Shattered Bone (22 page)

5-) The Russian Ambassador to the United States, Evgenii Penza Yaroslavl, was recalled for consultation early this morning. He has refused to leave his post and return to Russia. Fedotov has just announced Yaroslavl's dismissal and will name his replacement by early this afternoon.

6-) Once again, president Fedotov has refused the offer of both the United States and the United Nations to act as mediators in his dispute with the Ukraine. In addition, he has warned the Polish and French peacekeeping units that are presently along the Ukrainian border to leave the theater, or be considered hostile combatants. As of this writing (2100 Zulu, 1600 Local EST), Fedotov has ignored all attempts at communication, through both the American Ambassador to Russia as well as the newly established Direct Military Communication Lines (DMCL).

7-) The Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States has once again asked for guarantees of protection under the “Friends of NATO” agreement. He has also asked the United Nations Security Council to authorize pre-emptive air strikes against the Russian short-range nuclear missile sites, as well as their artillery and rocket positions along the Ukrainian border.

8-) REFORGER (preparations for the Defense of Allies in Europe) has begun. Air Force assets, including five fighter wings and three ground attack squadrons, are currently deploying to their forward operating locations in Germany, Italy, and England. The New Rapid Deployment Force (NRDF), as well as five regular army divisions are also enroute to the European theatre. All military family members and dependents living within any areas considered as “probable of action” have been ordered home. Civilian airline carriers are augmenting the evacuation of dependents from the zone.

ANALYSES:

1-) We expect the Russian forces to move across the Ukrainian border within the next 24-48 hours. The ground invasion will be preceded by an intensive air and artillery campaign to soften the Ukrainian defensive positions. This campaign could begin within the next twelve hours.

In the long run, Russian military forces are strong enough to defeat the Ukrainian forces, although victory is not necessarily guaranteed. DIA estimates indicate Fedotov could have control of the nation's major cities and military installations within 30-45 days, if he is willing to commit to an aggressive frontal assault. Estimated losses to Russian forces under such a scenario are in the range of 25-32%. (See DIA analysis 95-0914:45.)

2-) Fedotov is clearly considering the nuclear option as a way of retaining his forces. A quick, surgical nuclear strike against selected Ukrainian targets and troop positions may be the only way he can reduce his combat casualties to an acceptable level. The refueling and forward deployment of his SS-25s provide him with the short-range capability for just such an attack. If, as we speculate, Fedotov intends to initiate hostilities against the former Warsaw Pact nations, then the nuclear option may be the only way to retain his forces for such a western campaign.

3-) The Black Hogs and their associated light rifle divisions are slated against the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. The Black Sea fleet has always been a thorn of contention between the Ukraine and Russia. After four years of intense negotiations, the two countries came up with what would seem to be a completely unworkable agreement. The treaty that was signed last spring not only invited future disagreements, it guaranteed them. We anticipate that the airborne Black Hogs will initiate their attack at Sevastopol and have control of the port city and the Black Sea fleet within seven to ten days of landing. They would then be in a position to push to the northeast, pinching the Ukrainian forces in a piercing maneuver.

4-) The nuclear breakout with the SS-18 and SS-24 missiles was clearly designed to send a message to the West. By bringing the long range SS-18/SS-24 missiles back on line, President Fedotov has given himself a long-range, precision-attack option against targets in the United States and western Europe that was unavailable to him before.

5-) The small peacekeeping forces that are in position to monitor the border between the Ukraine and Russia will not act as a deterrent against a Russian invasion.

6-) The dismissal of the Russian Ambassador and Fedotov's quick action to replace him indicates an ever widening gulf between Fedotov's right wing government and the small number of moderates who managed to survive Fedotov's purge. With Yaroslavl's departure, president Fedotov has silenced the last strong voice of moderation within the Kremlin.

