Everything Is Obvious (34 page)

Read Everything Is Obvious Online

Authors: Duncan J. Watts

BOOK: Everything Is Obvious
3.32Mb size Format: txt, pdf, ePub
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This book has been in the writing for more than three years, and on my mind for twice as long as that. During that time, I’ve been fortunate to work at some incredible institutions and with many equally impressive people. I’m grateful to all of them, but a few deserve special mention.

First of all, I’m deeply grateful to Yahoo! for providing such a stimulating and supportive research environment over the past three years. It is surprising to many people that a major US corporation in this day and age would choose to invest in a research organization that is dedicated to producing and publishing basic science, and yet that is precisely the mission of Yahoo! Research. Not that our more than 100 research scientists don’t make a significant contribution to the corporate bottom line (note to shareholders—we do). Nevertheless, the freedom and flexibility that we experience—including to write books like this one—is remarkable, and a tribute to the leadership of Prabhakar Raghavan, the founding director. I’m also grateful to Preston McAfee and Ron Brachman for their support and encouragement, and to my colleagues Sharad Goel, Dan Goldstein, Jake Hofman, Sebastien Lahaei, Winter Mason, Dave Pennock, David Reiley, Dan Reeves, and Sid Suri, from whom I have learned so much. I’ve yet to meet a group of people who can be so argumentative and yet so enjoyable to work with.

Prior to joining Yahoo!, I spent several formative years in the sociology department at Columbia University and remain
indebted to them for hiring me in the first place (without a sociology degree), as well as for patiently tolerating my ignorance of sociology and educating me in the discipline. I can’t claim to have become a “real” sociologist, but I’m certainly far more of one than I would have been otherwise. In particular, I’m grateful to Peter Bearman, Jonathan Cole, Michael Crow, Jeffrey Sachs, David Stark, and Harrison White for their support and advice over the years; and to my students and collaborators, Peter Dodds, Gueorgi Kossinets, Roby Muhamad, and Matt Salganik. I’m also grateful to the late Robert K. Merton—a towering figure in the history of Columbia sociology—whose encouragement at an early stage of my career was as inspiring to me as the work he left behind.

During my Columbia years, my research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (SES-0094162 and SES-0339023), the James S. McDonnell Foundation, and Legg Mason Funds, while the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, directed by Peter Bearman, provided valuable administrative support and office space. Without these organizations, much of the research described in this book would have been impossible. Subsequently, I’ve also benefited from visiting appointments at Nuffield College, Oxford, which generously hosted me for a two-month sabbatical in 2007, and the Santa Fe Institute—my intellectual home away from home—where I spent a few weeks per summer in 2008 and 2009. Without these critical breaks from my usual routine, it’s unlikely I would have been able to complete such a long writing project, and I’m grateful to Peter Hedstrom at Nuffield and Geoffrey West and Chris Wood at SFI for their support in arranging these visits.

Finally, I’m grateful to a number of people who have helped me realize this book directly. Roger Scholl, my editor at Crown, proved equally adept both as a cheerleader
and a coach, frequently restoring my enthusiasm during the long slog of editing while also steering me clear of numerous traps of my own making. Suzanne Gluck and Eric Lupfer, my agents at William Morris Endeavor, helped immensely in putting together the original proposal and provided valuable input throughout the writing process. Sharad Goel, Dan Goldstein, Victoria Johnson, Michael Mauboussin, Tom McCarthy, Scott Page, and Chuck Sabel were all generous enough to read early drafts of the book, correcting numerous errors and oversights in the process. And to my friends and family, who tolerated years of whining about “the book,” thanks for your forbearance. I know I haven’t been the best at explaining what all the fuss has been about, but I hope it will be clear now. Maybe even obvious …

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Abe, Sumiyoshi, and Norikuzu Suzuki. 2004. “Scale-free Network of Earthquakes.”
Europhysics Letters
65 (4):581–86.

Abraham, Magid M., and Leonard M. Lodish. 1990. “Getting the Most out of Advertising and Promotion.”
Harvard Business Review
68 (3):50.

Abraham, Magid. 2008. “The Off-line Impact of Online Ads.”
Harvard Business Review
(April):28.

Abramowitz, Alan, and Kyle L. Saunders. 2008. “Is Polarization a Myth?”
Journal of Politics
70 (2):542–55.

Adamic, Lada A., and Eytan Adar. 2005. “How to Search a Social Network.”
Social Networks
27 (3):187–203.

