Riding the Red Horse (9 page)

“All right. Don't hurt her! I'll do what you want.”

“Swear it,” David demanded.

“I swear,” he lied.

“Swear it by your Christian god!”

“I swear it, damn you,” he hissed. “I swear it by God! I swear it by everything!”

David relaxed and nodded in a friendly manner. “Very good, Colonel. Very wise. You shall hear from us in time.”

“How will I know it is you?”

David flashed his white teeth again, leaving James with no doubt who was the predator and who was the prey. “Oh, you will know, Colonel. Have no fear. You will know. But I warn you, do not listen to Shaitan's whispers, do not be tempted into thinking you can fool us.”

“It's not going to work!” James protested.

“Of course it will work, Colonel James. You wish to kill terrorists, do you not? We will give you your terrorists on a silver plate. They will be bad men, very bad men, exactly the sort of men you are already seeking to kill. And what is the enemy of one's enemy, but a friend?”

“Friends don't threaten their friend's families!”

“If you do as you should, your family will come to no harm at all.” David's eyes narrowed and grew cold. “But when tomorrow comes and you wake with your wife sleeping soundly beside you, when you begin to think of this moment as nothing more than a bad dream, when you think to confess everything to your superiors and hide behind the walls and guns of the U.S. military, remember who picked you up at your home in the morning and who drove you back again at night. Remember what uniform he wore. We are everywhere, Colonel. We are in your bases and in your homes and in your schools, and there is nowhere you can hide that we cannot reach.”

He indicated Hernandez. “When we leave this parking lot, Miguel Hernandez will cease to exist. But there will be other Miguels, here, in Nevada, and in every place you go after that.”

“You know about Nevada?”

“Of course, Colonel. You are a precious asset to us. You are the sword with which we will smite our enemies. Your every breath is of great interest to us.” With that, David snapped the tablet cover shut, and beckoned to Hernandez, or whatever his name truly was. “So keep your mouth shut and do your job, Colonel, and all will be well with you and yours. Peace be upon you.”

He got into the passenger seat of the white car and the driver started the engine. As he walked past James, Mike Hernandez flipped him an ironic salute. “Keys are in the ignition, Colonel. You made the right call. Enjoy your evening with Mrs. James. She's a nice lady.”

“Damn you, Mike! You can't think you'll get away with this!” James couldn't help himself.

Hernandez paused as he opened the rear door. “I already have, Colonel. By the time you can get anyone at the FBI or the CIA to take you seriously, I'll be out of the country for good. Mike Hernandez doesn't exist. He never did.”

He got into the back seat, slammed the door, and James watched in despair as the white Ford Fusion drive away.

“Are you all right, honey? You look as if you've seen a ghost!”

James didn't say anything. He took her in his arms and held her tightly, inhaling her sweet, familiar scent. How was it possible that he might have lost her not half an hour ago? But she was alive and that was all that mattered. Tomorrow he would think about his options. Tomorrow he would decide what he should do. He'd agreed to do as the bastards demanded, but no forced vow could ever be considered binding. Tonight, however, he was not going to think about anything, tonight he was simply going to be grateful that his family was alive and unharmed.

“Hey, let me go,” she complained. “I've got to get another batch out of the oven. Don't take more than two, Michaela is bringing them to a gymnastics party tonight. Oh, and by the way, she said she has something for you.”

He felt as if his blood had suddenly turned to ice. “She did? From who?”

“A note from one of her teachers, I think.” She pointed to the counter. “I don't know, open it and see. It's right there.”

It was a little cream envelope. 'Colonel Ronald James, USAF' was written on it in a neat female hand.

And James knew there would be no escaping them. Not here, not in Nevada, not anywhere.

The enemy was here. The enemy was hiding in plain sight all around them. The enemy was in the neighborhoods, the schools, the airports, the fast food restaurants, and the shopping malls, and he could no more hide from them than al-Muhajir and al-Ansari had been able to hide from the MQ-13 Grimm soaring silently through the cloudless sky above them.

