The Norm Chronicles (48 page)

INDEX

23andMe
266

9/11, avoiding flying after
165

A

abduction
34

abortion
89

above-average effect
166

absolute risk
14
,
44

accidents
52
–62

activity
190

Adams, John
167
,
196
,
208

affect heuristic
127

Afghanistan
17
,
124
,
202

AIDS

advertisement
84

effect on life-expectancy
282

airport security, X-ray
262

alcohol
189

as drug
100

news stories
50

aleatory uncertainty
151

Alpine Club
176

Alzheimer’s disease, gene for
267

Amis, Kingsley
186

anaesthetic

history
252

in childbirth
126

risk
17

anecdote, immunity to
238

asbestos, deaths from
201

asteroid

2037 TP
109

Almahata Sitta
13

Apophis
220

mitigation
221

Potentially Hazardous
219

risk
216

astragulus
132

asymmetry of regret
56

Augustine, St
150

auto-asphyxiation
91

availability bias
49
270

average
139
–45

in contrast to extreme cases
93

law of averages
154

misleading
163

absurd
215

potentially misleading
286

B

Bagenholm, Anna
2

banana, unit of radiation
209

base-jumping
178

basic reproduction number
68

Benzodiazepine
99

betting-odds as probability
288

Bhopal
200

bias, for zero risk
196

biassed assimilation
113

Bible, The
132
278

birth

giving
120
–28

place of
26

weight
14

birthday, matching
79

black swans
226

blame
23

body mass index (BMI)
144
,
190

Boston molasses disaster
200

British Crime Survey
102
,
243

Bureau for Labor Statistics
197

Burglaries
244

C

CABG, risk
255

Caesar, Julius
127

caesarian section
127

cancer

pancreatic
45

prostate
264

risk
43

cannabis

psychosis
103

usage
102

Cardano, Girolamo
132

care costs
274

certainty
118
see also
uncertainty

chance
146
–57

changing mind
161

Chaos theory
156

Chekhov, Anton
42

Chernobyl
209

childbirth, international
123

Cicero, on chance
151

cigarettes

compared to radiation
263

risk from
189

climacteric years
278

climate change

attitudes
109

discount rate
115

coalmining
198

Codeine
99

Codman, Ernest
254

coincidence
72
–81

birthdays
79

definition
76

stories
75

Como, Perry
218

compensation culture
60

Confidential Enquiry into Maternal

Deaths
125

constipation
104

contraception, failure rates
88

control, illusion of
166

Countryside Alliance
62

crashes

plane
171

train
164

cricket, match-fixing
133

crime
235

CT scans
207

Cultural Cognition Project
111

Cultural theory
113

D

de Méré, Chevalier
133

Decision theory
56

denominator neglect
48

determinism
149

Dickens, Charles
76
,
96

dinosaurs, being wiped out
218

disasters
202

train
164

discount rate
115

discounting, temporal
185

diving
178

DNA, identifying children
33

Dostoevsky, Fyodor
148

Douglas, Mary
101
,
113
,
197

dread risks
206

drowning

children
55

fishermen
199

drugs
94
–106

Duckworth-Lewis method
133

E

E. Coli
117

earthquake
117

Ecstasy (MDMA)
99

usage
102

edgework
180

eminence-based medicine
250

epistemic uncertainty
151

equasy
104

evidence-based medicine
250

exercise
190

extreme sports
174
–81

F

falls from ladders
9

fear

factors
206

of flying
170

of violence
237

fecundability
87

Fermat, Pierre de
133
,
287

Fish, Michael
119

fishing, commercial
199

Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs)
135

flying
170
–73

food poisoning
117

force of mortality
186
,
279

framing
45
–8

free will
149
,
152

fruit and veg
190

Fukushima
210

fun
84
,
132
,
137
,
see also
extreme sports

funnel plot
257

G

Galton, Francis
152

Gamble Aware
134

gambling
129
–38

pathological
136

gases, kinetic theory
153

genetic screening
266

genetic variant
47

Gigerenzer, Gerd
46
,
165

Gill, Tim
61

Gompertz, Benjamin
280

gonorrhoea, rates
91

Gould, Stephen Jay
143

Grand National
287

Gummer, John
119

H

Halley, Edmond
278

hazard

curve
280

of employment
230

of unemployment
228

ratio
186

health and safety
194
–203

Health and Safety Executive
61

ALARP
202

myths
195

healthy worker effect
201

heart disease, deaths
9

heart valve surgery, risk
255

Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle
156

helicopter accidents
173

high-impact, low-probability events
226

Hiroshima
209

Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
153

HIV, risk of infection
91

Holmes, Sherlock
97
,
105

horse-racing, betting
136
,
287

horse-riding

accidents
179

addiction to
104

hospitals

outcome statistics
254

risk
253

HPV vaccine
67

side-effects
70

Human Mortality Database
280

hurricane
119

I

illusory superiority
166

infancy
20
–30

infant mortality
23

international
27

International Labour Organisation
198

involuntary risk
206

ionising radiation
206

J

journeys, by train
163

Jung, Carl
76

K

Kahan, Dan
111

Kahneman, Daniel
49
,
237
,
270

Keynes, John Maynard
161

knife-crime, in London
240

L

L’Aquila
117

L’homme moyen
142
,
153

Laplace, Pierre
151

Laudanum
96

lie detectors
261

life-expectancy
281

historical
282

lifestyle
182
–94

London beer flood
200

longevity
278

lottery

for decision-making
131

Irish, buying all tickets
134