In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan (52 page)

15.
Galula,
Counterinsurgency Warfare,
p. 38.

16.
Ann Hironaka,
Neverending Wars: The International Community, Weak States, and the Perpetuation of Civil War
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2005); Fearon and Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,” pp. 75–90. On the importance of building institutions, see Roland Paris,
At War’s End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004).

17.
Stathis N. Kalyvas,
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006), p. 218.

18.
Nelson Manrique, “The War for the Central Sierra,” in Steve J. Stern, ed.,
Shining and Other Paths: War and Society in Peru, 1980–1995
(Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1998), p. 204.

19.
Jeffrey Race,
War Comes to Long An: Revolutionary Conflict in a Vietnamese Province
(Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1973), p. 199.

20.
Richard Berman,
Revolutionary Organization: Institution-Building within the People’s Liberation Armed Forces
(Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath, 1974), pp. 4–-5

21.
Adrian H. Jones and Andrew R. Molnar,
Internal Defense against Insurgency: Six Cases
(Washington, DC: Center for Research in Social Systems, 1966), p. 47.

22.
Max Weber, “Politics as a Vocation,” in H. H. Gerth and C. Wright Mills, eds.,
From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1958), p. 78.

23.
Jane Stromseth, David Wippman, and Rosa Brooks,
Can Might Make Rights? Building the Rule of Law After Military Interventions
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006), pp. 137–140.

24.
William R. Easterly,
The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001); Robert E. Klitgaard,
Institutional Adjustment and Adjusting to Institutions
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 1995); Nicolas van de Walle,
African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979–1999
(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001); Judith Tendler,
Good Government in the Tropics
(Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997).

25.
Mohammed Ayoob, “State Making, State Breaking, and State Failure,” in Chester Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds.,
Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict
(Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 2001), p. 130.

26.
Hironaka,
Neverending Wars,
pp. 42–46.

27.
Stromseth, Wippman, and Brooks,
Can Might Make Rights?
pp. 137–40; Francis Fukuyama,
State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century
(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), pp. 92–118; Ayoob, “State Making, State Breaking, and State Failure.”

28.
Fearon and Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,” pp. 75–76.

29.
Hironaka,
Neverending Wars,
p. 45.

30.
See, for example, Jeffrey Herbst, “Responding to State Failure in Africa,”
International Security,
vol. 2I, no. 3, Winter 1996/1997, pp. 120–44.

31.
David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar,
Somalia: Nation in Search of a State
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1987); I. M. Lewis,
A Modern History of Somalia: Nation and State in the Horn of Africa
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988); Michael W. Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis,
Making War and Building Peace
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006), pp. 145–61.

32.
Patrick Brogan,
World Conflicts
(Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 1998), p. 99.

33.
Hussein M. Adam, “Somalia: A Terrible Beauty Being Born?” in I. William Zartman, ed.,
Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority
(Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995), p. 78.

34.
Richard J. Kessler,
Rebellion and Repression in the Philippines
(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989), p. 140.

35.
William Chapman,
Inside the Philippine Revolution
(New York: W. W. Norton, 1987).

36.
Samir Makdisi and Richard Sadaka, “The Lebanese Civil War, 1975–1990,” in Collier and Sambanis, eds.,
Understanding Civil War, Vol.
2, pp. 59–85.

37.
Michael Clodfelter,
Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference
(Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1992).

38.
Thomas A. Marks,
Maoist Insurgency since Vietnam
(Portland, OR: Frank Cass, 1996), p. 261.

39.
Crawford Young,
Politics in the Congo: Decolonization and Independence
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1965), p. 56.

40.
William Minter,
Apartheid’s Contras
(Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Zed Books, 1994); Leonid L. Fituni, “The Collapse of the Socialist State: Angola and the Soviet Union,” in I. William Zartman, ed.,
Collapsed States,
pp. 143–56.

41.
Mwangi S. Kimenyi and Njuguna S. Ndung’u, “Sporadic Ethnic Violence: Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full-Blown Civil War?” in Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis, eds.,
Understanding Civil War, Vol. 1: Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005), pp. 123–56.

42.
See, for example, Stephen Saideman,
The Ties That Divide: Ethnic Politics, Foreign Policy, and International Conflict
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2001); Saideman, “Explaining the International Relations of Secessionist Conflicts,”
International Organization,
vol. 51, no. 4, 1997, pp. 721–53; Tatu Vanhanen, “Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism: A Comparative Analysis,”
Journal of Peace Research,
vol. 36, no. 1, 1999, pp. 55–73; Chaim Kaufmann, “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars,”
International Security,
vol. 20, no. 4, Spring 1996, pp. 136–75.

43.
Donald L. Horowitz,
Ethnic Groups in Conflict
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).

44.
Kaufmann, “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars,” pp. 136–75.

45.
There is no definitive assessment of ethnic breakdowns in Afghanistan, since there has been no census since 1979. Even the 1979 census was partial and incomplete. For estimates, see, for example, Central Intelligence Agency,
The World Factbook 2007
(Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2006).

