Lethal Trajectories (30 page)

“Third, the new strategic alliance will require a joint command structure that establishes common goals, metrics, enforcement procedures, allocation of resources, and a process for resource sharing where needed. It will also include joint military exercises to coordinate planning and leverage military assets to maximum advantage.

“Fourth, China and the United States will use their influence to mitigate existing situations that might impede efforts against the Saudis. This would include a) strong American support for a moratorium on the Chunxiao Incident, b) China’s continued recognition of Israel, c) support for a modified petrodollar oil transaction system with an American commitment to safeguard the value of its dollar through more robust fiscal and monetary policies, d) resource sharing, where needed, between member nations of the Allied Forces, and e) joint support for new EEZ policies regarding the definitions of territorial waters.

“Fifth and finally, China and the United States will work with their respective allies and domestic constituencies to promote a collaborative approach toward resolving the crisis. If successful, such approaches should be adopted beyond the crisis period to address climate-change and other challenges requiring broad global support.”

Impressed, Cheng and Clayton thanked their aides. Over the next two hours they clarified every point and what it would entail in terms of internal and international negotiations. There was no question that it would be difficult to sell, but an alliance offered the only real hope of resolving the Saudi crisis.

“In a perfect world,” Clayton said almost to himself, “I’d go public with this plan shortly after I was sworn in as president. I would present it to a joint session of Congress and then make the case to the American people and our allies that despite past differences with China, this alliance is the only way out. Cheng, do you have any idea about timing on your side of things?”

There was a long silence as Lin Cheng pondered the prospect of making the sale to his Politburo. Finally, he said, “In many ways, Mustafa has done us a huge favor by threatening to cut off China’s supply of oil along with that of the United States. Mustafa has forced our two countries into the same boat. I will start there with the Politburo. But I will need a few quick successes with the United States to show the immediate benefits. An obvious starting point is Chunxiao and the EEZ border dispute.

“You would take a few hits in agreeing to support China in those disputes, Clayton, but we could help you by publicly stating our intent to work with the UN to resolve the situation with Japan. And we will maintain diplomatic relationships with Israel and urge other countries in our sphere of influence to do the same. Joint meetings between our military and top diplomatic leaders would help solidify the effort, and I would most cordially invite you to address our Politburo and the Chinese people in a national broadcast if this would help.”

Clayton smiled, deeply impressed by Lin Cheng’s offer of support.

“I’d be willing to take the hit with Japan and support China’s position on the Chunxiao matter—at the least, I would request a moratorium on the entire issue until the broader Saudi crisis was resolved—and we’d also support your definition of territorial waters. The latter would clarify your future rights with Japan and perhaps ours in the polar region as well. Any idea when we might crank this up, Cheng? I’m anxious to get this started. The Saudi crisis will shape every event in the global arena.”

“I can’t promise that it will work, Clayton, but I give you my word that I will do everything in my power to make it happen. I will depart for China today and schedule a meeting with the Politburo Standing Committee no later than Monday. I’ll keep you posted on our progress, but that’s the best I can do for now.”

“It is appreciated, Cheng, and you can rest assured I’ll do everything in my power to make this happen. Would it make sense, from a process perspective, to have Wang Peng and Jack be the lead representatives on the development of our strategic alliance? I ask because you and I will be heavily engaged in selling our foreign and domestic constituencies on the plan.”

“It makes sense to me, Clayton. No two people in our governments respect each other more or can act in better collaboration than Peng and Jack. Yes, I think this would be a very good idea.” Jack winked at Clayton as if to say,
Let’s get it on.

It was almost four o’clock in the afternoon when they said their good-byes at the helipad. It was a solemn departure, colored by the knowledge that they all had their work cut out for them.

Clayton and Jack took the long way back to the lodge to pack up and head home. The challenges they faced were daunting, and the clock was ticking. Worse, formidable forces were now building—domestically and internationally—that would do anything to counter their work.

