The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future (50 page)

535
The so-called “resource curse” refers to empirical evidence that states with abundant resource wealth perform less well than resource-poor ones, but there is little consensus about why this is. See M. L. Ross, “The Political Economy of the Resource Curse,”
World Politics
51 (1999): 297-322; C. N. Brunnschweiler, E. H. Bulte, “The Resource Curse Revisited and Revised: A Tale of Paradoxes and Red Herrings,”
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
55, no. 3 (2008): 248-264.

536
The bulk of the Arctic economy is based on commodity exports. Public services comprise 20%-40% GDP, transportation accounts for some 5%-12%, with tourism and retail significant only in particular areas. In 2001 the total Arctic economy was U.S. $230 billion (in purchasing power parity), with
Arctic
defined as all of Alaska (USA); Yukon, NWT, Nunavut, Nunavik, and Labrador (Canada); Greenland and the Faroe Islands (Denmark); Iceland; Nordland, Troms, Finnmark, and Svalbard (Norway); Västerbotten and Norrbotten (Sweden); Oulu and Lapland (Finland); and the republics of Karelia, Komi, and Sakha; the oblasts of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Tyumen, Kamchatka, and Magadan; the autonomous okrugs of Nenets, Khanty-Mansii, Yamal-Nenets, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Taimyr, Evenk, Koryak, and Chukchi (Russian Federation). “Public services” includes public administration, health care, and education. “Economic Systems,” pp. 59-84 of
Arctic Human Development Report
(Akureyri, Iceland: Stefansson Arctic Institute, 2004), 242 pp.

537
NTCL, founded in 1934 as Northern Waterways Limited, was purchased in 1985 by the Inuvialuit Development Corporation and Nunasi Corporation, making it a 100% private, aboriginal-owned company. For more, see
www.ntcl.com/about-us/history-timeline.html
.

CREDITS

Frontmatter maps by author.

Page 51.
Musical lyrics from “Whoever You Are” by Tommy C. Jordan and Greg Kurstin © 1996 Nudo Music/Warner Bros. Records, Inc., reprinted by permission of Tommy C. Jordan and Hal Leonard Corporation (Whoever You Are, Words and Music by Greg Kurstin and Tommy Jordan, ©2004 EMI BLACKWOOD MUSIC, INC., TUCANO MUSIC, AND NUDO MUSIC, all Rights for TUCANO MUSIC Controlled and Administered by EMI BLACKWOOD MUSIC INC., All Rights Reserved, International Copyright Secured, Used by Permission).

Page 118:
Maps by author using model data courtesy of Joseph Alcamo and Martina Flörke, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel.

Page 126, 128:
Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC.

Pages 158-159:
Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362).

Page 166:
Map by author.

Page 212:
Map by author.

Page 250:
“Abandonment of the Jeannette” reprinted from
Wonders of the Polar World,
National Publishing Co.: Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, 1885. “The Last Polar Bear” used by permission from
Freezingpictures/Dreamstime.com/GetStock.com
.

For photo insert (numbers refer to photograph sequence):

1. Photo used by permission from James Martell; 2, 3. Photos by author; 4. Photo used by permission from John Rasmussen, Narsaq Foto; 5. Photo used by permission from Dr. Ivan Frolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Saint Petersburg; 6. Photo used by permission from ITAR-TASS News Agency, Russian Federation, 7-11. Photos by author; 12. Photo used by permission from Dr. Vladimir Romanovsky, University of Alaska—Fairbanks; 13. Photo by author; 14. Photo used by permission from
Toronto Star
/
GetStock.com
; 15. Photo used by permission from Dr. Richard Forster, University of Utah; 16. Photo used by permission from David Dodge, The Pembina Institute (
www.oilsandswatch.org
); 7. Photo used by permission from Benjamin Jones, Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage. Backmatter author photo used by permission from Karen Frey, Clark Univertiy.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

T
his project came about thanks to the urging of two highly accomplished colleagues: Judith Carney and William A. V. Clark, of the UCLA Department of Geography. The conversation over a brief coffee with Clark, a hard-boiled statistician not known for mincing words, went like this:

Clark:
You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.

Smith:
I’m a scientist. We don’t write books.

Clark:
Nonsense. I know plenty that do. You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.

Four years later the book is done thanks to their advice, a fellowship from the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, and the support of three other especially encouraging colleagues—John Agnew, Jared Diamond, and David Rigby, also UCLA geographers.

I thank my agent, Russell Weinberger of Brockman, Inc., for taking on a first-time book author with no experience writing for a lay audience. His patience in fielding my many questions was surpassed only by the patience of my editors Stephen Morrow (Dutton, New York) and Duncan Clark (Profile Books, London).