7-) Although Fedotov's claim that the Ukraine is trying to starve the Russian people has zero credibility, the argument has not surprisingly, been embraced by some world nations. Most notably, the North Koreans have offered to ship the Russians rice in exchange for nuclear materials to make additional weapons. China has also tendered offers of trade, as have Iraq, Iran, India, and Japan.

CONCLUSION:

President Fedotov is about to invade the Ukraine. He has made clear his intention to rebuild the former Soviet Union, and we expect that the southern republics will be next, followed closely by the Baltics and then Moldavia and Belorussia.

Fedotov is not intimidated by the West. He sees the conflict between Russia and the near-far republics as a purely internal affair, one in which neither the United States, nor any western country, has any interest or right to interfere. He is betting his future, as well as his military forces', that the U.S. is not willing to become involved in a long and bloody conflict in order to defend a former Russian republic.

That he would consider a limited nuclear strike to preserve his forces is a possibility that must be taken seriously.

In addition, we must seriously consider his apparent willingness to engage in a major East/West nuclear exchange in order to keep western forces at bay. Judging by what we have seen, Fedotov means what he says and doesn't play games.

The current national isolationist mood in which we find ourselves, plus the lack of any historic, cultural, or economic ties to the Ukraine, leave us very little room in which to operate. It would be politically impossible for the United States to intervene directly in a conventional battle. Military action would certainly lack any public support. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have voiced their strong opposition to committing any U.S. forces to an area of little national interest. In addition, they have determined that as many as 600,000 troops would be required to assist the Ukraine in any meaningful way.

And should Fedotov exercise the nuclear option, the above arguments against interference are not eroded, but rather strengthened, for the question then becomes, do we risk geothermal nuclear war to avenge the Ukraine against a limited nuclear strike?

Given the current situation, it is my opinion that there is little we can do to stop the invasion of the Ukraine, and instead, we should continue to focus our efforts on protecting our allies in central and western Europe.

Thomas Allen read through the report once, then turned back to reread the analysis and conclusion. Laying the report by his side, he slumped back in his chair, shoulders sagging, his face taut and strained, his eyes bloodshot, a heavy stubble spread across his even chin. The President remained silent for a very long time, his eyes cast downward as he studied the pattern in the dark blue rug that covered the Oval Office floor.

“Do you really believe Fedotov might go nuclear on this thing?” he finally asked.

Milton Blake's eyes wandered uncomfortably around the room before fixing on the President's desk. He shifted anxiously in his chair and cocked his head to one side as he considered. “Sir, I really don't know. I don't think anyone knows, perhaps not even Fedotov himself. But I will tell you this—it is my gut feeling after watching the man, that if there were any national leader in the past fifty years who seemed willing to use nuclear weapons, Fedotov is that man.”

The President grunted and looked at the floor.

“Well then, let's get the remainder of the National Security team in here.” The other members had been gathering outside the Oval Office while the President and the National Security Advisor completed their private conference. Blake immediately stood up to open the door.

Three hours later, the United States military was taken to DEFCON BRAVO and its enormous war machine was slipped into high gear. REFORGER was doubled in pace. Across Europe, combat aircraft were put on alert. Reconnaissance aircraft began a constant watch of Eastern Europe. In the United States, B-1 and B-52 bombers were loaded with weapons and pre-positioned to the end of their run-ways. KC-135 and KC-IO air refuelers were loaded with thousands of tons of jet fuel and also put on alert. ICBM missile crews were advised of the DEFCON BRAVO. The space shuttle Endeavor was quietly loaded with a top-secret payload, and her launch date moved up by two weeks. Five Typhoon-class nuclear missile carrying submarines and four aircraft carriers left their port in Norfolk, Virginia, and began to make their way across the Atlantic. The subs set their course to the northeast, toward the Arctic; the carriers steamed on a more eastwardly heading as they sailed toward the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. The U.S. Sixth Fleet, based in Naples, sent out two dozen of her own warships to help escort the carrier groups. Meanwhile, back in Philadelphia, tens of thousands of Army and Marine soldiers began to climb aboard the cavernous transports that would take them overseas.