46.
On Pashtuns and the Taliban, see Olivier Roy,
Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan,
2nd ed. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ahmed Rashid,
Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia
(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000); William Maley, ed.,
Fundamentalism Reborn? Afghanistan and the Taliban
(New York: New York University Press, 2001).

47.
Gary Berntsen and Ralph Pezzullo,
Jawbreaker: The Attack on Bin Laden and Al Qa’ida
(New York: Crown Publishers, 2005), p. 219.

48.
Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason, “Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan,”
Orbis,
vol. 51, no. 1, Winter 2007, p. 86. Also see Thomas H. Johnson, “Afghanistan’s Post-Taliban Transition: The State of State-Building After War,”
Central Asian Survey,
vol. 25, nos. 1–2, March-June 2006, pp. 1–26.

49.
Johnson, “Afghanistan’s Post-Taliban Transition,” pp. 7, 14.

50.
The election results are from Afghanistan’s Joint Electoral Management Body.

51.
nternational Republican Institute,
Afghanistan: Election Day Survey
(Washington, DC: International Republican Institute, October 9, 2004).

52.
U.S. State Department,
Afghanistan: Closer to One Nation than a House Divided
(Washington, DC: Office of Research, U.S. Department of State, January 29, 2007), pp. 1, 3.

53.
Memorandum from the Rendon Group to J5 CENTCOM Strategic Effects, “Polling Results—Afghanistan Omnibus May 2007,” June 15, 2007.

54.
Asia Foundation,
Voter Education Planning Survey: Afghanistan 2004 National Elections
(San Francisco: Asia Foundation, 2004).

55.
Asia Foundation,
A Survey of the Afghan People: Afghanistan in 2006
(San Francisco: Asia Foundation, 2006).

56.
Author interview with Ambassador James Dobbins, July 11, 2007.

57.
S. Frederick Starr, “Sovereignty and Legitimacy in Afghan Nation-Building,” in Francis Fukuyama, ed.,
Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq
(Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), pp. 107–24; Starr,
U.S. Afghanistan Policy: It’s Working
(Washington, DC: Central Asia—Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University, 2004).

58.
On ideology and insurgency, see, for example, Michael F. Brown and Eduardo Fernández,
War of Shadows: The Struggle for Utopia in the Peruvian Amazon
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), p. 98.

59.
Military Teachings: For the Preparation of Mujahideen,
n.d. The Taliban manual was leaked to the press in 2007. See, for example, Isambard Wilkinson, “How To Be A Jihadi: Taliban’s Training Secrets,”
Daily Telegraph
(London), August 16,2007.

60.
Trinquier,
Modern Warfare,
p. 43; Galula,
Counterinsurgency Warfare,
p. 31.

61.
As David Galula argues: “[C]onventional operations by themselves have at best no more effect than a fly swatter. Some guerrillas are bound to be caught, but new recruits will replace them as fast as they are lost.” Galula,
Counterinsurgency Warfare,
p. 72.

62.
Stromseth, Wippman, and Brooks,
Can Might Make Rights?
pp. 137–40.

Chapter Ten

1.
Gary C. Schroen,
First In: An Insider’s Account of How the CIA Spearheaded the War on Terror in Afghanistan
(New York: Ballantine Books, 2005), p. 358.

2.
Amrullah Saleh,
Strategy of Insurgents and Terrorists in Afghanistan
(Kabul, Afghanistan: National Directorate of Security, May 2006).

3.
German Federal Ministry of the Interior (2004), p. 6; Asian Development Bank and World Bank,
Afghanistan: Preliminary Needs Assessment for Recovery and Reconstruction
(Kabul: Asian Development Bank and World Bank, January 2002), p. 7.

4.
German Federal Foreign Office and Federal Ministry of the Interior,
Assistance in Rebuilding the Police Force
(Bonn: Federal Foreign Office and Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2004), p. 6.

5.
Author interview with Jochen Rieso, Training Branch, German Project for Support of the Police in Afghanistan, June 27, 2004.

6.
Author interview with senior U.S. official, White House, September 2004. This view was corroborated by multiple interviews with U.S. officials in Washington and Afghanistan in 2004 and 2005.

7.
German Federal Foreign Office and Federal Ministry of the Interior,
Assistance in Rebuilding the Police Force,
p. 3.

8.
Letter from Donald Rumsfeld to Jerry Bremer and General John Abizaid (cc to General Dick Myers, Paul Wolfowitz, and Doug Feith), Assistance from Germany, September 29, 2003.

9.
Author interviews with members of DynCorp International, Kabul and Gardez, June 2004 and November 2005.

10.
Author interview with Interior Minister Ali Jalali, September 4, 2007.

11.
Author interview with Lieutenant General David Barno, September 4, 2007.

12.
Author interviews with senior U.S. Defense Department official involved in the discussions, August 21 and October 4, 2007.

13.
Author interview with Nora Bensahel, May 7, 2008.

14.
Author interview with Major General Robert Durbin, January 3, 2008.

15.
Central Intelligence Agency,
CIA World Factbook 2007
(Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2006). The list included small, poor countries such as East Timor, Djibouti, and Liberia.