I am indebted to my amazing wife, Abbie Tingstad, who I met researching the book. Aside from her graciousness upon discovering her new husband would embed at his desk for nearly two years, she was the book’s foremost critic and sounding board. I thank my parents, Norman and Judith Smith, and brother, Daniel, for being so supportive of me throughout the project.

Maps and illustrations were drawn by the superb cartographer and artist Chase Langford. Vital research assistance was provided by UCLA students Vena Chu, Nora Hazzakzadeh, and Scott Stephenson.

The manuscript was substantially improved thanks to critical expert reviews of one or more chapters by John Agnew, Richard Alley, Doug Alsdorf, Lawson Brigham, Marshall Burke, Richard Glenn, John Grace, Richard Forster, Dennis Lettenmaier, David Perrin, and Gavin Schmidt. Scott Lefavour and Gary Levy provided helpful feedback on the final chapter. Norman Smith and Abbie Tingstad read and commented on the manuscript in its entirety.

Many people sacrificed time from their busy lives to grant interviews. These include Trevor Amiot, Daniel Augur, David Barber, Jeremy Beal, Kathryn Boivin, Cathie Bolstad, Jason Box, Ron Brower, Guylaine Charbonneau, Nellie Couroyea, Joanne Delaronde, Lloyd Dick, John Donihee, Ken Drinkwater, Kamyar Enshayan, Lyle Fetterly, Patrick Frank, Beth Freeman, Melissa Gibbons, Richard Glenn, Michael Goodyear, John Grace, Robert Grandjambe, Jackie Grebmeier, James Hansen, Udloriak Hanson, David Henry, Tony Hill, Harry Hillaker, Tom Hoefer, Stella Hoksbergen, Robert Huebert, Richard Janowicz, Anne Jensen, Lars-Emil Johansen, Brenda Jones, Eli Kavik, Aili Keskitalo, Andrei Kortunov, Jason Langis, Brian and Susan Lendrum, Diana Liverman, Kim Ma, Lise Marchand, John Marshall, Stephanie Martin, Dan McKenney, Jim McLaughlin, Jobie Meeko, Josee Michaud, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Kevin Mulligan, Dona Novecosky, Adrian Orr, Pentti and Ritva Peltokangas, Tony Penikett, Dorothy Peteet, Laurie Renauer, Andrew Revkin, John Richardson, Ed Schultz, Glenn Sheehan, Elisapee Sheutiapik, Mary Simon, Duane Smith, Rodney Smith, Guy Smith, Mike Spence, Sara Tabbert, Greg Thessen, Lonnie Thompson, Daniela Tommasini, Wayne Tuck, Paningoak’ Vaengtoft, Sophie Vandenbergh, Alexei Varlamov, Aino Viker, Don Wallette, George Wandering Spirit, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, and Robert Zywotko.

Individuals who provided data, readings, photographs, advice, or other forms of assistance include Joseph Alcamo, Kim Barnes, Jason Box, Marsha Branigan, Lawson Brigham, David Dodge, Gebisa Ejita, Kamyar Enshayan, Martina Flörke, Gail Fondahl, Louis Fortier, Cary Fowler, Karen Frey, Ivan Frolov, Harry Gill, Maya Gold, Ken Hinkel, Larry Hinzman, Ben Jones, Tommy Jordan, Sergey Kirpotin, David Lawrence, Glen MacDonald, Ross MacDonald, James Martell, Philip Micklin, Tatiana Mikhailova, Kevin Mulligan, Tom Narins, Heather Nicol, Matthew Nisbitt, Samuel Niza, Trevor Paglen, Martin Pasqualetti, Tamlin Pavelsky, Fred Pearce, Dorothy Peteet, Tom Puleo, John Rasmussen, Åsa Rennermalm, Anthony Repalone, Bruce Robison, Vladimir Romanovsky, Michael Shermer, Nikolay Shiklomanov, C. K. Shum, Dimas Streletskiy, and Sara Wheeler.

Travel for this project was supported in part by the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, with sabbatical release time granted by the University of California-Los Angeles. Several months of office space were kindly provided by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, and a Bellagio Residency from the John D. Rockefeller Foundation.

INDEX

Note: Page numbers in
italics
indicate photographs and illustrations. Page numbers followed by the letter “n” indicate note reference.

