Dennis Wheatley - Duke de Richleau 07 (10 page)

“Knowing this,
surely the French will take the precaution to guard against such an
eventuality, by concentrating a large part of their army in the neighbourhood
of Amiens?”

The General
hesitated a second, then he said: “You will appreciate that I cannot give you
any definite information about the plans of the French General Staff. On the
other hand, I do not wish to mislead you as to possibilities. Both France and
Germany will require several weeks to complete their mobilization; but, owing
to various factors, there will be a period between the ninth and the thirteenth
day after the order for mobilization has been issued, when the French will have
been able to assemble a greater concentration of forces in the battle area than
the Germans. Certain French Generals have always urged that during this
favourable period France should seize the initiative and launch a full-scale
offensive against Alsace-Lorraine. Should they adopt that strategy, it is clear
that they will not have sufficient forces also to form a great concentration at
the western end of their line. But, of course, if their offensive farther east
proved successful, and they broke right through into Germany, that might compensate
for any temporary success that the Germans met with in north-eastern France.”

“I’ve always
thought,” put in Sir Bindon, “that the paper Winston Churchill wrote on that
subject at the time of the Agadir crisis summed up the possibilities brilliantly.
He was Home Secretary then, so quite outside all this sort of thing, but he was
invited to the secret meeting convened by the Prime Minister to hear the views
of the Service Chiefs. Later he produced a paper stressing these salient
points;”

“There would be
two periods at which the French could count on being equal, or possibly
superior, in numbers to the Germans, and so be in a favourable position to
launch an offensive. First, between the ninth and thirteenth day after
mobilization had begun. But, if they did so then, they would be bound to
encounter more and more fresh German formations as they advanced, and so soon
lose the initiative. Therefore, such an offensive was doomed to failure. He
then forecast that, if the Schlieffen plan was adopted, by the twentieth day
after mobilization the Germans would have forced the line of the Meuse, and
that by the fortieth day they would be fully extended. He added that as their
lines of communication through Belgium lengthened they would have to detach
more and more troops to guard them; and that, therefore, by the fortieth day,
if the French had not dissipated their forces in the meantime, a second period
would arise when they would be equal, or possibly superior, to their enemies.
It was then that they should be able to launch their offensive with the best
hope of success.”

“Brilliant!”
muttered the Duke. “What amazing clarity of mind he possesses. I trust that the
French General Staff were suitably impressed.”

Sir Henry
laughed. “That is not for me to say. However, it gives you the alternative
strategy to an attack through Alsace-Lorraine, and we have good hopes that the
French will adopt it.”

“If they do not,
there is still a way by which the German sweep on Paris could be arrested.”

“I should be
most interested to hear it, Duke.”

“It is to land a
British Army at the French Channel ports, and deploy it to strengthen the
French left.”

Sir Bindon did
not flicker an eyelid, and the General’s laugh rang out quite naturally. They
were both past masters in the art of dissimulation where Britain’s vital
secrets were concerned. For years Sir Henry Wilson had spent all his leaves
cycling up and down the roads of Belgium and northern France, so that he might
know by heart every stream and contour of the country when the time came, as he
was convinced it would, to undertake that very operation. But half its value
would be lost if even a hint of our intentions reached the Germans.

“No, no, Duke!”
he protested. “That would be far beyond our capabilities. Think of the immense
difficulties with which we should be faced in organizing and transporting such
an Expeditionary Force— and the time it would take. The Germans would be half
way to Paris before we could even get started. Besides, how many divisions
could we put into the field? Four—six at the outside. They would be swallowed
up and lost in the general melee, and such a force could not possibly hope to
turn the tide of battle.”

He was using the
very arguments that the Naval Staff had used in 1911, when they had opposed the
War Office plan, and had maintained that the British Army should be retained at
home, as a striking force to be used later against Antwerp or the German coast,
as opportunity offered.

De Richleau
shrugged. “The British have a peculiar genius for organization, General, and in
an emergency are capable of acting with surprising speed; so I believe the
difficulties you refer to could be overcome. In such a case, too, it is not the
size but the high quality of the British Army that would count; and, above all,
the moral effect of such a stroke. Every French soldier would fight with
redoubled determination if he knew that British troops were facing the common
enemy with him.”

Now it was the
Duke who was using the arguments with which Sir Henry had got the better of the
sailors; but Britain’s leading strategist only shook his head again, and said a
trifle brusquely: “Can’t be done, Duke. Take it from me!”

“What use, then,
do you propose to make of the Army? Surely you do not intend to keep it here
indefinitely from fear of invasion?”

The General
grinned. “That’s a leading question, and one that I’m not prepared to answer.
We shall find a use for it in due course, never fear. But it’s going to take
time to build it up to a size at which it would be capable of intervening with
definite effect in a continental war; and to begin with great numbers of
regular officers and N.C.O. s will be needed to train the new levies. As for
invasion, we have little fear of that. Of course, the Navy can’t guarantee us
against enemy landings carried out on dark nights or during periods of fog; but
such raiding parties could have no more than a nuisance value. Within a few
hours they would find themselves cut oft”, and as soon as they ran out of
ammunition would be compelled to surrender. No major force with heavy equipment
would stand an earthly chance of getting ashore and establishing a permanent
foothold. I don’t pretend to know much about the Naval side of the picture, but
it is obvious that the French and British fleets combined will give us
overwhelming superiority at sea.”