He slipped the envelope into his pocket.

“What was it, honey?”

“Nothing much,” he said. “I'll take care of it tomorrow.”

James Dunnigan is one of the most important individuals in the history of wargaming and is probably THE most important figure in modern wargames. After a three-year term in the U.S. Army with the 3/81st artillery, he designed three wargames for Avalon Hill:
Jutland
,
1914
, and
Panzerblitz
, all classics, all superb, and none really out of date, even if out of print. No wargame is truly out of date if one can still learn from it.

In 1969, he founded Strategic Publications, Inc, the legendary SPI, which published classic wargames such as
War of the Ring
,
Napoleon at Waterloo
,
Sniper!
,
Conquistador
,
Freedom in the Galaxy
, and
The Creature that Ate Sheboygan
. He designed one of the first multiplayer online games,
The Hundred Years War
, and is the author of several books, including
How to Make War
and
The Complete Wargames Handbook
. He has designed over 100 wargames and conflict simulations, including the monster-scale wargame
War in Europe
. He is the chief editor of StrategyPage and lectures regularly at military and academic institutions.

In the following piece, Jim explains “Murphy’s Law: The Top Ten Bad Decisions of the Twentieth Century”. Some of them may surprise you, others will seem obvious, but all are real doozies. Interestingly enough, however, most of those bad decisions don’t actually violate the principles of war, suggesting that there are some principles out there yet to be discovered.

War brings out the worst in people, especially when it comes to making really bad decisions that have horrendous consequences. Below are the ten worst wartime decisions of the 20th century.

1. Germany gives Austria-Hungary free hand in 1914.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire was falling apart in 1914. The assassination of the Austrian crown prince in 1914 by a Serb nationalist gave Austrian hard-liners an opportunity to crack down on Slav dissidents in the Balkans. But this meant threatening war in the Balkans. That could bring in the Russians. Cooler heads suggested that Germany be consulted. The Germans told the Austrians to do what they thought best, and that Germany would back them up. This was a popular decision in Germany, where there was sympathy for the Austrians (who, while Germanic, were a minority in their own empire). The Austrian bluff didn't work, the Serbs fought, and the Russians came to the aid of the Serbs. The French honored their treaty with Russia and went to war as well. What began as an assassination turned into World War I. That, in turn, led to World War II. All because Germany would not say "no" to Austria's desire to start a war over an assassination.

2. Germany declares unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917.

Once engaged in the Great War, Germany slowly, but irresistibly, began to win. One minor problem was its submarine war against British shipping from North America. The United States was neutral in the war, and American popular opinion was very much against getting involved. Germany, aware of American public opinion, tried to avoid torpedoing ships carrying Americans. This was difficult, so in 1917 Germany decided to make things a little easier for German submarine captains by allowing them to sink anything they came across. This led to German subs sinking ships with a lot of Americans on board. That was enough to get America into the war, and prevented Germany from winning World War I.

3. The victorious allies impose harsh terms on Germany after World War I.

The harsh terms imposed on Germany created the economic and political atmosphere that enabled the Nazis to come to power. It was the same kind of harsh treatment of the French by the Germans after the 1870 war that helped cause World War I. This pattern was finally noted after World War II and a more practical approach adopted. In the 1920s German politicians allowed petty feuds and a desire for political revenge to make it possible for Adolf Hitler to take power in 1933. None of the mighty politicians, generals and business leaders thought a petty operator like Hitler could hold onto power even after he got it. They were wrong.

4. Stalin signs a non-aggression treaty with Germany in August 1939.

Stalin thought the 1939 treaty would keep Germany at bay until Russia could launch its own mighty offensive in 1943. Germany attacked first, in June of 1941. The Russians weren't ready and took a major beating with 30 million dead. Russia almost lost the war.