Abdulkadir, Ibrahim

Abdulkadir, Shehu

aboriginal peoples: geographic distribution of power; and globalization; and the high Arctic; and human settlement patterns; and land claims; and mineral rights; and the “New North,” and political power; and regional corporations; and traditional hunters

Achuku, Vincent

Afghanistan

Africa.
See also specific countries
: and climate change; and hydropower; and the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and oil resources; and population growth; and power transmission systems; and projected river flows; and resource pressure; and urbanization; and water resources

African Development Bank

agriculture: and carbon dioxide fertilization effect; decline of; and demography; and ethanol production; and global warming; and the Louisiana Purchase; and urbanization; and water resources; and water transportation

Al Qaeda

Alaska: and aboriginal peoples; Alaska Highway; Alaska Platform; Alaska Purchase; and Arctic resources; and global warming; and human settlement patterns; and oil resources; and population growth; and Russian foreign policy; and the Siberian Curse; and UNCLOS; and U.S. foreign policy; and water resources; and winter roads; and World War II,

Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA)

Alaskan Federation of Natives

albedo effect

Alberta Tar Sands

Alcamo, Joseph

Algeria

Alley, Richard B.

Alsdorf, Doug

Altiplano Plateau

Amazon basin

American Geophysical Union

American Indians

Amur Oblast

Annan, Kofi

Annin, Peter

Antarctica

Anuka, Godwin

aquatic ecosystems

aquifers

Arabian Desert

Arctic Circle

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Arctic Council

Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy

Arctic Ocean: and indigenous peoples; and natural resources; and river runoff; and the rule of law; and sea ice levels; and the seabed; and shipping; and UNCLOS

Argentina

Arrhenius, Svante

Asia.
See specific countries

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

Asian Development Bank

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Athabasca Tar Sands

Australia

Azeez, Adulkadir

Azerbaijan

Baffin Island

Baikal-Amur Mainline Railroad

Baku oil fields

Ban Ki-Moon

Bangladesh

Banks Island

Barents Sea

Barlow, Maude

Barnaby, Wendy

Barnett, Tim

Barrow, Alaska

Bartram, Jamie

Bazhenov Shale

Beaufort Sea

Belgium

Bering Sea

Bering Strait

Betancourt, Julio

biodiversity.
See also
wildlife

biofuels.
See also
ethanol

biotechnology

birth rates

bitumen

Bodman, Samuel

boreal forests

Borgerson, Scott

Box, Jason

Brakenridge, Bob

Brazil: and aging populations; and concentrated solar thermal (CSP) power; and economic growth models; and power transmission systems; and shifting economic power; and water resources

Bretton Woods Agreement

BRICs.
See
Brazil; China; India; Russia and the Russian Federation

Britain.
See also
United Kingdom

Broecker, Wallace

Brown, Gordon

Burgan oil fields

Burke, Marshall

Bush, George H. W.

Bush, George W.

California: and the Louisiana Purchase; and renewable energy; and sea levels; and water resources

Cambodia

Canada: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and Arctic shipping; and climate distribution; and crop yields; and demographic trends; and education; and endangered species; and foreign relations; and global warming; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and the Kyoto Protocol; and the “New North,” and North Pole expeditions; and oil sands; and power transmission systems; and the Siberian Curse; and UNCLOS; and water resources; and wind power; and winter roads; and World War II,

canals

Canterell field

Cape Cod, Massachusetts

carbon emissions: and biofuels; and carbon capture technology; and climate change; fertilization effect; and hydrogen fuel cells; and the Kyoto Protocol; and melting permafrost; monitoring levels of; natural cycles of; and oil resources; persistence in atmosphere; and renewable energy resources

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Carson, Rachel

Carter, Jimmy

Caspian Sea

cellulosic ethanol

Central Asia

Central Valley

Chad

Chávez, Hugo

Chernobyl power plant

Chicago Diversion

Chile

Chilingarov, Artur

China: and aging populations; and Arctic resources; and coal resources; and economic growth models; and global warming; and human settlement patterns; and melting permafrost; and natural gas resources; and nuclear power; and population control policies; and power transmission systems; and the Russian Far East; and Russian immigration policy; and shifting economic power; Singapore as model for; unification of; and urbanization; and water resources; and wind power

The Christian Science Monitor

Chu, Steven

Churchill, Manitoba

Churchill, Winston

civil rights movement

“clean coal,”

climate change: and aboriginal peoples; and abrupt-change scenarios; and agriculture; and the Arctic; and climate models; and coal; connection to other global forces; and demographic trends; described; and drought; and electric vehicles; and endangered species; and geophysical impacts; and inertia of global forces; and medieval warming period; and melting ice sheets; and melting permafrost and migration of species; monitoring climate; and national security; and nuclear power; and ocean temperatures; and prospects for NORCs; and risk management; and river runoff; and sea ice; and sea levels; and short-term fluctuations; and snowpack and glaciers; SRES scenarios; and water resources; and winter roads

Clinton, Bill

Clinton, Hillary Rodham

coal

Cohen, Joel E.

Cold War

Collapse
(Diamond)

Colombia

Colorado River

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

concentrated solar thermal (CSP) power

Congo basin

continental effect

Copenhagen Climate Conference

corn-based ethanol

corruption

Costa Rica

Cournoyea, Nellie J.

crime

Cuba