The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future (39 page)

123
Drawn from remarks by José Goldemberg, National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future, Washington, D.C., March 2008.

124
This forecast is not an extrapolation but is based on the number of ethanol plants licensed and under construction in Brazil, National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future, Washington, D.C., March 2008.

125
José Goldemberg, Suani Teixeira Coelho, Patricia Guardabassi,
Sugarcane’s Energy: Twelve Studies on Brazilian Sugarcane Agribusiness and Its Sustainability
,
Energy Policy
36, no. 6 (June 2008): 2086-2097
.
Multiple files available for free download from UNICA (Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association) at
http://english.unica.com.br/multimedia/publicacao/
; also personal interview with Dr. Matthew C. Nisbitt, Columbus, Ohio, April 18, 2008.

126
Fig. 7.3, summary from National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future, Washington, D.C., March 2008.

127
“Brazil Ethanol Sales Pass Petrol,”
Sydney Morning Herald,
December 31, 2008.

128
M. E. Himmel et al., “Biomass Recalcitrance: Engineering Plants and Enzymes for Biofuels Production,”
Science
315 (2007): 804-807.

129
Ethanol studies are all over the map in terms of net greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits or penalties, hinging notably on whether or not “coproducts” are included in the accounting. When these factors are considered, the GHG benefits of corn ethanol over petroleum become negligible, about a 13% reduction when the benefits of coproducts are included. But ethanol produced from cellulosic material (switchgrass) reduces both GHGs and petroleum inputs substantially. A. E. Farrell et al, “Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals,
Science
311 (2006): 506-508.

130
Drawn from remarks by José Goldemberg, National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future, Washington, D.C., March 2008.

131
C. Gautier,
Oil, Water, and Climate: An Introduction
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 366 pp.

132
“Food Crisis Renews Haiti’s Agony,”
Time,
April 9, 2008; “Looters Running Wild in Haiti’s Food Riots,”
San Francisco Chronicle,
April 10, 2008; “Hunger, Strikes, Riots: The Food Crisis Bites,”
The Guardian,
April 13, 2008; D. Loyn, “World Wakes Up to Food Challenge,” BBC News, October 15, 2008.

133
Provided that areas currently used for grazing are converted to agriculture, especially in South America and the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa. E. M. W. Smeets et al., “A Bottom-Up Assessment and Review of Global Bio-energy Potentials to 2050,”
Progress in Energy and Combustion Science
33 (2007): 56-106.

134
A. E. Farrell et al., “Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals,”
Science
311 (2006): 506-508.

135
For example, advanced conversion technologies like enzymatic hydrolysis, and new yeasts and microorganisms to convert five-carbon sugars.
Energy Technology Perspectives—Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
, International Energy Agency (2006), 483 pp.

136
The ecological footprint is a measure of environmental impact converted to units of land area. Holden and Høyer calculate ecological footprints of four different energy regimes and found that hydropower reduces ecological footprint by -75%, natural gas by -45% to -75% (highest for fuel cells), and oil by -15% to -30%, but cellulosic (wood) biofuel by 0% to +50%. E. Holden and K. G. Høyer, “The Ecological Footprints of Fuels,”
Transportation Research Part D
10 (2005): 395-403.

137
G. Fischer, L. Schrattenholzer, “Global Bioenergy Potentials through 2050,”
Biomass and Bioenergy
20 (2001): 151-159; and
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050,
OECD/International Energy Agency (2008), 643 pp.

138
Up to 26% liquid biofuels by 2050. Ibid.

139
Table 9.1, “Nuclear Generating Units, 1955-2007,” U.S. Energy Information Administration,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/nuclear.html
(accessed March 11, 2009).

140
A. Petryna,
Life Exposed: Biological Citizens after Chernobyl
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002), 264 pp.

141
The recovery workers now suffer a cancer rate several percent higher than normal, with up to four thousand additional people dying (over the expected one hundred thousand) by 2004. By 2002 about four thousand children had contracted thyroid cancer from drinking radioiodine-contaminated milk in the first months after the accident. The Chernobyl Forum: 2003-2005, “Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental and SocioEconomic Impacts,” 2nd rev. ed. (Vienna: IAEA Division of Public Information, April 2006). Available from
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl
. pdf. The Chernobyl Forum is an initiative of the IAEA, in cooperation with the WHO, UNDP, FAO, UNEP, UN-OCHA, UNSCEAR, the World Bank, and the governments of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. The mortality figures in this report are decried by some as being too low, but this comprehensive UN-led effort does represent a conservative assessment of the disaster.

142
M. L. Wald, “After 30 Slow Years, U.S. Nuclear Industry Set to Build Plants Again,”
International Herald Tribune,
October 24, 2008; “EDF Nuclear Contamination,”
The Economist,
November 21, 2009, 65-66; “Obama offers loan guarantees for first new nuclear power reactors in three decades,”
USA Today
, February 16, 2010; S. Chu, “America’s New Nuclear Option: Small modular reactors will expand the ways we use atomic power,”
The Wall Street Journal
, March 23, 2010. A record 62% of Americans surveyed in a March 2010 Gallup poll favored the use of nuclear power, the highest since Gallup began polling on the issue in 1994. “Public support for nuclear power at new peak,”
The Washington Post
, March 22, 2010.