Adar, Eytan, and Lada A. Adamic, 2005. “Tracking Information Epidemics in Blogspace.” Paper read at 2005 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, Sept. 19–22, at Compiègne University of Technology, France.

Adler, Moshe. 1985. “Stardom and Talent.”
American Economic Review
75 (1):208–12.

Alicke, Mark D., and Olesya Govorun. 2005. “The Better-Than-Average Effect.” In
The Self in Social Judgment
, ed. M. D. Alicke, D. A. Dunning, and J. I. Krueger. 85–106.

Alterman, Eric. 2008. “Out of Print: The Death and Life of the American Newspaper.”
The New Yorker
, March 31.

Anderson, Philip W. 1972. “More Is Different.”
Science
177 (4047):393–96.

Andreozzi, Luciano. 2004. “A Note on Paradoxes in Economics.”
Kyklos
57 (1):3–20.

Aral, Sinan, Lev Muchnik, and Arun Sundararajan. 2009. “Distinguishing Influence-Based Contagion from Homophily-Driven Diffusion in Dynamic Networks.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
106 (51):21544–21549.

Arango, Tim. 2010. “How the AOL-Time Warner Merger Went So Wrong.”
New York Times
, Jan. 10.

Arbesman, Sam, and Steven H. Strogatz. 2008. “A Monte Carlo Approach to Joe DiMaggio and Streaks in Baseball.” In
http://arxiv.org/abs/0807.5082
[2008].

Arceneaux, Kevin, and David Nickerson. 2009. “Who Is Mobilized to
Vote? A Re-Analysis of 11 Field Experiments.”
American Journal of Political Science
53 (1):1–16.

Ariely, Dan. 2008.
Predictably Irrational
. New York: HarperCollins.

Ariely, Dan, George Loewenstein, and Drazen Prelec. 2003. “Coherent Arbitrariness: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences.”
Quarterly Journal of Economics
118 (1):73–105.

Ariely, Dan, Uri Gneezy, George Lowenstein, and Nina Mazar. 2009. “Large Stakes and Big Mistakes.”
Review of Economic Studies
, 76(2): 451–469.

Armstrong, J. Scott. 1985. Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer.
New York:
John Wiley.

Arrow, Kenneth J., Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, et al. 2008. “The Promise of Prediction Markets.”
Science
320 (5878):877–78.

Arthur, W. Brian. 1989. “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in by Historical Events.”
Economic Journal
99 (394): 116–31.

Asch, Solomon E. 1953. “Effects of Group Pressure Upon the Modification and Distortion of Judgments.” In
Group Dynamics: Research and Theory
, ed. D. Cartwright and A. Zander. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson and Co.

Ayres, Ian. 2008.
Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
. New York: Bantam.

Baker, George P. 1992. “Incentive Contracts and Performance Measurement.”
Journal of Political Economy
100 (3):598–614.

Baker, Stephen. 2009.
The Numerati
. Boston, MA: Mariner Books.

Bakshy, Eytan, Brian Karrer, and Lada A. Adamic. 2009. “Social Influence and the Diffusion of User-Created Content.” Paper read at 10th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, July 6–10, Stanford, California.

Baldassari, Delia, and Peter S. Bearman. 2007. “Dynamics of Political Polarization.”
American Sociological Review
72 (5):784–811.

Baldassari, Delia, and Andrew Gelman. 2008. “Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion.”
American Journal of Sociology
114 (2):408–46.

Bandiera, Oriana, Iwan Barankay, and Imran Rasul. 2009. “Team Incentives: Evidence from a Field Experiment.” Unpublished manuscript.

Barbera, Robert 2009.
The Cost of Capitalism: Understanding Market Mayhem and Stabilizing Our Economic Future
. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Bargh, John A., and Tanya L. Chartrand. 1999. “The Unbearable Automaticity of Being.”
American Psychologist
54 (7):462–79.

Bargh, John A., Mark Chen, and Lara Burrows. 1996. “Automaticity of Social Behavior: Direct Effects of Trait Construct and Stereotype Activation on Action.”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
71:230–44.

Barnes, Brooks. 2009. “Audiences Laughed to Forget Troubles.”
New York Times
, Dec. 29.

Bass, Frank M. 1969. “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.”
Management Science
15 (5):215–27.

Bassetti, Stefano, Werner E. Bischoff, and Robert J. Sherertz. 2005. “Are SARS Superspreaders Cloud Adults.”
Emerging Infectious Diseases (serial on the Internet)
.