For a minute
they were silent while again sipping their brandy. Then De Richleau asked, “What
views do you take of Russia’s prospects of making a deep penetration into
Germany, should she leave her eastern frontier comparatively open in order to
carry out the Schlieffen plan?”

“We’re not
counting very much on that,” Sir Henry replied, setting down his empty glass. “The
snag about Russia is the slowness of her mobilization. It may be several months
before she can bring her great masses face to face with the enemy. In the
meantime it is almost certain that a decision of sorts will have been reached
in the West, and we shall be entering a new phase of the war. In the worst
event, France will have shot her bolt and be on the defensive the wrong side of
Paris—or even out of the war. In the best, the French will be holding the
Germans on a line from Antwerp to Verdun. In either case the Germans should
have ample time to reinforce their eastern front before the Russian steamroller
really gets going.”

“There is, you
know, a second Schlieffen plan,” remarked Sir Bindon quietly. “Before he died,
Count Schlieffen saw the possibility of the Franco-Russian friendship
developing into a firm alliance, so that Germany might be faced with war on two
fronts simultaneously. Even then he would not allocate more than one-eighth of
the German forces to the Russian front; but he placed them skilfully. A glance
at the map will show you the Masurian Lakes. Situated in a vast tract of
impassable marshes, they form a chain sixty miles in length, having the
fortress of Lötzen in its centre, and running north-to-south about thirty miles
inside the East Prussian frontier. The Germans call it the Angerapp Line, and
von Schlieffen directed that the German Army of the East should deploy some way
behind it. He assumed, probably rightly, that the Russians would advance both
to the north and south of the barrier. Should they do so, the Germans would be
well placed to attack each of the invading forces in turn, and neither would be
able to give assistance to the other. In that way it is possible that the
Germans might defeat, or at least inflict a severe check on, forces double the
number of their own. And, of course, the initial effort of Russia against
Germany must be limited by the fact that she also has her Austrian front to
think of.”

De Richleau
nodded, glanced at the General, and asked “What strategy do you think Austria
is likely to adopt?”

“She has two
alternatives. She can stand on the defensive against Russia and make a maximum
effort against Serbia, with the object of putting her smaller enemy right out
of the war before coming to grips with her great antagonist. Or, she can devote
just sufficient troops to her southern front to hold Serbia in check while
launching the bulk of them in an immediate offensive against Russia.
Personally, I think her best course would be to adopt the second policy.” “Why?”

“In the first
place, because the factor of the comparative slowness of the Russian
mobilization enters into matters again. It is estimated that by M plus 18
Russia will have been able to muster on the Austrian front only thirty-one
divisions plus eleven cavalry divisions, against a probable Austrian
concentration of thirty-eight divisions plus ten cavalry divisions. So, you
see, if Austria strikes at once, her initial superiority in numbers should give
her a good prospect of gaining a victory which would paralyse Russian
activities on that front for some considerable time. There is also the factor
that an Austrian offensive against Serbia would be of no value as far as the
great over-all battle is concerned. Whereas an offensive against Russia would
almost certainly have the effect of lightening the Russian pressure on East
Prussia, thus making it unnecessary for the Germans to recall divisions from
France. To sum up, I think the second policy is not only to Austria’s own best
interests, but also the best service she could render to her ally; and it seems
obvious that Germany will press her to adopt it.”

“Your reasoning
is excellent, General,” smiled the Duke. “It seems, then, that there is little
hope of the Russians drawing any appreciable pressure off the French until the
first great clash is over.”

There fell
another pause. Sir Pellinore, who had long since learned the virtues of
refraining from pointless comments when experts were talking, had remained
silent for the past half an hour. He now leaned forward, stubbed out his cigar,
and said:

“Any more
questions, Duke?”

De Richleau
shook his handsome head. “No. I am most grateful to Sir Henry and Sir Bindon
for having discussed these matters so frankly with me. Except in certain minor
respects, the forecast they have given is not very far from that which my own
deductions would have led me to expect. But I considered it important to have
confirmation of my ideas. It would be of further assistance if I could be
supplied with the names of the officers who are expected to play a leading role
in the enemy armies, and such data as is available about them. In certain
circumstances such knowledge might prove very useful.”

“I’ll give you a
line of introduction to Maurice Hankey,” Sir Bindon offered. “He is the
Secretary of the Committee of Imperial Defence, and will be able to provide you
with all the information we possess on such matters.”

“Many thanks,
Sir Bindon. And the sooner I see him the better, as now I have agreed to
undertake this work, that also applies to my setting out for Serbia.”

Five minutes
later the four of them were walking from the entrance of the Club, down its
short garden path to the street. As they reached the pavement, and paused there
to say good-bye before going their several ways, an open motor-car, coming down
the hill from Carlton House Terrace, passed them.

In it were the
German Ambassador, Prince Lichnowsky, who had just left his Embassy, and Herr
Gustav Steinhauer, the Chief of the German Secret Service.