S
unday-morning traffic in Washington was light as Clayton McCarty’s limo headed toward the White House for his ten o’clock appointment with the president. His telephone conversation with Burkmeister the previous night had been brief, and he struggled now with how he could best covey the events of the extraordinary meeting at Camp David. He was all but overwhelmed by the work to be done in such a compressed timeframe, but the president was sure to provide a welcome reality check.

Clayton winced as he entered the Oval Office, startled by the president’s haggard appearance.
It must have been a rough weekend,
Clayton surmised as he greeted Burkmeister with all the cheer he could muster.

“Good morning, Mr. President. How are you feeling today, sir?”

“I guess as well as could be expected under the circumstances, Clayton,” Burkmeister said from his desk chair. Clayton stifled a sigh—normally the president would have risen to shake his hand, but he probably needed to save that energy. “Please, have a seat and tell me about your meeting at Camp David.”

No small talk today,
Clayton thought. It was astonishing how rapidly the cancer was sapping the life and energy out of the president.

“It went better than we could have possibly hoped, Mr. President, and I have a lot of things to lay on you. But before I do, Lin Cheng sends his best wishes to you. He told me of his high regard for you and how appreciative he was of your balanced and judicious position on Chunxiao.”

“Glad to hear that. Between my conversations with Prime Minister Sato Itsuki on how we were mistreating the Japanese and another unpleasant conversation with Prime Minister Nachum demanding we give Israel things we’re not in a position to give, it’s nice to hear a kind word.”

“I’m anxious to hear about your weekend, Mr. President. Do you want me to go first?”

“Go ahead, Clayton, my information can wait.”

Clayton related the details of the meeting and handed Burkmeister the one-page summary Jack and Peng had prepared. The president read it carefully, pondering his concerns before responding.

“Overall, I like the collaborative approach you are suggesting with China. I agree that we’ll need coordinated critical mass to defeat the Saudis, but the devil is in the details.”

“I wouldn’t argue with that, Mr. President. Neither Lin Cheng nor I have illusions about the challenges this plan will present. In fact, we’re looking at it as more of a statement of principles than a formal plan. Lin Cheng was quite candid in acknowledging the battle he would have with his Politburo and opined that we would probably have similar challenges with Congress as well as vehement opposition to any form of détente from the more vocal extremists.”

“Well, I’m glad to hear he’s sensitive to our situation,” Burkmeister responded. “It seems like so many of our counterparts think all the president has to do is wave a wand and Congress will automatically jump. Huh—if they only knew! Do you think he can sell it to the Politburo?”

“He plays his cards close to the vest, Mr. President, but I doubt he would even consider bringing the plan to them if he didn’t think he had a reasonable shot at selling it. I pressed him, but all he said was he’d do his best to get an agreement but make no promises.”

“Did he give you any inkling of when he might know?”

“He will present it to the Politburo on Monday. He promised to keep us informed along the way, but he gave no definite timeframe. And timing will make or break the deal.”

“This global oil rationing idea is interesting, but fraught with problems,” Burkmeister said, shaking his head. “Do you really think we can pull it off, given the magnitude of the task? We might be perceived as abdicating our energy rights to others. Collingsworth and his bunch will have a field day with it.”

“Under normal circumstances, no, absolutely not, Mr. President; we couldn’t have pulled it off a few months ago. But these are not normal times. The Saudis have already taken close to 20 percent of the world’s oil supply off the market and are threatening every economy in the world. We have little choice but to find collaborators to resist them, and that will require give and take. We’ve never had such a compelling imperative before.”

“I agree with your logic, Clayton, but this will have to be presented to the American people in the clearest of terms. It’s reminiscent of Winston Churchill’s clarion call during the darkest days of World War II, when he promised his people nothing but ‘blood, sweat, and tears,’ or something to that effect.”

