The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future (37 page)

36
Svante Arrhenius, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground,”
Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science,
5th Series 41 (April 1896): 237-276.

37
For more about Arrhenius and other early research on the greenhouse effect, see R. Henson,
The Rough Guide to Climate Change
(London: Penguin Books Ltd., 2008).

38
From global weather station data, the average hundred-year linear trend from 1906 to 2005 is +0.74°C (with error bars, between +0.56°C and +0.92°C). From air bubbles trapped in ice cores, we know atmospheric CO
₂
concentrations averaged ~280 ppm in the preindustrial era (before ~1750 A.D.) versus ~387 ppm in 2009. The first continuous direct sampling of CO
₂
concentration was begun by Charles “Dave” Keeling at Mauna Loa Observatory in 1958 and continued by his son Ralph Keeling. Carbon dioxide levels have risen consistently every year from ~315 ppm in 1958 to ~387 ppm in 2009. For the latest data, see
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/
. The 2007 IPCC SRES B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI illustrative marker scenarios are about 600, 700, 800, 850, 1,250, and 1,550 ppm, by century’s end respectively, with different scenarios reflecting different assumptions about controlling carbon emissions. Such numbers are two to five times preindustrial levels.
IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report,
Table 3.1. (Full reference
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [AR4], Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland: 104 pp.) available at
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
.

39
J. O’Neill, S. Lawson, “Things Are Heating Up: Economic Issues and Opportunities from Global Warming,”
CEO Confidential,
Issue 2007-01, Goldman Sachs, February 8, 2007; J. Lash, F. Wellington, “Competitive Advantage on a Warming Planet,”
Harvard Business Review,
March 2007.

40
USCAP Press Release, “Joint Statement of the United States Climate Action Partnership,” January 19, 2007,
www.us-cap.org/media/release_USCAPStatement011907.pdf
(accessed November 20, 2008).

41
From
www.us-cap.org/about/index.asp
(accessed November 23, 2008). The Web page later showed the withdrawal of several members.

42
Atmospheric CO
₂
variations have both natural cycles—which fall and rise with ice ages and warm interglacial periods—and anthropogenic sources, which are also substantial but rise much faster. Our current anthropogenic boost is perched on top of an already large natural interglacial peak, thus taking the atmosphere to levels not seen since the Miocene. Over the past 800,000 years of multiple ice age/warm interglacial cycles, including the current interglacial of the past ~12,000 years, preindustrial atmospheric CO
₂
levels cycled within a range of ~172 (ice age) to 300 (interglacial) parts per million by volume (ppmv). Human activity has now boosted that to ~385 ppmv and we are projected to reach at least 450 ppmv and perhaps as much as 1,550 ppmv by the end of this century. See ice-core record, D. Lüthi et al., “High-Resolution Carbon Dioxide Concentration Record 650,000-800,000 Years before Present,”
Nature
453 (2008): 379-382, DOI:10.1038/nature06949; also Urs Siegenthaler et al., “Stable Carbon Cycle-Climate Relationship during the Late Pleistocene,”
Science
310, no. 131 (November 2005), DOI:10.1126/science.1120130, and others.

43
Much older Miocene PCO
₂
now estimated from boron/calcium ratios in ocean core foraminifera, A. K. Tripati, C. D. Roberts, R. A. Eagle, “Coupling of CO
₂
and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years,”
Science
326, no. 5958 (December 4, 2009): 1394-1397, DOI:10.1126/science.1178296.

44
These events reconstructed from the victim’s interview on Fox News (“Black Friday Tragedy,” January 23, 2009);
Newsday
(“Trampled Wal-Mart Worker Had Helped Pregnant Woman,” January 24, 2009); and materials provided by the Nassau County Police Department, courtesy Detective Anthony Repalone, January 8, 2009.

45
Population growth, commerce, and trade are not, of course, the only factors driving urban economic growth. For the past ten to twenty years, foreign direct investment has been at least as important. Effective governance and infrastructure are also critical. We will come to these later in the chapter. For more on how the level of urbanization is not always “coupled” to economic growth, see D. E. Bloom, D. Canning, G. Fink, “Urbanization and the Wealth of Nations,”
Science
319 (2008).

46
Even slum cities in our poorest countries usually offer better economic opportunities than do surrounding rural areas, although the job sector is informal and quality of life low. Global employment in services now averages 40% of total employment, versus 39% in agriculture. In developed countries and the European Union, service-sector jobs capture a whopping 73% of all employment. In contrast, they capture just 28% in sub-Saharan Africa. P. 330 and Table 11.2, P. Knox et al.,
The Geography of the World Economy,
5th ed. (London: Hodder Education, 2008), 464 pp.

47
Governments around the world are doing their part to help encourage all this. A new survey of 245 of the world’s fastest-growing cities found them building transportation systems, designating “special economic zones,” and streamlining their banking and financial systems.
State of the World’s Cities 2008/2009,
United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (UK and USA: Earthscan, 2008).

48
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2008.

49
State of the World’s Cities 2008/2009,
UN-HABITAT, 2008.

50
Press Conference, United Nations Department of Public Information, News and Media Division, New York, February 26, 2008.

51
UN-HABITAT Press Release, SOWC/08/PR2, 2008.

52
Table I.7,
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2008.

53
66.2% urban in 2050 versus 40.8% urban in 2007; whereas Europe was 72.2% urban in 2007 and is projected to be 76.2% urban in 2050. Table I.5,
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2008.

