Lethal Trajectories (29 page)

Wang thought on this before responding. “It is a nightmare situation. Do you think it’s possible to work out a collaborative arrangement with the Americans?”

“If you would have asked me that prior to the Chunxiao Incident,” Lin answered carefully, “my answer would have been an unequivocal no. Much has happened since then to cause me to rethink my position. First, it was a courageous move on the part of President Burkmeister to take an even-handed approach on Chunxiao. He incurred the wrath of Japan and vocal resistance in his own country for doing so. Second, I was impressed with the CIA report, regardless of motivation, and its strong advocacy of a collaborative approach against Mustafa. Third, I felt comfortable with the McCarty brothers and your strong recommendation attesting to their character. Last, the Saudi situation is troubling, and I’m not sure we’d ever be able to work with them. Taken collectively, Peng, the short answer is that we must seriously explore the possibility of a collaborative effort with the United States today.”

“Your conclusions make total sense to me,” Wang said, relief clear in his voice. “The Americans will undoubtedly ask us to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. Is there some way we’d go along with this in exchange for their support on Chunxiao?”

Lin considered the greater geopolitical implications of his question before responding.

“I think Chunxiao is already yesterday’s news,” Lin replied, choosing his words as carefully as though they might become policy on the spot. “I could see it yesterday when we met with different delegations: Saudi Arabia and not Chunxiao was most on their minds. I see no real advantage in breaking diplomatic relations with Israel at this time. There may be cause for doing so later, particularly if they make an unprovoked attack on Saudi Arabia, but for now, there’s little to be gained.”

They continued their walk in silence, pondering the momentous challenges in front of them. Eventually Wang brought up another issue sure to come up that afternoon.

“There’s another issue to discuss, Mr. Chairman, and I know it is of personal concern to you. The recent climate-change data show that an irreversible climate disaster is now in the making. I know of your concerns with our freshwater shortages and loss of arable land to desertification. Might there also be ways to take a more collaborative approach on these issues with the Americans?”

Lin took a moment to shift to this new topic before responding. “The CIA’s report was correct in that the zero-sum approach to geopolitical challenges may be
passé.
While oil is our top priority now, these climate issues are chronic and can’t be solved in a unilateral manner. I know this in my heart, but how do we sell our Politburo on collaboration? Some of them still don’t believe climate-change is a problem. The rest of them, well, the potential benefits of working with the Americans are the last thing on their minds.” Lin breathed deeply, then clapped his hands together, sweeping aside the endless complications of that question for the moment.

“The three questions we need to address today, Peng, are as follows: First, assuming the CIA report accurately represents the situation, is collaboration the most effective pathway to an acceptable solution? Second, if so, what would a collaborative effort with the United States look like? Third, what could each country do to help the other sell such a collaborative paradigm to their respective constituencies?”

Wang nodded as they approached the Main Lodge for their meeting. Lin fell silent again as he tried to visualize what a partnership with the United States would look like, especially in the event of a war of attrition with the Saudi regime. The alternative, he suddenly realized, was not something he wished to contemplate.

W
hat could he be thinking?
Prince Khalid ibn Saud thought as he paced the balcony of his luxuriously appointed chalet. The beautiful view of Lake Geneva failed to quell his outrage at the treachery of Mustafa’s latest broadcast.
He will bring our people to their ultimate destruction
…
and, perhaps, everyone else with him.

His life had changed the moment his private plane touched down at Geneva International Airport. He and his family stepped off not as honored guests, but rather refugees. Shame, guilt, rage, betrayal, and grief for lost friends and family churned in his stomach, competing with an overwhelming feeling of loss for his country and its role as a beacon of stability and moderation in the turbulent Middle East.

He jumped at the sound of a knock on the balcony doors. His aide-de-camp said, “Your staff is assembled for the meeting you requested, Prince Khalid.” Khalid nodded and walked into the adjacent conference room where his three top advisors awaited.

