Dragonfire (36 page)

With that doctrine in mind and Russian President Gorbunov’s initiative stalled, Tao was considering at what level a strike should be made in order to achieve his goal. He needed a quick
end to the conflict, preferably one which would bring the international community back on side. It was known as
yizhan ershang
, winning a victory with one strike. The question facing Tao was
where should he deliver that blow.

Kilo
-class submarine 0821, type 877EKM, Bay of Bengal

Local time: 0147 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 2017 Monday 7 May 2007

The sonar operator
on the Chinese
Kilo
-class submarine picked up the signature of a
Delhi
-class destroyer, but could not determine its exact identification
as the
Bombay
. At 0207, the submarine came close enough to the surface to raise the satellite communication (SATCOM) mast, timed to catch signals from the Dong Feng Hong 6 Chinese military
satellite passing overhead. The satellite was beaming down a constant brief message which was picked up by all Chinese military shipping and at the Menwith Hill Station in Britain and Pine Gap in
Australia. Both were American-controlled facilities, run by the highly secretive National Security Agency (NSA), which eavesdropped on communications throughout the world. The order came as just
one two-syllable word,
Houzi
, translating as ‘monkey’.

Almost a thousand people worked at Pine Gap, near Alice Springs, intercepting telephone, radio and data links as well as satellite communications. The computer room alone was 5,600 square metres
and there were more than twenty other service and support buildings. Yet when the Chinese satellite instruction made its debut in the massive Western listening station machine, there was nothing
anyone could do to know what it meant. Only the senior Chinese army staff knew, together with the submarine commanders. Not even the communications officers who sent the message from the northern
naval headquarters in Tsing Tao were aware of the significance of the signal.

It was luck more than anything that submarine 0821 had to surface to pick up the twice-daily signal less than an hour after identifying the
Delhi
-class destroyer. It meant the Chinese
could track the Indian warship for a minimum amount of time, lessening the risk of detection. The commander took the submarine just below the surface again, but within periscope depth. He verified
the destroyer’s position on the sonar and headed for the kill. Because it was dark and visibility was low, he decided to confirm the target with Electronic Surveillance Measures. He surfaced
again using the ESM mast to absorb the electronic spectrum of the ship, taking in the destroyer’s navigation radar, encrypted tactical communications and satellite communications. The data
was cross-checked on the
Kilo
’s tactical weapons systems computer, giving the commander a near certain classification of the target. He verified that no unique signature had ever been
taken of the Indian
Delhi
-class destroyers
Bangalore
and
Mysore
, deducing that his target must be one of those two ships.

She was sailing south-west on a course towards the Andaman Islands, her speed just under 20 knots, probably slowed because of the unsettled weather. There would be about four hundred men on
board the ship, which was part of the cream of India’s fleet. Unlike the Indian-designed and built Arjun battle tank or Light Combat indigenous fighter aircraft, the
Delhi
was
considered a world-class warship and she sailed like a dream.

When he was 440 metres from the target, the submarine commander opted to go for an ‘eyes only’ attack using the periscope. Unlike the Americans, the Indians’ skills at
antisubmarine warfare were limited. The
Kilo
had been tracking the destroyer for more than an hour undetected. The two Westland Sea King helicopters remained strapped to the deck, indicating
that the crew was not even suspecting an enemy presence.

When the submarine was 30 degrees on the bow of the target, the torpedo doors were opened. He would create a classic gyro-angle shot with a spread of three torpedoes to counteract the target
speeding up or suddenly turning away. He waited until he was 900 metres from the destroyer, then he released the first torpedo at a bearing of 90 degrees to the target course. The second torpedo
was fired at 5 degrees ahead of the bearing, and the third at 10 degrees behind.

As the 533mm torpedoes sped towards the target, the Indians had less than thirty seconds to react, which is why the commander had taken his vessel so dangerously close. The torpedoes did have a
range of eight nautical miles and were wire-guided with active and passive homing at a speed of 40 knots. But the
Kilo
commander trusted little of that. He wanted to sight his target and
fire.