5. Germany declares war on the United States.

In December 1941, Germany had Russia and Britain on the ropes. The Japanese attack brought America into the war, but only against Japan. German armies were stalled in front of Moscow and Hitler thought Japan needed a little nudge to attack Russia. This would tie down troops that would otherwise be sent against the Germans. But Japan had fought border battles with the Russians in 1939 and came off very poorly. Hitler failed to note this. When Hitler declared war against America on December 11, 1941, Japan did nothing, and it took a while for Hitler to realize what had happened to Germany when American entered World War I. Hitler had always belittled the Americans and did not realize his error until it was too late.

6. The Chinese government attacks the communists.

The Nationalist government of China attacked the Chinese communists right after Japan surrendered in August 1945. They underestimated the communists, who then proceeded to defeat all the Nationalist armies in about three years of fighting. The nationalists took a big gamble, sending their best troops into Manchuria in late 1945 to try to knock out the communists. This ignored the well-known fact that a huge Russian army had just defeated Japanese forces in Manchuria and the Russians communists were giving their Chinese counterparts huge quantities of military supplies. Had the nationalists been more prudent they would not have lost South China, and the war, by 1948. Had the civil war gone on longer, American aid might have delayed or prevented the communist takeover of the entire country.

7. President Johnson sends U.S. combat units to Vietnam in 1965.

Despite the experience of the French and President Eisenhower's earlier refusal to get involved, Johnson ignored dire reports from the CIA and instead reacted to possible charges of being "soft on communism." As a result, 58,000 Americans died (as well as over a million Asians), the economy was damaged for more than a decade and the U. S. lost a potential ally in Southeast Asia. Johnson also failed to note that the Vietnamese had never gotten along with the Chinese; four years after conquering South Vietnam in 1975, they were at war with China. That conflict was brief, but Vietnam's relations with China have been frosty ever since, as they had been for centuries before.

8. The Arab states go to war with Israel in 1967.

Syria lost the Golan Heights, Egypt lost use of the Suez Canal and Jordan lost Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israel gained a festering sore that won't go away and the Arabs developed the use of oil as a weapon.

9. The Soviet Union adopts perestroika and glasnost.

In 1985, Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev adopted the policies of
perestroika
(restructuring) and
glasnost
(openness). His predecessors agreed in 1982 that the centrally planned Soviet economy was a failure. But what to do? Ignoring the Chinese success at freeing up the economy while retaining political control, Gorbachev messed with the political system first. Big mistake. The Soviet Union fell apart, as did the already fragile Soviet economy. Russia became a dangerous basket case. But at least the Cold War was over.

10. Playing down the Islamic terrorist threat.

Islamic terrorism is an ancient and recurring threat. Despite signs in the 1970s that another upsurge was coming, it became popular in Western diplomatic and academic circles to play down this threat. This happened despite a serious outbreak of Islamic terrorism in Saudi Arabia in the late 1970s involving heavily armed Islamic terrorists seizing control of some of the holiest places in Islam. In the West this was dismissed as an isolated event. Similar excuses were created to explain the growing number of Islamic terrorist incidents for the rest of the decade. For many, the self-deception continues and so does the terrorist violence.

If Robert Heinlein, with his
Starship Troopers
, is the father of military science fiction, then Jerry Pournelle is surely the godfather.

When I think of the authors in this volume I think of Napoleon's Guard: The Young Guard, the Middle Guard, and—elite among the elite—the Old Guard. The Young Guard includes people like Brad Torgerson, Steve Rzasa, Wolfgang Diehr, Rolf Nelson, Giuseppe Filloto, and Chris Nuttall. The Middle Guard? I suppose that would be Vox and me, Chris Kennedy and Tom Mays, along with Tedd Roberts and ESR. But the Old Guard, the grognards? It is in the nature of the thing that there can't be that many of them, but at the head of those ranks, flanked by John Carr and Jim Dunnigan, marches Dr. Jerry Pournelle.