Beck, P. W. 1983.
Forecasts: Opiates for Decision Makers
. UK: Shell.

Becker, Gary S. 1976.
The Economic Approach to Human Behavior
. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Becker, Gary S., and Kevin M. Murphy. 2000.
Social Economics: Market Behavior in a Social Environment
. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

Becker, Howard. 1945. “Interpretive Sociology and Constructive Typology.” In
Twentieth-Century Sociology
, ed. G. Gurvitch and W. E. Moore. New York: Philosophical Library.

Becker, Howard S. 1998.
Tricks of the Trade: How to Think About Your Research While You’re Doing it
. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Bengston, William F., and John W. Hazzard. 1990. “The Assimilation of Sociology in Common Sense: Some Implications for Teaching.”
Teaching Sociology
18 (1):39–45.

Berger, Jonah, and Grinne Fitzsimons. 2008. “Dogs on the Street, Pumas on Your Feet: How Cues in the Environment Influence Product Evaluation and Choice.”
Journal of Marketing Research (JMR)
45 (1):1–14.

Berger, Jonah, and Chip Heath. 2007. “Where Consumers Diverge from Others: Identity Signaling and Product Domains.”
Journal of Consumer Research
34 (2):121–34.

Berger, Peter L., and Thomas Luckman. 1966.
The Social Construction of Reality
. New York: Anchor Books.

Berlin, Isaiah. 1960. “History and Theory: The Concept of Scientific History.”
History and Theory
1 (1):1–31.

Berlin, Isaiah. 1997.
The Proper Study of Mankind: An Anthology of Essays
. London: Chatto and Windus.

Berman, Eli. 2009.
Radical, Religious, and Violent: The New Economics of Terrorism
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Bernard, H. Russell, Eugene C. Johnsen, Peter D. Killworth, and Scott Robinson. 1989. “Estimating the size of an average personal network and of an event population.” In
The Small World
, ed. Manfred Kochen. Norwood, NJ: Ablex Publishing.

———. 1991. “Estimating the Size of an Average Personal Network and of an Event Population: Some Empirical Results.”
Social Science Research
20:109–21.

Bernard, H. Russell, Peter D. Killworth, David Kronenfeld, and Lee Sailer. 1984. “The Problem of Informant Accuracy: The Validity of Retrospective Data.”
Annual Review of Anthropology
13:495–517.

Bernard, Tara S. 2010. “A Toolkit for Women Seeking a Raise.”
New York Times
, May 14.

Berndt, Ernst R. 1991.
The Practice of Econometrics: Classic and Contemporary
. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley.

Bertrand, Marianne, Dean S. Karlan, Sendhil Mullainathan, et al. 2010. “What’s Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment.”
Quarterly Journal of Economics
. 119(2): 353–402.

Bettman, James R., Mary Frances Luce, and John W. Payne. 1998. “Constructive Consumer Choice Processes.”
Journal of Consumer Research
25 (3):187–217.

Bielby, William T., and Denise D. Bielby. 1994. “ ‘All Hits Are Flukes’: Institutionalized Decision Making and the Rhetoric of Network Prime-Time Program Development.”
American Journal of Sociology
99 (5):1287–313.

Bishop, Bill. 2008.
The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart
. New York: Houghton Mifflin.

Bishop, Christopher M. 2006.
Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning
. New York: Springer.

Black, Donald. 1979. “Common Sense in the Sociology of Law.”
American Sociological Review
44 (1):18–27.

Blass, Thomas. 2009.
The Man Who Shocked the World: The Life and Legacy of Stanley Milgram
. New York: PublicAffairs Books.

Bollen, Johan, Alberto Pepe, and Huina Mao. 2009. “Modeling Public Mood and Emotion: Twitter Sentiment and Socio-economic Phenomena.” Arxiv preprint arXiv:0911.1583.

Bond, Sumuel D., Kurt A. Carlson, Margaret G. Meloy, et al. 2007. “Information Distortion in the Evaluation of a Single Option.”
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
102 (2):240–54.

Booher-Jennings, Jennifer. 2005. “Below the Bubble: ‘Educational Triage’ and the Texas Accountability System.”
American Educational Research Journal
42 (2):231–68.

———. 2006. “Rationing Education.”
Washington Post
, Oct. 5.

Boudon, Raymond. 1988a. “Common Sense and the Human Sciences.”
International Sociology
3 (1):1–22.