The first torpedo, with an impact fuse, struck the destroyer aft, cutting the engines almost immediately. The second, with a proximity fuse, blew a hole amidships, sending uncontrollable litres
of water streaming into the ship. If the destroyer had not been slowed immediately by the explosions, the third torpedo would have missed. As it was it clipped the propeller casing, blowing another
hole in the stern. This decided the
Bangalore
’s fate. Within minutes the ship was sinking. She was lost with all hands. The only distress signal received was sent out after the second
impact. Then the radio went dead.

In Zhongnanhai, President Tao was told of the success and hoped he had delivered China her victory with one strike, her
yizhan ershang
.

Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi, India

Local time: 0300 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 2130 Monday 7 May 2007

‘If we continue
our ceasefire and show restraint, China will be condemned by the international community in such a way that it will never recover,’ said the
Foreign Minister Prabhu Purie.

‘Whatever it does, China will recover,’ said Hari Dixit, unable to contain his anger. ‘China gunned down civilians in Tiananmen Square and within a year the Western leaders
were kissing the asses of the men who ordered it. Now China is sinking our ships in our ocean, occupying our land, killing Buddhists in Tibet. If you are suggesting India surrenders now, you can
bloody well resign.’

‘No, Prime Minister,’ Purie said firmly. ‘I am merely saying that we should wait a few hours and get unequivocal international support. Then we can do whatever we damn well
like.’

Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

Local time: 0630 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 2230 Monday 7 May 2007

‘He’s British,’ said
Tang Siju. ‘He confessed after we gave him truth drugs. It is impossible for even the best-trained man to resist giving away
his nationality.’

‘Is he a mercenary?’

‘He is a member of the Special Boat Squadron. I suspect he was following orders which would have had the approval of the British government.’

‘Comrade Song,’ said Tao, turning to his Foreign Minister, ‘what do you make of this?’

‘The only motivation I can see for it is to create a power balance against us in South-East Asia. The British commando probably came from HMS
Ocean
, which is in the Bay of Bengal on
exercises under the Five Power Defence Agreement. Technically, the Cocos Islands belong to Myanmar. Our lease on them has not been officially declared.’

‘You’re waffling, Foreign Minister,’ said Tang. ‘Britain is an American ally and the United States is intent on containing the power of China. We must strike back
immediately and effectively. We have a
Song
-class submarine which has been following the
Ocean
task force for two days now.’ Tang looked at his watch. ‘The satellite is
passing overhead in fifteen minutes. I suggest we give the commander his orders.’

Briefing

Taiwan

The island of Taiwan, 160 kilometres off the eastern Chinese coast, was governed by the Japanese from the 1890s and Taiwanese residents were given Japanese citizenship. For two
years after the end of the Second World War it came under mainland Chinese control. Then, in 1949, when the government was overthrown by Mao Zedong’s Communist Party, Taiwan became a
stronghold for the fleeing nationalist forces. Taiwan made a remarkable development into a modern society under a mixture of military rule and American benevolence. Taiwan received a jolt of
reality in the 1970s when the United States began its rapprochement with China, eventually cutting relations with Taiwan in favour of the mainland. The island continued to thrive. Martial law was
lifted in 1987, the first ever direct presidential election was held in 1996 and its foreign reserves became among the highest in the world. Links with the United States remained strong. Taiwan
remained protected by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. The act was designed to ‘help maintain peace, security and stability in the Western Pacific’. It also maintained the ‘capacity
of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan’. It was
deliberately woolly about America’s obligation to go to war with China over Taiwan, but it left the option open.

Presidential Palace, Taipei, Taiwan

Local time: 0700 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 2300 Monday 7 May 2007

President Lin Chung-ling
of Taiwan was born in the United States while his father was the Ambassador there in the 1960s. He was given the best American education and
even held a United States passport, which he had to give up when he entered politics. He considered himself as much American as Chinese and certainly was more at home in the corridors of the State
Department and the White House than he would be in Zhongnanhai and the Great Hall of the People.