“I’m sure you have all heard Mustafa’s broadcast,” he said angrily, “and I don’t think I need to tell you of the danger we are in. We are a threat to Mustafa’s regime, and his assassins will be looking for us, of that you may be sure.”

Khalid could see the fear in their eyes as he continued. “They may come at us in a number of ways. Most likely they will make our deaths look like an accident; that is, of course, if they don’t want to make an example of me—in which case they would have me or anyone connected with me die slowly as a warning to anyone else they deem a traitor.”

“Prince Khalid,” said his chief financial advisor, “your assets are well protected in Swiss and offshore accounts, and they are of sufficient size to build an entire army of mercenaries.”

“Thank you, my friend,” Khalid replied. “That is exactly what I intend to do. We are well connected in international power circles and have access to the mercenary forces and military hardware we need. I am more concerned, at the moment, with our current security arrangements. We must assume Mustafa will come after us immediately.”

“We are preparing for such an attack, Your Highness,” replied his security advisor. “We have well over a dozen security guards with extensive military training here at the chalet who could fend off anything Mustafa threw at us, and I have initiated efforts to quadruple this force. We think you and your family are safe as long as you remain in the compound, but you will be at grave risk if you leave this facility.”

“So, I’m a prisoner,” Khalid said wryly as he pondered his circumstances. “Let me tell you of a decision I have made: I will not rest until Mustafa and his cabal are hunted down and destroyed like dogs and Saudi Arabia is restored to its former position of power and prosperity. I will use all of my financial resources and international connections to make this happen. Only death will stop me.”

“How do you plan to do this, Prince Khalid?” asked his oil advisor.

“I will call a press conference to expose Mustafa for the monster he is,” Khalid stated, “and I will provide a rallying point for all opposed to his brutal regime. Our plan will develop from there, but this is where we must start.”

The constructive discussion that followed on tactics and strategy pleased Khalid. It gave him a sense of hope he had not felt since the day of Mustafa’s murderous overthrow.

I am not alone,
Khalid realized as the winds of grief quieted inside him.
Many will stand with me against Mustafa’s perfidy.
He would begin at once to prepare for the broadcast that would launch his counteroffensive against Mustafa. His greatest challenge would be to stay alive long enough to make it.

T
he four participants greeted each other warmly as they met in the Main Lodge. Looking more like a group of friends gathering for a festive weekend, they entered their conference room and found a breakfast buffet of Chinese and American cuisine set out on a table only a few feet from a crackling fireplace. The unmistakable rumblings of a thunderstorm could be heard in the distance, and the light rain pelting the paned windows made a soothing soundtrack for the unprecedented meeting about to take place.

“We thank you for arranging this meeting,” Lin Cheng said in almost unaccented English. “We have many issues to discuss, but both Wang Peng and I thought our talks last night were a good start.”

“Thank you, Chairman Lin Cheng, and my good friend, Wang Peng, for meeting with us. You honor us with your presence, and we are so happy to have this opportunity to meet with you in this private setting. Both Jack and I felt last night’s meeting was a success, and we look forward to our discussions today. In the spirit of things, I would feel most comfortable if you would just call me Clayton.”

“It would be my honor, Clayton, and I in turn would be honored if you addressed me by my given name, Cheng.”

Clayton could see Wang Peng was surprised by his boss’s informality. He knew that in China only good friends were invited to use one’s given name; he surmised that very few in China ever addressed Lin Cheng by his given name.
A good first start,
Clayton thought.

“Before we start, Clayton, I wonder if you have heard King Mustafa’s speech, made earlier this morning,” Lin Cheng inquired.

“We got the transcript shortly before this meeting. The Saudis certainly don’t leave any of us—even their OPEC partners—any wiggle room, do they?” Clayton replied.

“No they don’t,” replied Lin Cheng with irritation in his voice. “In fact, it makes me all the more interested in exploring the CIA report you provided and hearing more about the collaborative approach the CIA seemed to suggest.”

