Dennis Wheatley - Duke de Richleau 07 (6 page)

“The ample
evidence of the rise of a new great power could not be disregarded by the rest:
so, henceforth, it became the practice of the others to call Germany into
consultation on all questions affecting the maintenance of peace and
well-being, not only in Europe but wherever her interests might be affected
throughout the world.”

As his cigar was
not properly alight, the statesman applied another match to it before
continuing: “That policy was followed when we entered into an agreement with
the French that, broadly speaking, we would give them a free hand in Morocco
and they would do the same for us in Egypt. Officially, Germany gave that
understanding her blessing; and indeed it was in no way prejudicial to her. But
in Berlin there was already a very active party who were clamouring for German
expansion overseas. Temporarily, they had been overruled, but they determined
to take the first opportunity to provoke an incident.

“Early in 1905
the French sent a mission to Morocco. It acted in such a high-handed manner as
to indicate an intention to treat the country as a French Protectorate, which
would have been contrary to international obligations entered into by the
Treaty of Madrid. The German expansionists saw their chance and brought
pressure to bear on the Kaiser. Wilhelm II’s vanity unfortunately rendered him
a pliant tool. In March of that year he was persuaded to visit Tangiers, and
while there deliver a speech which amounted to an open challenge to the French.
This was followed by a formal demand from the German Government for a new
conference by all the powers who had signed the Madrid Treaty.

“At first, the
French refused; but the French army was in poor shape and the country in no
condition to go to war; while Russia, who might have backed France in other
circumstances, had been rendered temporarily impotent through her recent war
with Japan. Ultimately, the French climbed down and agreed to the conference of
Algeciras. They could not do otherwise; and in the event, British backing
enabled them to more or less save face. But for several months it was ‘touch
and go’, and the uncompromising attitude of the Germans caused both France and
Britain to see the red light.

“Out of this
incident were born three trends of great significance. Firstly, the French
humiliation resulted in such a popular outcry that greater funds were voted for
the army. Important measures were taken for its reorganization and expansion;
and, slowly but surely, France began to prepare to face another war. Secondly,
at the conference Germany had not received by any means the full support she
had expected from Austria-Hungary. In consequence, from then onwards, she
proceeded to court her numerically powerful neighbour, and has since succeeded
in binding the Dual Monarchy closely to her. Thirdly, Britain gave a fresh turn
to her age-old policy. France having now clearly become the second strongest
nation in Europe, we aligned ourselves with her against the strongest, Germany,
in order to maintain the balance of power. Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman was
then Prime Minister. He had inherited Gladstone’s mantle as the leader of the
Little Englanders, so was pledged to a policy of reduction of armaments and the
avoidance of embroilment in foreign wars at almost any cost. But, so strongly
did he feel the danger, that he gave permission for the British General Staff
to enter into conversation with the French.”

Mr. Marlborough
paused impressively. “That was a momentous step. And you will realize from what
I have said, that from the Algeciras conference of 1906 the great nations of
Europe no longer stood alone. They began to coalesce into the two groups that
we now know as the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente.

“The next
European crisis arose in the autumn of 1908. By the Treaty of Berlin, which was
signed in 1878, Austria-Hungary had been awarded a mandate of administration
over the old Turkish provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. You will recall that
the Young Turk revolution occurred in the summer of 1908. Presumably the Dual
Monarchy feared that this might lead to a demand from Constantinople for a re-assertion
of Turkish sovereignty over the two provinces, and she acted to forestall some
move of that kind. In any case, without the least warning, the following autumn
she formally announced the annexation of these territories.”

De Richleau
nodded. “I well recall that episode, sir. But please go on.”

“You will
remember, then, that the great democracies showed instant indignation at this
flagrant violation of the law of nations. The Czar’s government even took
stronger exception to the act. The Turks retaliated by placing an embargo on
Austrian goods, and the Serbians went to the length of mobilizing their army.
As the population of the provinces contained a high percentage of Serbians,
Serbia was the most closely affected; and with her big brother, Russia, behind
her, it looked as if at any moment she might declare war.

“Our Foreign
Secretary, Sir Edward Grey, made it clear that Britain was not prepared to go
to war over a Balkan quarrel, but he gave Russia full diplomatic support, and
both nations demanded a conference. Austria, supported by Germany, refused, and
a bitter wrangle ensued which dragged on into the spring of 1909. At length,
Austria decided to threaten the Serbs with hostilities if they persisted in
their refusal to recognize the annexations. At this point Germany secretly
intervened. She insisted that Russia should herself advise the Serbs to give
way, and do so without first informing the British and French governments.
Should she refuse, Austria would declare war on Serbia with full German
support. That was tantamount to a declaration that both countries would attack
Russia, and under the threat Russia collapsed. It was another triumph for the
German mailed fist; but that, too, had its repercussions. Russia, in her turn,
saw the red light.

“Humbled, as
France had been humbled four years before, she at once began to make great
increases in her armaments, and to construct a new strategic railway system on
her western frontier. Moreover, the humiliation they had both suffered drew the
two countries much more closely together, and from that point their alliance
became firm and dependable.

“Next, it was
Britain’s turn. We were not called on to swallow our pride or fight on some
definite issue, as the others had been. The German menace for us became
apparent in another direction. The Kaiser’s Naval Laws of 1908 were by then
naturally increasing the strength of his High Seas Fleet. Why? Germany had no
far-flung possessions of great worth that she might be called on to defend. Her
fleet increases could only be aimed at us. Despite our government’s policy of
retrenchment, we were faced with the alternative—build more Dreadnoughts or rue
the day when Britain would no longer command the seas. The latter was
unthinkable: so, build we did; and the naval race began. We, too, saw the red
light, awoke from our lethargy, and while still at peace poured out the
millions which now could enable us to meet the German Fleet with overwhelming
strength.