143
The other being hydropower.

144
The white gas is water vapor, see note 120.

145
Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

146
S. Fetter, “Energy 2050,”
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
(July/August 2000): 28-38.

147
Of particular promise are new “light water” reactors designed to be safer than today’s nuclear plants, with core-damage probabilities lower than one in a million reactor-years. Ibid.

148
Conventional
meaning “once-through” nuclear reactors of one thousand megawatt capacity each, with no spent-fuel recycling, thorium, or breeder reactors.
The Future of Nuclear Power: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study
(Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003), 170 pp.

149
Global electricity production from nuclear power was 2,771 TWh/yr in 2005, capturing 15% market share. By 2050, based on a range of global decision scenarios modeled by the International Energy Agency, it could fall as low as 3,884 TWh/yr and 8% market share (“Baseline 2050” scenario, with few new reactors built) or rise to as much as 15,877 TWh/yr and 38% market share (“BLUE HiNUC” scenario, with maximum expansion of nuclear power). Table 2.5,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

150
Geothermal, ocean waves, and tidal energy are all carbon-free energy sources with high potential in certain places on Earth. However, none is foreseen as becoming more than a niche energy source by the year 2050.

151
Hydropower currently supplies about 2,922 TWh/yr, capturing 16% of the world electricity market. Based on a range of global decision scenarios modeled by the International Energy Agency, it will grow so slowly that it will actually lose market share, rising to between 4,590 TWh/yr and 9% market share (“Baseline 2050” scenario) to 5,505 TWh/yr and 13% market share by 2050 (“BLUE hiOil&Gas” scenario). Table 2.5,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

152
C. Goodall,
Ten Technologies to Save the Planet
(London: Green Profile, 2008), 302 pp.

153
As of 2006, Germany, the United States, and Spain were leading the world in wind power with 22,247, 16,818, and 15,145 megawatts installed capacity, respectively. India and China had 8,000 and 6,050 megawatts, respectively. The United States is now installing more turbines per year than any other country. Table 10.1,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

154
Technological advances, increased manufacturing capacity, and bigger turbines have helped to lower the cost of wind energy at least fourfold since the 1980s. Efficiency has steadily increased and the turbines themselves have become larger and taller, with mass-produced rotors growing from less than 20 meters in 1985 to >100 meters today, roughly the length of an American football field. While not yet price-competitive with coal or gas-fired power plants, wind-powered electricity is getting close.

155
Based on a range of global decision scenarios modeled by the International Energy Agency, global electricity production from wind power will rise from 111 TWh/yr and 1% market share in 2005 to at least 1,208 TWh/yr and 2% market share by 2050 (“Baseline 2050” scenario, with no new incentives), and could rise as high as 6,743 TWh/yr and 17% market share (“BLUE noCCS” scenario, with aggressive incentives and no established carbon sequestration technology). Table 2.5,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

156
The Shockley-Queisser limit.

157
N. S. Lewis, “Toward Cost-Effective Solar Energy Use,”
Science
315 (2007): 798-801.

158
See note 118.

159
M. Lavelle, “Big Solar Project Planned for Arizona Desert,”
U.S. News & World Report,
February 21, 2008.

160
For more information visit the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) home page,
www.desertec.org
.

161
See D. J. C. Mackay,
Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air
(Cambridge, UK: UIT Cambridge, Ltd., 2009), 370 pp., available for free download at
http://www.withouthotair.com
. C. Goodall estimates the cost for undersea HVDC cable between Norway and the Netherlands, completed April 2008, at €1 million per kilometer.
Ten Technologies to Save the Planet
(London: Green Profile, 2008), 302 pp.

162
CSP plants, because they use the traditional turbine method for electricity generation, can also be designed to burn natural gas or coal during nights and cloudy days.

163
A newer concept, called compressed-air storage, is to pump air, rather than water, into a tank or sealed underground cavern.

164
www.google.org/recharge/index.html
(accessed March 10, 2009).

165
Especially in thin-film photovoltaics and cheap catalysts, e.g., M. W. Kanan, D. G. Nocera, “In Situ Formation of an Oxygen-Evolving Catalyst in Neutral Water Containing Phosphate and Co
²⁺
,”
Science
321 (2008): 1072-1075. According to the International Energy Agency the price of photovoltaic electricity in sunny climes could fall to $0.05 per kWh by 2050.

166
N. S. Lewis, “Toward Cost-Effective Solar Energy Use,”
Science
315 (2007): 798-801.

167
C. Goodall,
Ten Technologies to Save the Planet
(London: Green Profile, 2008), 302 pp.

168
Based on a range of global decision scenarios modeled by the International Energy Agency, global solar electricity production will rise from 3 TWh/yr (virtually zero market share) in 2005 to 167 TWh/yr (still virtually zero market share) in 2050 (“Baseline 2050” scenario, with no new incentives), to as high as 5,297 TWh/yr and 13% market share by 2050 (“BLUE noCCS” scenario, with aggressive incentives and no established carbon sequestration technology). Table 2.5,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

169
Today, some 82% of the world’s electricity is made from nonrenewable coal (40%), natural gas (20%), uranium (15%), and oil (7%). Hydropower and all other renewables combined provide just 18%. Depending on our choices, they could rise to capture as much as 64% market share by 2050 (in an extremely aggressive scenario) or drop slightly to 15%. The true outcome will likely lie somewhere in between these IEA model simulations, but under no imaginable scenario will we free ourselves from fossil hydrocarbon energy in the next forty years.