For the next three hours they vigorously discussed the CIA report and other collateral issues including climate-change, trade relations, economic policies, and geopolitical issues. With only four opinions to consider, they easily set aside cold war dogma in search of workable solutions that transcended the boundaries of conventional diplomacy.
The collegial dialogue captured,
Clayton thought,
the spirit of what Jack and Peng had hoped to achieve when they first thought up the idea of an informal summit meeting.

As the debate began to repeat itself, Lin Cheng, who seemed to Clayton to be more intent on absorbing information than holding forth on it, offered a summary for the group’s consensus. “It seems to me that we all agree with the CIA report and its contention that oil-based energy is the crux of the Saudi oil crisis. Further, we agree that the crisis revolves around the issues of access and affordability of oil. While it’s possible that the United States and China could find ways to maintain their access to oil in one way or another—most probably by force—the affordability issue is beyond the means of either country to solve unilaterally. It would be even more difficult if one of us aggressively opposed the other. If the Saudi oil supply is kept off the market for any length of time, the demand will so exceed supply that prices will triple and quadruple. This would have a disastrous impact on our respective economies as well the global economy, and we just can’t allow that to happen.”

“Well said, Cheng, I couldn’t agree with you more,” Clayton said. “We really do need both of our countries plus our respective allies to build up the critical mass necessary to overcome the Saudi crisis; I see no other way out. May I ask what you think a collaborative effort might look like?”

“Certainly, Clayton,” Lin said with a smile, seeming to warm to the luxury of a first-name relationship. “We have two major issues that have to be addressed on the way to a partnership. We must first decide how we can best organize our strategic alliance to bring down the Mustafa regime. We would have to pit our collective abilities to live without Saudi oil against their ability to continue without the oil revenues we send them. Second, we would have to sell the deal to our people and convince them of the merits of collaboration. We have been on the opposite ends of a so-called cold war for so long that it will not be easy to explain why we should work together. I’m thinking now of my own Politburo, and I suspect Congress will be an issue for you, Clayton.”

Clayton nodded, happy to have someone who understood the exact nature of the challenges he faced.

At about 12:45, Clayton checked his watch and observed that the rain had let up. With the four participants more hungry for solutions than food, he proposed a course of action that everyone agreed was a good one.

“Let’s break into two groups for the next hour,” he suggested. “Cheng and I will go for a walk, and Peng and Jack will put their heads together to synthesize everything we’ve discussed. Then, after an hour, let’s have a working lunch and go over what we have.”

Cheng and Clayton headed down a Camp David pathway, umbrellas in hand, to discuss the mutual challenges they faced and to trade family stories and anecdotes about world leaders—just about any topic but the Saudi crisis. It was not a manufactured conversation or relationship; each enjoyed the other’s company and the mutual respect and trust building between them.

Peng and Jack concentrated strictly on the Saudi situation and synthesizing over three hours’ worth of intense discussion into a handful of digestible bullet points that would become the blueprint for a new era in international relationships.

They finished their assignment just as the two world leaders came in from their walk. After they had all helped themselves to the inviting spread of cold cuts, vegetables, and a tureen of spicy noodle soup displayed on the table, Clayton asked Peng and Jack to present the summary they had put together.

“Glad to, Clayton,” Jack responded, “but we ask that you and Lin Cheng hold your comments until we’ve covered the five points we’ve prepared.”

Cheng and Clayton agreed, and Peng handed out copies of the summary before starting at the top.

“First, the Saudi oil crisis over access to and affordability of oil is a global problem requiring the collaborative efforts of the United States and China, and their allies (herein called Allied Forces), acting in concert against the Saudis.

“Second, the Allied Forces will agree on a strategic oil protocol, with no side deals, that treats oil as a
pooled global asset
subject to rationing. Rationing will be based on previous usage and incorporate reductions correspondent with the global availability of oil.