54
The 40% figure is relative to the year 2007. UN model projections for 2050 (medium variant) are population of the world 9.191 billion, Africa 1.998 billion, China 1.409 billion, India 1.658 billion, Europe 0.664 billion, South America 0.516 billion, North America 0.445 billion. These and most other population projections from
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database,
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, viewed January 30, 2009.

55
UN-HABITAT, 2008.

56
Hong Kong is ranked first. This index was created by the Heritage Foundation and
Wall Street Journal
and ranks the world’s countries using ten descriptors ranging from free trade to corruption. Singapore received 87 out of 100 possible points in 2009; the United States received 80 points out of 100, ranking it sixth behind Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Ireland, and New Zealand. Nigeria received only 55 points, ranking it #117 out of 179 countries evaluated. Data from
www.heritage.org/index
, viewed January 28, 2009.

57
Government of Singapore Investment Corporation and Temasek Holdings, V. Shih, “Tools of Survival: Sovereign Wealth Funds in Singapore and China,”
Geopolitics
14, no. 2 (2009): 328-344; also
http://www.temasekholdings.com.sg/media_centre_faq.htm
(accessed November 16, 2009).

58
Mass transit is so efficient and appealing in Singapore that it has far fewer cars per capita than other comparable cities. Only 5% of Singapore’s energy consumption goes into transportation, unlike Berlin (35%), London (26%), New York (36%), Tokyo (38%), Bologna (28%), Mexico City (53%), or Buenos Aires (49%). Figure 3.4.3, and 3.4.4 UN-HABITAT, 2008, p. 160.

59
Allen J. Scott,
Technopolis: High-Technology Industry and Regional Development in Southern California
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1994), 322 pp.

60
H. Ghesquiere,
Singapore’s Success: Engineering Economic Growth
(Singapore: Thomson Learning, 2007).

61
M. Gandy, “Planning, Anti-planning, and the Infrastructure Crisis Facing Metropolitan Lagos,”
Urban Studies
43, no. 2 (2006): 371-396.

62
E. Alemika, I. Chukwuma, “Criminal Victimization and Fear of Crime in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria,” CLEEN Foundation Monograph Series, no. 1, 2005.

63
J. Harnishfeger, “The Bakassi Boys: Fighting Crime in Nigeria,”
Journal of Modern African Studies
41, no. 1 (2003): 23-49.

64
“The State of Human Rights in Nigeria, 2005-2006,” National Human Rights Commission, Nigeria, 2006,
http://web.ng.undp.org/publications/governance/STATE_OF_HUMAN_RIGHTS_REPORT_IN_NIGERIA.pdf
(accessed March 31, 2010). Note: The events described in this document were not independently verified.

65
P. 1,
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2008), 99 pp.

66
“Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050,” Global Economics Paper no 99, Goldman Sachs (2003), 24 pp. Other, more recent model studies yield comparable results.

67
E.g., from the global accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers, “The World in 2050: How Big Will the Major Emerging Market Economies Get and How Can the OECD Compete?” J. Hawksworth, Head of Macroeconomics, PWC (2006), 46 pp.; and the Japan Center for Economic Research, “Long-term Forecast of Global Economy and Population 2006-2050: Demographic change and the Asian Economy,” JCER (March 2007), 51 pp., and others.

68
These data are from the above econometric model study of the BRICs by Goldman Sachs. All figures in inflation-adjusted 2003 U.S. dollars, for years 2003 and 2050, Appendix II, Global Paper no. 99, Goldman Sachs (2003). Rather than simply extrapolating current growth rates, the model prescribes a set of clear assumptions capturing how growth and development work. Some of these—like continued financial and institutional stability, openness to trade, and education, for example—could certainly change with the choices of future political leaders. The extent to which the 2008-09 global economic collapse might delay these particular projections is unclear, but as of April 2010 these developing economies were recovering sharply (see next).

69
From 2007 to 2009, GDP grew 2.17%, 8.76%, 6.35% annually for Brazil, India, and China, respectively, and shrank -1.6%, -2.08%, and -3.07% in the U.S., Germany, and Japan. The revised Carnegie 2050 GDP projections are also from this study. U. Dadush and B. Stancil, “The G20 in 2050,”
International Economic Bulletin,
November 2009,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24195
(accessed November 26, 2009).

70
“Brazil Takes Off,”
The Economist
339, no. 8657 (November 12, 2009): 15.

71
Dadush and Stancil (2009).

72
The Goldman Sachs study projects Russia’s per capita income to rise to around USD $50,000 by 2050 (all figures in inflation-adjusted 2003 U.S. dollars).

73
India’s per capita income in 2010 was less than USD $1,000; it is projected to rise to around USD $17,000 by 2050 (all figures in inflation-adjusted 2003 U.S. dollars).

74
P. 99,
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2008), 99 pp.

75
William A. V. Clark,
The California Cauldron: Immigration and the Fortunes of Local Communities
(New York: The Guilford Press, 1998), 224 pp.

76
See note 15.

77
For a good example of how population momentum is playing out in Asia, see S. B. Westley, “A Snapshot of Populations in Asia,”
Asia-Pacific Population & Policy
59 (2002).

78
0.55% per year in 2050, a global population doubling time of about 130 years, versus 1.02% in 2007, a doubling time of about 70 years. Data projections from
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database,
United Nations Population Division, viewed January 29, 2009.