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country, and though its economy has been catching up fast, it’s still significantly poorer. Consider, for instance, Spain’s record against Italy in these twenty-two years. Over the period Spain’s population, income per head, and international experience were on average about 30 percent inferior to Italy’s. Given that, we would have expected Spain’s goal difference to be about minus two over its four games against Italy. Instead Spain overachieved, notching a win, two ties, and a defeat with a goal difference of zero.

The only other European team in the top ten of overachievers is the Irish Republic. Ireland performed brilliantly between 1980 and 2001

despite having only 4 million inhabitants and, for most of this period, relatively low income per capita. Not until 1994 did an economist from the Morgan Stanley bank coin the phrase “Celtic Tiger.”

However, once again we have the difficulty that many of the teams in our top ten compete almost exclusively against weak opponents.

Syria and Iran played much the same easy schedule as Iraq did. Honduras is a titan of central America. Australia and New Zealand spent much of their time thrashing tiny Pacific islands. South Africa makes the top ten largely because it has so little experience: it rejoined FIFA only in 1992. Furthermore, GDP statistics for poorer countries outside Europe tend to be notoriously unreliable. In general, there is more

“noise” in all the data for countries outside Europe, meaning that we struggle to pick up the influence of the factors we are interested in. It’s like listening to a radio with poor reception: the meaning of the words becomes hard to make out.

It therefore makes more sense to focus on Europe alone. Europe is a more homogeneous place than the world as a whole, meaning that differences, especially in incomes and experience, tend to be smaller. Second, the data are better: Europeans have been collecting them for longer, and they have a relatively long history of transparent record keeping (though there are some very suspicious European statistics). Last, most of the world’s dominant teams are grouped together in Europe, playing against pretty much the same set of opponents. It all adds up to a fairly accurate picture of how well each European team performs.

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F I G U R E 1 4 . 3
Top ten European teams by win percentage, games between European
countries, 1980–2001

Win Goal

Team

Played

Won

Tied

percentage

difference

Germany (united)

97

0.608

0.227

0.722

0.98

West Germany

81

0.580

0.259

0.710

0.98

France

160

0.581

0.238

0.700

0.94

Italy

170

0.565

0.253

0.691

0.78

Czech Republic

70

0.557

0.200

0.657

0.91

Spain

172

0.529

0.256

0.657

0.91

Croatia

69

0.493

0.319

0.652

0.65

England

172

0.483

0.320

0.642

0.87

Netherlands

156

0.494

0.282

0.635

0.92

Russia

75

0.493

0.280

0.633

0.69

Let’s first rank the best European teams on their absolute perfor -

mance, without taking into account their population, experience, or GDP.

Taking only those games played between European teams (that is, eliminating games where at least one team comes from outside Europe), figure 14.3 presents the “absolute” top ten ranked by win percentage.

Crowded at the top, with almost indistinguishable records, are Germany (West and united), France, and Italy. This trio is a clear notch ahead of the Czech Republic, Spain, Croatia, England, Holland, and Russia. None of this is very surprising.

However, things become more interesting after we correct for population, experience, and GDP. Now a new picture emerges. We find that in Europe, home advantage boosts the home team by a little under half a goal per game, compared with two-thirds of a goal in global soccer.

Experience also counts for less in Europe than in the world in general, though it remains the most important of our key variables in winning soccer matches. Having twice the experience of your opponent gives you an advantage of about 30 percent of a goal per game. By contrast, population and GDP count for more in European soccer than they do in global soccer. Having twice the population as the other team is worth a quarter of a goal per game in Europe. Having twice the opponent’s income per capita is worth about one goal every six games. So the factors T O M T H U M B

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in order of importance are (1) playing at home, (2) experience, (3) population, and (4) GDP.

Figure 14.4, the European efficiency table (the first of its kind, as far as we know), may be the most telling we have, so we have ranked every team for which we have data.

F I G U R E 1 4 . 4
Overachievers: Ranking of European national teams, correcting for population, wealth, and experience, all games between two European opponents, 1980–2001

Average goal

Win difference

Rank Team

Played Won

Tied Percentage

per game

Overachievementa

Georgia

61

0.361

0.164

0.443

-0.11

1.167

Yugoslavia (Serbia

and Montenegro)