The events of the past few days had thrown up an opportunity which Lin was convinced he could not let pass. For sixty years Taiwan had struggled in isolation, risen to the challenges and created
one of the most modern Asian societies. Even the poorest Taiwanese were generations ahead of the Chinese peasants and right now a vulnerable China posed an enormous opportunity for Taiwan.

Lin had to strike while China was weak. It was pinned down in Tibet. The incursion into Arunachal Pradesh was as foolhardy as its invasion of Vietnam in 1979. International support had already
been slipping from it. The decision to sink the Indian destroyer would bring condemnation from every quarter. Very rarely did such a succession of events come together in such a way.

President Lin Chung-ling had been elected with a landslide majority after he said he would attempt to see himself a citizen of Taiwan as a recognized independent country within his lifetime.
Never had he dreamt the opportunity would come so quickly. He desk-topped his personal secretary to bring in the BBC film crew which was waiting outside to interview him. He had decided to make his
announcement of Taiwan’s independence on BBC rather than CNN to distance himself from his American benefactors. But it would be in the contemporary manner, announcing it to the world on live
television.

The Oval Office, The White House, Washington, DC

Local time: 1830 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 2330 Monday 7 May 2007

‘They’ve hit the
British frigate
Grafton
,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘Two torpedoes. She’s still afloat. More than twenty men
dead.’

‘What with?’ said John Hastings.

‘
Song
-class submarine, sir. She was damaged by depth charges and surfaced. The captain of HMS
Ocean
had to issue orders forbidding the men to open fire on the crew, they were
so angry.’

‘
Song
-class. Any significance?’

‘It carries cruise missiles which it can fire from underwater – although the
Grafton
was hit with torpedoes. It’s a diesel-electric vessel and we doubt the missiles have
nuclear warheads. The
Song
is Chinese, broadly with eighties technology. The main point, of course, is that the Chinese brought it way out of the usual theatre and used it
effectively.’

‘So how many more submarines do they have over there?’

‘We don’t know, John,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘We just have no idea.’

The President’s personal secretary interrupted on the intercom. ‘Joan Holden is on her way from State. She’s suggested you get Alvin Jebb in from across the river, and tune in
the BBC World Service. I’m changing the channels for you now, sir.’

Hastings moved away from his desk to the sofas in the middle of the room, just as the BBC interrupted its own breaking news report about HMS
Grafton
to go to its interview with President
Lin of Taiwan. Because of the short notice given for the interview, the correspondent was only the local BBC stringer in Taipei. Unknown to the viewers he had already been told he had a maximum
on-air time of two minutes thirty seconds. The editor of the day even questioned going to Taiwan for an unquantifiable announcement, believing the viewers wouldn’t understand the link with
the China–India conflict. At one stage, when it was thought the BBC would also have a live interview with the emotional mother of one of the naval officers killed on
Grafton
, the live
segment from Taipei was to be cancelled. But a senior editor stepped in curtly. ‘Our job is to inform and report breaking news. It is not to make people weep. Stick with Taipei.’

BBC
: President Lin, thank you for joining us. As time is short, could you firstly give us your reaction to the Chinese naval offensive in the Bay of Bengal? British and
Indian naval ships have been sunk, and there are even unconfirmed reports that a Chinese nuclear-armed submarine is steaming towards the Indian coast.

Lin
: Yes. In the past few hours, China has forced me to make the most difficult decision of both my personal and political life. As the democratically elected President
of Taiwan, I feel that we can no longer go on pulling the diplomatic wool over all our eyes. Unification with China, either under the mainland’s system of dictatorship or our own system of
democracy, will never happen in the foreseeable future. A compromise reunion, such as has been tried in Hong Kong, would not work and, more importantly, the Taiwanese people would not tolerate it.
The brutal repression of Chinese citizens in Tibet, be they Tibetan or Han Chinese, the invasion of India, a democratic neighbouring power, the exploitation of Myanmar or Burma for military means,
upsetting the stability of South-East Asia, and the threatening naval offensive in the Bay of Bengal – these are not actions which the Taiwanese people can support. We abhor them.