———. 1988b. “Will Sociology Ever Be a ‘Normal Science?’ ”
Theory and Society
17 (5):747–71.

———. 1998. “Limitations of Rational Choice Theory.”
American Journal of Sociology
104 (3):817–28.

Bowles, Samuel, Ernst Fehr, and Herbert Gintis. 2003. “Strong Reciprocity May Evolve With or Without Group Selection.”
Theoretical Primatology Project Newsletter
, Dec. 11.

Brauers, Jutta, and Martin Weber. 1988. “A New Method of Scenario Analysis for Strategic Planning.”
Journal of Forecasting
7 (1):31–47.

Brill, Steven. 2009. “What’s a Bailed-Out Banker Really Worth?”
New York Times Magazine
, Dec. 29.

———. 2010. “The Teachers’ Unions’ Last Stand.”
New York Times Magazine
(May 23): 32–47.

Brooker, Katrina. 2010. “Citi’s Creator, Alone with His Regrets”
New York Times
, Jan. 2.

Brown, Bernice B. 1968. “Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Michael Schrage. 2009. “The New, Faster Face of Innovation.”
MIT Sloan Management Review
, August.

Buchanan, James. 1989. “Rational Choice Models in the Social Sciences.” In
Explorations into Constitutional Economics
, ed. R. D. Tollison and V. J. Vanberg. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press.

Bumiller, Elisabeth. 2010. “Top Defense Officials Seek to End ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.’ ”
New York Times
, Feb. 2.

Burson-Marsteller. 2001. “The E-fluentials.” New York: Burson-Marsteller.

Cairns, Huntington. 1945. “Sociology and the Social Science.” In
Twentieth-Century Sociology
, ed. G. Gurvitch and W. E. Moore. New York: Philosophical Library.

Camerer, Colin F., George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin. 2003.
Advances in Behavioral Economics
. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Carlson, Jean M., and John Doyle. 2002. “Complexity and Robustness.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
99:2538.

Carter, Bill. 2006.
Desperate Networks
. New York: Doubleday.

Cassidy, John. 2009.
How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities
. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Caves, Richard E. 2000.
Creative Industries: Contracts Between Art and Commerce
. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Chapman, Gretchen B., and Eric J. Johnson. 1994. “The Limits of Anchoring.”
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
7 (4):223–42.

Choi, Hyunyoung, and Hal Varian. 2008.
Predicting the Present with Google Trends
. Available from
http://www.google.com/googleblogs/pdfs/google_predicting_the_present.pdf
.

Christakis, Nicholas A., and James H. Fowler. 2009.
Connected: The Surprising Power of Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives
. New York: Little, Brown.

Cialdini, Robert B. 2001.
Influence: Science and Practice
, 4th ed. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn and Bacon.

Cialdini, Robert B., and Noah Goldstein, J. 2004. “Social Influence: Compliance and Conformity.”
Annual Review of Psychology
55:591–621.

Clark, Kenneth. 1973. “Mona Lisa.”
The Burlington Magazine
115 (840):144–51.

Clauset, Aaron, and Nathan Eagle. 2007. Persistence and Periodicity in a Dynamic Proximity Network in
DIMACS Workshop on Compututional Methods for Dynamic Interaction Networks
.

Clifford, Stephanie. 2009. “Put Ad on Web. Count Clicks. Revise.”
New York Times
, May 30.

———. 2010. “We’ll Make You a Star (if the Web Agrees).”
New York Times
, June 4.

Cohen-Cole, Ethan, and Jason M. Fletcher. 2008a. “Are All Health Outcomes ‘Contagious’? Detecting Implausible Social Network Effects in Acne, Height, and Headaches.” Available at SSRN:
ssrn.count/abstract=133901
.

———. 2008b. “Is Obesity Contagious? Social Networks vs. Environmental Factors in the Obesity Epidemic.”
Journal of Health Economics
27 (5):1382–7.

Cohn, Jonathan. 2007.
Sick: The Untold Story of America’s Health Care Crisis—and the People Who Pay the Price
. New York: HarperCollins.

Other books

Isn't That Rich?: Life Among the 1 Percent by Richard Kirshenbaum, Michael Gross
After the Crash by Michel Bussi
The Bachelor’s Surrender by Janelle Denison
Letting Hearts Heal by Luna Jensen
Mr Mingin by David Walliams
Circling the Drain by Amanda Davis