Unthinkable (72 page)

23.
 Lolita C. Baldor, “U.S. Blaming Iran for Persian Gulf Cyberattacks,” Associated Press, October 12, 2012; Dan De Luce, “Cyber War on Iran Has Only Just Begun,” Agence France-Presse, July 13, 2012; Siobhan Gorman and Julian Barnes, “Iran Blamed for Cyberattacks,”
Wall Street Journal
, October 13–14, 2012, p. A1; Nicole Perlroth, “In Cyberattack on Saudi Firm, U.S. Sees Iran Firing Back,”
New York Times
, October 27, 2012; David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Rise Is Seen in Cyberattacks Targeting U.S. Infrastructure,”
New York Times
, July 26, 2012.

24.
 Charlie Savage and Scott Shane, “U.S. Accuses Iranians of Plotting to Kill Saudi Envoy,”
New York Times
, October 11, 2011; Crist,
The Twilight War
, pp. 562–66; Benjamin Weiser, “Man Pleads Guilty in Plot to Murder a Saudi Envoy,”
New York Times
, October 17, 2012.

25.
 For instance, see Jamsheed K. Choksy, “Are the Mullahs Losing Their Grip?”
World Affairs
175, No. 1 (May/June 2012): 17–24.

26.
 Charles Kurzman,
The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran
(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2004), pp. 121–22.

27.
 See for instance, Crist,
The Twilight War
, p. 552; Nazila Fathi, “Relatives of Kurds Executed in Iran Are Denied the Remains, and 2 Are Arrested,”
New York Times
, May 11, 2010; Michael Rubin, “Domestic Threats to Iranian Stability: Khuzistan and Baluchistan,”
Middle East Forum
, November 13, 2005, available at
http://www.meforum.org/788/domestic-threats-to-iranian-stability-khuzistan
.

28.
 See Crist,
The Twilight War
, pp., 404–415; Pollack,
The Persian Puzzle
, pp. 282–86, 298–302.

29.
 See Crist,
The Twilight War
, pp. 82–83, 372–79, 556.

30.
 Much of the following section draws heavily from Kenneth M. Pollack and Ray Takeyh, “Doubling Down on Tehran,”
Washington Quarterly
34, No. 4 (Fall 2011): 7–21.

31.
 Peter James Spielmann, “UN Report Finds Iran's Crackdown Expanding,” Associated Press, October 11, 2012.

32.
 “Why They Left: Stories of Iranian Activists in Exile,” Human Rights Watch, December 13, 2012, available at
http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/iran1212webwcover_0_0.pdf
, p. 1.

33.
 “EU Expands Sanctions Against Iran,” Associated Press, October 11, 2011.

34.
 Meghan L. O'Sullivan,
Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2002), pp. 291–92.

1.
 Amy Tiebel, “Israel Plunged into Unprecedented Debate About War,” Associated Press, August 14, 2012.

2.
 On U.S. government and intelligence sources confirming Israel's possession of nuclear weapons, see the sources in chapter 2, note 32.

3.
 “Jericho 1/2/3,”
MissileThreat.com
, available at
http://missilethreat.com/missiles/jericho-123/
.

4.
 David A. Fulghum, “Why Syria's Air Defenses Failed to Detect Israelis,” Aviation Week blog, October 3, 2007, available at
http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.aspx?plckBlogId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckcontroller=blog&plckscript=blogscript&plckelementid=blogdest&plckblogpage=blogviewpost&plckpostid=blog%253A27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7post%253A2710d024-5eda-416c-b117-ae6d649146cd
; David A. Fulghum, “Israel Used Electronic Attack in Air Strike Against Syrian Mystery Target,”
Aviation Week & Space Technology
, October 8, 2007; Eli Lake, “Israel's Secret Iran Attack Plan: Electronic Warfare,”
Daily Beast
, November 16, 2011, available at
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/16/israel-s-secret-iran-attack-plan-electronic-warfare.html
.

5.
 “F-16I Sufa (Storm),” Global Security, available at
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/f-16i.htm
, downloaded January 18, 2013; “Israel's Security Chiefs Welcome Arrival of New F-16I Jets,”
Haaretz
, February 19, 2004.

6.
 Anshel Pfeffer, “Israel Could Strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities, but It Won't Be Easy,”
Haaretz
, February 20, 2012. For a good summary of the refueling problem, see Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, “Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 14, 2009, available at
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf
, pp. 70–71.

7.
 David Alexander, “U.S. Nears $10 Billion Arms Deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE,” Reuters, April 19, 2013.