42

0.452

0.333

0.619

0.74

1.099

Croatia

69

0.493

0.319

0.652

0.65

0.901

Iceland

113

0.274

0.195

0.372

-0.50

0.837

Irish Republic

144

0.410

0.306

0.563

0.42

0.702

Armenia

42

0.119

0.310

0.274

-1.10

0.629

Czech Republic

70

0.557

0.200

0.657

0.91

0.598

Portugal

151

0.483

0.285

0.626

0.51

0.550

Netherlands

156

0.494

0.282

0.635

0.92

0.486

10

Bulgaria

78

0.449

0.218

0.558

0.37

0.406

11

Denmark

181

0.508

0.188

0.602

0.44

0.400

12

Moldova

51

0.157

0.216

0.265

-1.25

0.359

13

Northern Ireland

128

0.305

0.266

0.438

-0.32

0.334

14

Belarus

47

0.170

0.298

0.319

-0.77

0.284

15

Spain

172

0.529

0.256

0.657

0.91

0.241

16

Sweden

178

0.506

0.236

0.624

0.63

0.238

17

Romania

179

0.441

0.302

0.592

0.44

0.225

18

Norway

162

0.383

0.340

0.552

0.33

0.211

19

West Germany

81

0.580

0.259

0.710

0.98

0.168

20

East Germany

57

0.491

0.193

0.588

0.46

0.096

21

Scotland

140

0.400

0.271

0.536

0.10

0.086

22

Albania

70

0.214

0.171

0.300

-0.83

0.063

23

England

172

0.483

0.320

0.642

0.87

0.051

24

France

160

0.581

0.238

0.700

0.94

0.029

25

Belgium

136

0.375

0.309

0.529

0.23

-0.004

26

Wales

114

0.325

0.211

0.430

-0.33

-0.023

27

Israel

126

0.294

0.254

0.421

-0.25

-0.073

28

Bosnia-Herzegovina 29

0.276

0.207

0.379

-0.48

-0.077

(
continues
)

286

F I G U R E 1 4 . 4 (
continued
)

Average goal

Win difference

Rank Team

Played Won

Tied Percentage

per game

Overachievementa

29

Lithuania

79

0.291

0.165

0.373

-0.68

-0.087

30

Italy

170

0.565

0.253

0.691

0.78

-0.119

31

Slovakia

67

0.388

0.254

0.515

-0.03

-0.136

32

Slovenia

64

0.297

0.281

0.438

-0.30

-0.157

33

Switzerland

149

0.329

0.302

0.480

-0.01

-0.171

34

Greece

169

0.349

0.266

0.482

-0.13

-0.198

35

Latvia

73

0.233

0.151

0.308

-0.64

-0.200

36

FYR Macedonia

51

0.275

0.275

0.412

-0.31

-0.212

37

Cyprus

121

0.174

0.182

0.264

-1.36

-0.217

38

Germany (united)

97

0.608

0.227

0.722

0.98

-0.224

39

Poland

174

0.391

0.282

0.532

0.13

-0.304

40

Hungary

168

0.339

0.292

0.485

-0.04

-0.374

41

Austria

125

0.344

0.248

0.468

-0.16

-0.384

42

Russia

75

0.493

0.280

0.633

0.69

-0.390

43

Azerbaijan

52

0.115

0.154

0.192

-1.75

-0.423

44

Finland

146

0.212

0.281

0.353

-0.73

-0.651

45

Ukraine

57

0.368

0.333

0.535

0.05

-0.748

46

Malta

139

0.072

0.144

0.144

-2.04

-0.807

47

Estonia

91

0.099

0.220

0.209

-1.57

-0.984

48

Turkey

130

0.300

0.223

0.412

-0.66

-1.044

49

Luxembourg

100

0.030

0.090

0.075

-2.27

-1.050

aOverachievement is defined as the actual minus the expected goal difference.

Again, the most important number is in the last column: each country’s “relative goal difference.” It turns out that the top ten of overachievers with the best relative goal difference is monopolized by small nations. The Netherlands with its 15 million inhabitants is the giant of the ten. The Portuguese, Serbs (and Montenegrins), and Czechs all have populations around the 10 million mark, while the Croats are at just 5 million.

This European top ten looks more credible than our global one featuring Honduras et al., because a number of the teams on the European list—chiefly, the Dutch, Czechs, Croats, and Portuguese—have achieved genuine success despite being small. However, one cannot but notice T O M T H U M B

287

that at the very top of our table is a team whose win percentage is a mere 44 percent: Georgia.

Georgia comes at the top largely because its official soccer history is so short. Only on May 27, 1990, did the country play its first official international match. In truth it was a 2–2 tie between the Georgian club Dinamo Tblisi and the Lithuanian club Zalgiris Vilnius. Georgia and Lithuania did not exist as independent states at the time, and so couldn’t very well play an international. But in 1991 both nations gained their independence from the USSR, and soon afterward they agreed to redefine the club friendly as their maiden international. By 2001 Georgia had still played only seventy-one internationals in its history, fewer than a tenth as many as England. Armenia, another surprise entrant in our top ten, had played just fifty-seven.

Of course, the notion that these nations started gaining experience in international soccer only in 1990 is a fiction. Georgia and Armenia, like the “Stans,” had been learning the game for decades in the USSR. Yet for the purposes of our table, we have treated them almost as soccer virgins, and thanks to this statistical quirk they rocket to the top. If we credited these states with the experience of the hundreds of international matches played by the USSR, they would tumble down our rankings.

Nonetheless, Georgia clearly has potential. The country is small (5