“Exactly Mr. President, there’s no way we can sugarcoat the crisis and still expect the American people to take the draconian measures required to resolve it. I will tell them the truth, and my guess is they’ll respond favorably once they understand the deal.”

Nodding in agreement, Burkmeister said, “This so-called joint command structure will be a critical part of the entire plan. I also like the idea of Jack and this Wang Peng fellow heading up the effort, because it’s going to take good people with immediate access to power to pull it off. How long do we need to get this set up?”

“Perfection will be the enemy of progress, Mr. President. In this case, we need about two weeks and an agreement to muddle along as we create the plan on the run—changing a tire on the proverbial moving car. Not an ideal situation, to be sure, but amazing things can happen when your back’s against the wall. We’re facing what’s darn near a doomsday scenario, as is China, and my guess is, together, we can make it work. We don’t really have a choice.”

The president reached over to pour a cup of decaf coffee and grimaced with the pain of the movement. He waved Clayton off and continued, “We’ll have trouble with Japan and others who might think we’re capitulating to the Chinese. The Japanese will say we’re caving on the Chunxiao Incident, and they will be equally angry at our favoring the Chinese definition of an EEZ. On the other hand, China’s willingness to support Israel will help calm some of the domestic opposition we’ll get. As for the overall collaborative approach, it goes against the conventional wisdom that has long defined success only in terms of winners and losers. If your proposals work, the United States and China will both win
and
lose—no easy, black-and-white answers. Can we sell this idea to the policy wonks?”

“I don’t believe we’ll ever get complete unanimity on it, Mr. President, but I think by making it clear that the alternatives are catastrophic, we can make our case. We’ll hold anyone opposing the plan accountable for a countersolution. It’ll take a little time to gain traction, but as folks think about the alternatives it’ll start to make more sense.”

The president pushed hard against the back of his chair, trying, it seemed, to get comfortable. Then, regrouping, he said, “It’s unlike any situation we’ve ever faced before, and I suspect most folks will have difficulty getting their heads around it. There won’t be much time for rumination.”

Clayton nodded and asked, “All in all, is it a plan you can support, Mr. President? Or have I overstepped my boundaries or the bounds of realistic expectation?”

“It’ll be a challenge, but yes, I do support your plan. In the final analysis, it’s your call to make, so the important question is, are you ready to put your entire presidency on the line to make it happen? Personally, I’m getting more comfortable with it. But I deeply regret that I’m leaving you with such a mess.”

“Thank you, Mr. President, that means a lot to me,” Clayton said, moved by more than Burkmeister’s vote of confidence. “But I see no other choice. The CIA report was spot on in saying we will not be able to bull our way through the Saudi crisis with military force. I do believe the asymmetric approach, while difficult to put together, offers the best hope of success.”

“I’d agree with that. We’ll just have to make the best case we can to the American people and trust their judgment.”

“This raises another issue, Mr. President, and I’d welcome your insights on it.”

Burkmeister nodded.

“The Saudi oil crisis is the most acute challenge we face, but we have at least two others of a more chronic nature that are tied to the oil situation. The first is the dire economic straits we’re facing in the form of endless deficits and the entitlement obligations we’re straining to meet. I know you’re planning to address this in your January State of the Union address, but ….”

Clayton stopped, embarrassed by his faux pas.

“That’s okay, Clayton,” the president interjected, sensing his replacement’s uneasiness, “I’m pleased you’re willing to take on the economic battle. What’s the other issue?”

“Thank you, Mr. President. The second issue is climate-change. Pete Canton sent me a summary of the latest satellite information, and the climate-change trajectories are alarming. It’s clear that we’ve reached a tipping point where deterioration can’t be stopped, and we can now expect to see more pronounced consequences in the form of reduced agricultural production, droughts, loss of coastal land to rising oceans, and life-endangering weather events. It’s not too late to slow the rate of change, but it will take drastic changes to do so, and we’ll not be able to reverse it.”