable energy. Brazil has the factor endowments to continue growing in the face of the challenges that beset the leading temperate zone economies. If you have human capital, you may be able to put it to better use in Brazil than you can wherever you currently call home.

The very fact that Brazil is a rising power where about 40 million people have emerged from poverty in the first decade of the twenty-first century, augurs well for the prospects of social stability. As canvassed throughout these pages, Brazil has vast scope for continued growth because of its diverse energy resources and position as the emerging, tropical agricultural powerhouse. Brazil has food, water, and power for better living. But the fact that the prosperity of Brazil is destined to increase, while that of the advanced temperate economies crumbles away, implies that the Brazilian state may not be as weakened as nation-states elsewhere that face crises of growth. Consequently, there is a better-than-even prospect that the Brazilian government will impose legal restrictions further complicating the ability of non-Brazilians to profit from Brazil's future prosperity.

If you are persuaded by my argument about how the world is changing now, one of the better strategies for taking advantage of that change may be to secure a foothold in Brazil for yourself and your family. Obtain Brazilian residence, or even a Brazilian passport, to assure that you will always be welcome in the country of the future.

How do you obtain Brazilian citizenship? As is usual in things Brazilian, there is no bright-line time requirement for obtaining Brazilian nationality. There are various avenues open to you.

The slowest and perhaps least exciting way is to become a permanent resident of Brazil for 15 years and avoid creating a criminal record during that time. If you can handle that, you qualify. However, the process can be shortened to just four years if you can learn to read and write Portuguese and you can gain employment or show proof that you have sufficient capital to support yourself and family. It can be further reduced to three years if you own property or a business in Brazil with a certain value. If you have certain professional, scientific, or artistic abilities, time requirements can be reduced to two years. And the wait can be shortened to a single year if you have a Brazilian wife or child. As is usual in such matters, you also have to be in good health and show good conduct.

Equally, if you are a citizen of Portugal, your wait for Brazilian nationality may be minimal. According to Paragraph 1, Article 12 of the Federal Constitution of Brazil, Portuguese citizens with permanent residence in Brazil have the same rights as Brazilian citizens.

This is an advantage that is being exploited to the full, as record high unemployment in Portugal has led some 330,000 Portuguese to legally immigrate to Brazil, up from 277,000 as recently as 2010. As a matter of interest, the Portuguese government, unlike the U.S. government, is actually encouraging its citizens to leave so they can find work where the prospects are better. In late 2011, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho advised unemployed teachers to search for jobs in Brazil.
25

Given the choices, and the various positives I've discussed throughout this book, it probably wouldn't hurt to try and secure a Brazilian wife or child.

My experience with my Brazilian son has been a delight. This may not seem likely to translate very well to your circumstances, but perhaps it may. One of the strong points of the joyous Brazilian culture is the strong family relationships that tend to prevail. If you are an American, you have no doubt heard loose talk about family values; Brazilians really mean it. They have a lot of fun with their families. If you become involved with a Brazilian spouse, it will not be a one-to-one relationship, but a relationship of one to many. If my experience is any indication, you will be welcomed at every turn, fed prodigious quantities of Brazilian BBQ, and lubricated with your choice of wine, beer, and cachaça.

In general, Brazilians have a lot of fun. Where else would the Minister of Health call for more sex and dancing?
26
In a world reeling from grim economic disappointments, you could do a lot worse than to join in with those who are enjoying upward mobility in numerous economic spheres, including agriculture, aviation, biofuels, commodities, energy, medicine, music, and television. Not to mention the warm weather and a party culture that few other countries can match.

1
Joseph A. Tainter, “Complexity, Problem-Solving, and Sustainable Societies,” from
Getting Down to Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics
(Washington, DC: Island Press, 1996).

2
Ibid.

3
Joseph A. Tainter,
The Collapse of Complex Societies
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), 4.

4
Tainter, “Complexity, Problem-Solving, and Sustainable Societies.”

5
Ibid.

6
“U.S. Education Spending and Performance vs. the World,” MAT@USC blog, February 8, 2011,
http://mat.usc.edu/u-s-education-versus-the-world-infographic
.

7
Bill Ponath, “Um. . . . the dog ate my report card,”
Verdict for America
(blog), December 11, 2010,
www.verdictforamerica.com/content/um-dog-ate-my-report-card
.

8
“PISA 2009 Results: Executive Summary, Figure I., Comparing Countries' and Economies' Performance,” OECD,
www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/12/46643496.pdf
.

9
For an explanation of the budget shell game on military spending, focused on FY 2012 requests, see
www.salon.com/2011/03/01/national_security_budget_government_shutdown
.

10
William Nordhaus, “The Problem of Excessive Military Spending in the United States,” paper prepared for American Economic Association session on “The Costs of War” January 8, 2005, 2–5. Available at
http://blogs.iq.harvard.edu/sss/archives/ASSA_US%20Military%20Spending.pdf
.

11
Shan Carter and Amanda Cox, “One 9/11 Tally: $3.3 trillion.”
New York Times
, September 8, 2011,
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/09/08/us/sept-11-reckoning/cost-graphic.html
.

12
Tainter, “Complexity, Problem-Solving, and Sustainable Societies.”

13
Tainter, “Complexity, Problem-Solving, and Sustainable Societies.”

14
Stefan Zweig,
Brazil: A Land of the Future
, trans. Lowell A. Bangerter (Riverside, CA: Ariadne Press, 2000), 70–71. Translated from the German by Lowell A. Bangerter.

15
Nicholas A. Vardy, “Lessons from a 50-Year Career in Global Investing,” NicholasVardy.com, October 13, 2006,
www.nicholasvardy.com/global-guru/articles/lessons-from-a-50-year-career-in-global-investing
.

16
Martin Wolf, “How Likely Is Financial Repression?” Martin Wolf's Exchange (blog), May 24, 2010,
http://blogs.ft.com/martin-wolf-exchange/2010/05/24/how-likely-is-financial-repression/#axzz1nyUh4eD8
.

17
Bob Adams, “The Great Escape,”
Barron's
, November 26, 2011.

18
David Jolly, “For Americans Abroad, Taxes Just Got More Complicated,”
New York Times
, April 15, 2012.

19
Caroline Costello, “The Passport Apllication From Hell: Coming Soon?” Independent Traveler.com, April 25, 2011,
http://www.independenttraveler.com/blog/?p=1792

20
Stephen Constantine, ed.,
Emigrants and Empire: British Settlement in the Dominions between the Wars
(Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1990), 17.

21
Zweig,
Brazil: A Land of the Future
, 149.

22
“Brazil as an Outsourcing Destination,” Brazil Exports IT, November 26, 2008,
http://brasilexportati.com/artigos/brazil-as-an-outsourcing-destinations
.

23
United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

24
For more tales of American immigrants making good in Brazil, see Thomas Omestad, “American Farmers Try Their Luck in Brazil,”
U.S. News & World Report
, June 25, 2008,
www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2008/06/25/american-farmers-try-their-luck-in-brazil
.

25
Mariana Barbosa, Catalina Sousa, and Naomi Westland, “Recession Has Portugal Urging Citizens to Leave to Find Work,”
USA Today
, February 21, 2012, 5A.

26
“Brazil Health Minister Urges More Sex, Dancing,” CBSNews, April 26, 2010,
www.cbsnews.com/2100-204_162-6434221.html
.