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McCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE, KANSAS

L
T
C
OLONEL
T
RUMAN
S
MITH CLIMBED INTO HIS DARK BLUE
A
IR
F
ORCE
staff car and set out for the flightline. He pulled through the restricted area gates and out onto the aircraft parking area. His squadron was about to launch a four-ship formation of B-1s on their way to England for a three-week deployment, and Smith wanted to watch them take off. He pulled his government car out and onto the taxiway and parked on the soft grass that lined it. He was only about forty feet from where the B-1s would taxi by. As he slowed his car to a stop, a security police van immediately pulled up beside him. The two cops eyed Smith suspiciously, then one of them noticed the flightline badge that was hanging from his rearview mirror which authorized Smith to drive his government car anywhere on the flightline. When the cops were satisfied that he wasn't out of order, they gave a quick salute then drove on.

Just then, Smith could see his Thunders begin to pull out of their parking spots. The leader of the formation pulled out first, followed quickly by each of the other three aircraft in the formation. Smith watched the horizontal stabilizer and rudder hinges move on each aircraft as the pilots did a final flight control check. As the B-1 s moved closer to where Smith was parked, he could see the pilots through the thick, brown-tinted windscreens. He gave each pilot a thumbs up, but none of them noticed him as they taxied by.

It only took the B-1s five minutes to taxi to the end of the runway and complete their final take off checks. Truman Smith switched his brick over to the control tower frequency so that he could listen to the formation as they took off, turning to the frequency just as the flight was checking in.

“Thunder Flight, check,” lead said over the radio.

“Two.”

“Three.”

“Four.”

All of the aircraft in the formation responded with only their number, each of the pilot's voices sounding short and crisp over the radio. That was all flight lead had expected to hear. By responding with only their number, they were telling their leader they were ready to go.

“Tower, Thunder Flight is number one holding short of the runway, ready to go,” flight lead broadcast over the radio to McConnell tower.

“Thunder Flight, fly runway heading, climb and maintain the block four thousand to five thousand, you're cleared for take off, change to departure,” the tower controller replied.

“Thunder Flight is cleared for take off. Thunders push button three,” lead called back. By telling his flight to “push button three,” lead had directed them to change their radios over to departure frequency. Lt Colonel Smith switched his radio at the same time.

Flight lead would now have to check in his flight over the new radio frequency. He would want to make certain that all of the Bones in his flight were talking on the same channel. It wouldn't do to have them scattered all over the radio spectrum, unable to communicate with each other.

“Thunder Flight, check,” lead said simply.

“Two.”

“Three.”

“Four.”

The other Bones came back quickly. It wasn't until then that the lead B-1 began to taxi out onto the runway. He turned and aligned his aircraft with the runway, then pushed all four of his throttles up into full afterburner. Behind the engines, a light blue flame sprouted and then grew, extending back almost to the B-1's tail. The four GE-101 engines let out an incredible roar as enormous volumes of air were sucked into the engines. Spinning vertices, like miniature tornadoes, funneled out and in front of the huge air intakes and danced along the ground in front of the engines. The tiny tornadoes packed enough power to lift a man and suck him into the engine in less than a fraction of a second. It had happened before. Several years before, some maintenance guy had wandered too close to the engines, got sucked down the intake, and was instantly vaporized into smoke and white ash. All in all, it was a lousy way to die. Painless, but without much glory.

Up in the cockpit, the pilot let his engines stabilize for only a second, then released his brakes and started to accelerate rapidly down the long runway. As he began to move, the second Bone taxied forward, pushing his throttles into afterburner to begin his take off roll behind his leader.

The radios sprang to life.

“Thunder Flight, this is McConnell tower on guard. Abort. Abort. Abort. I say again. Thunder Flight, this is McConnell tower on guard. Abort. Abort. Abort.”