“The Agadir
episode comes next on the list, but the crisis of 1911 is too recent for me to
need to dwell upon it at any length. It is sufficient to recall that Germany
sent a gunboat to Morocco for the ostensible purpose of protecting commercial
interests which later proved to be non-existent, and once again threatened
France with war. Whether she definitely intended to open hostilities remains in
question; but there can be little doubt that Mr. Lloyd George’s speech at the
Mansion House averted the danger. Once he had made it plain that if France were
attacked Britain would fight beside her, the Germans climbed down. Such a
combination was more than they were prepared to tackle, and they in their turn
had to eat humble pie.

“Since that time
Germany has not made use of any incident to threaten the peace of Europe. In
the disputes which led to the two Balkan wars she might easily have found a
pretext to attack her neighbours, had she wished to do so; yet she refrained. I
regard that as most significant. Nearly three years have now elapsed since the
Agadir crisis, so we at least have some reason to hope that the rebuff she
suffered then may have shown
her
the red light
that she has previously displayed to the alarm of other nations.”

The First Lord’s
cigar had gone out again, so he broke off to relight it. Thinking he had
finished what he had to say, De Richleau remarked:

“I have listened
to your admirable summary of events with the greatest interest, sir; but I do
not find your conclusion based on anything very substantial. Germany’s pacific
attitude during the past three years might well be accounted for by her biding
her time while she still further increases her armaments; and the fact that she
did not decide to fight at the time of Agadir is no guarantee that she will not
do so when she finds an occasion that suits her better. The German
expansionists may be temporarily held in check, but I think it would he most
rash to assume that they have abandoned their ambitions.”

Mr. Marlborough
shook his head. “I did not infer that they had, and I regard Agadir only as the
possible turning point in the growth of a strong nation from rash youth to
responsible manhood. It is much more the general pattern of the events I have
just recalled which encourages me to believe that Germany is far less inclined
to draw the sword now than she was formerly. As I have pointed out, at the
beginning of the century she could have attacked any of the other great powers
singly and had a fair chance of overwhelming them in a short, sharp war which
would have cost her little. But that is no longer so. Her own blackmailing
tactics have awakened her potential enemies to their danger. France has
modernized her armies; Russia has enormously increased hers, while adding to their
mobility; and Britain now lies secure behind the most powerful fleet she has
ever possessed in her long history. More, those same sabre-rattling tactics
have driven the three nations into a mighty alliance. If Germany fights one,
she must now fight all. Italy’s position in the Mediterranean renders her so
vulnerable to sea-power that she would be crazy to join our enemies. That
leaves Austria-Hungary, seething with internal race hatreds, as Germany’s only
certain ally. Strong as she is, how could she hope to emerge victorious from
such a conflict?”

“I believe,” replied
the Duke, “it is generally accepted among the higher General Staff that in the
event of war Germany would adopt the Schlieffen plan. If she did, there is a
possibility that she might force France to capitulate in six weeks. Russia
would then find herself faced with the combined forces of Germany and
Austria-Hungary, and she, in her turn, might be defeated.”

“I agree with
your appreciation of probable German strategy, but I think the Germans would
find France a harder nut to crack than they imagine. In any case, the conquest
of Russia presents immense difficulties, and once Britain has entered on a war
she is not inclined lightly to give it up. So, in no circumstances could
Germany hope to achieve swift and inexpensive victory. At best, it could prove
for her only a long and costly struggle, terminating in an agreed peace, from
which
she
-would
gain little of permanent value, “

“That’s true
enough!” boomed Sir Pellinore. “Now let’s hear what this young fire-eater has
to say.”

“One moment!”
The First Lord held up a plump hand. “I have not yet quite done. I was about to
add that never, in my experience, has Europe shown a greater inclination
towards maintaining a lasting peace. I disclose no vital secret when I tell you
that, so marked has this become, this year I carried the full naval estimates
through the Cabinet only with considerable difficulty. I stuck to my guns
because I would rather be safe than sorry; but the majority of my colleagues held
that such a high expenditure on armaments could no longer be justified. That
the French share this opinion is clear from the strenuous efforts now being
made in the Chamber of Deputies to modify the Three Years’ Military Service
Law. This year, for the first time since 1870, the French President dined at
the German Embassy in Paris; and this year, for the first time since 1895, we
have accepted an invitation for a British Squadron to visit Kiel during the
regatta week. All this, of course, is entirely due to the new spirit of reason
and conciliation which Germany has been showing on all international problems;
and that the change of attitude is not simply a mask to cover evil intentions,
she has given reasonable proof. It is now two years since she made any increase
in her naval building programme. Now, Duke, tell me, if you can, what reasons
you can have for believing that we are living in a fool’s paradise?”

“I admit that I
find myself much shaken by your arguments,” De Richleau replied, “and I can
speak only of possibilities in a small corner of this vast canvas that you have
surveyed. It depends whether you consider it likely that all Europe might be
set aflame by a fresh incident in the Balkans.”

“It is a
possibility, but in the present circumstances I consider it unlikely. The Great
Powers succeeded in localizing the two Balkan wars of 1912 and 1913, and if the
present spirit of goodwill continues there appears an even better chance that
they would succeed again.”

The Duke shook
his head. “It was not merely a third squabble among the Balkan states that I
had in mind. I was thinking of a crisis similar to that which arose in 1908,
when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina; only this time one which would
culminate in Serbia actually opening hostilities against the Dual-Monarchy.”