8.
 There are occasional rumors that Israel has secured permission to have its aircraft refuel at Azerbaijani bases, but this arrangement seems unlikely. Azerbaijan is in the wrong place, so Israeli aircraft would have to covertly fly to Azerbaijan (across Turkey, Armenia, Russia, and/or Georgia) and then strike Iranian targets. This plan would not necessarily mitigate Israel's problems. It is also unlikely that the Azerbaijani government would have any interest due to the problems it would create for its internal politics and its foreign policy. See Thomas Grove, “Insight: Azerbaijan Eyes Aiding Israel Against Iran,” Reuters, September 30, 2012; Lada Evgrashina and Margarita Antidze, “Israel Denies It Has Access to Azerbaijan Air Bases,” Reuters, April 23, 2012.

9.
 “Natanz (Kashan),” GlobalSecurity.org, available at
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/natanz-fep.htm
, downloaded January 18, 2013; Whitney Raas and Austin Long, “Osiraq Redux: Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities,”
International Security
31, No. 4 (Spring 2007): 18.

10.
 Todd Lindeman and Bill Webster, “Hardened Targets,”
Washington Post
, March 1, 2012.

11.
 Raas and Long, “Osirak Redux?” pp. 18–20.

12.
 “Attacking Iran: Up in the Air,”
Economist
, February 25, 2012, available at
http://middleeast.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=middleeast&cdn=newsissues&tm=20&f=00&tt=2&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//www.economist.com/node/21548228
.

13.
 Mark Perry, “The Entebbe Option,”
Foreign Policy
online, September 27, 2012, available at
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/27/the_entebbe_option
.

14.
 David Alexander, “U.S. Nears $10 Billion Arms Deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE,” Reuters, April 19, 2013.

15.
 Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, “Analyzing the Impact of Preventive Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 10, 2012, available at
http://csis.org/files/publication/120906_Iran_US_Preventive_Strikes.pdf
, p. 81.

16.
 Ephraim Kam, “An Attack on Iran: The Morning After,”
Strategic Assessment
15, No. 1 (April 2012): 20; “Ex-Mossad Chief: Ahmadinejad Is Israel's Greatest Gift,”
Haaretz
, August 20, 2008.

17.
 Cordesman and Toukan, “Analyzing the Impact of Preventive Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities,” p. 7.

18.
 For Halevy, see “Ex-Mossad Chief: Ahmadinejad Is Israel's Greatest Gift”; for Eitan, see Ronen Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?”
New York Times Magazine
, January 25, 2012.

19.
 Amos Harel, “Israeli Strike Would Only Delay Iran's Nuclear Program by Two Years,”
Haaretz
, August 3, 2012; Stephen Heintz, William Luers, William Miller, Thomas Pickering, Jim Walsh, Frank Wisner, et al., “Weighing Benefits and Costs of Military Action Against Iran,” Iran Project, September 2012, p. 31.

20.
 Karl Vick, “Can Israel Stop Iran's Nuke Effort?”
Time
, February 6, 2012.

21.
 Brian Fung, “The Case for Letting Iran (Almost) Build a Bomb,”
Atlantic
, February 29, 2012.

22.
 David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Jacqueline Shire, “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran's Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not,” Institute for Science and International Security, August 7, 2008, p. 7.

23.
 Ibid., p. 1.

24.
 David E. Sanger, James Glanz, and Jo Becker, “Around the World, Distress Over Iran,”
New York Times
, November 28, 2010. For a similar statement by Secretary Gates, see Paul Richter, “Gates Warns Against Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities,”
Los Angeles Times
, April 16, 2009.

25.
 “Remarks by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta at the Saban Center,” December 2, 2011, transcript available at
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4937
.

26.
 “Interview with General Martin Dempsey,”
Fareed Zakaria GPS
, CNN, February 19, 2012, transcript available at
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1202/19/fzgps.01.html
.

27.
 Albright, Brannan, and Shire, “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran's Gas Centrifuge Program?” p. 3.

28.
 “Interview with Ehud Barak,”
Fareed Zakaria GPS
, CNN, November 20, 2011, transcript available at
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1111/20/fzgps.01.html
; Joel Greenburg, “Barak Says Time Running Out for Action Against Iran's Nuclear Program,”
Washington Post
,
February 2, 2012. See also Amos Yadlin, “Israel's Last Chance to Strike Iran,”
New York Times
, February 29, 2012.

29.
 Press reports have even begun to claim that since Fordow became operational in the fall of 2012, Israel has been forced to scrap plans for an air strike altogether. “Report: Israel Forced to Change Iran Strike Tactics,”
Jerusalem Post
online, November 11, 2012, available at
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=291295
.

30.
 Bennett Ramberg, “Looking Back: Osirak and Its Lessons for Iran Policy,”
Arms Control Today
42, No. 4 (May 2012): 40. See also Richard K. Betts, “The Osirak Fallacy,”
National Interest
, No. 83 (Spring 2006): 22; Dan Reiter, “Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear Programs and the ‘Success' at Osiraq,”
Nonproliferation Review
12, No. 2 (July 2005): 355–71.

31.
 Ramberg, “Looking Back,” pp. 40–42.

32.
 Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, “Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks,”
International Security
36, No. 1 (Summer 2011): 130.

33.
 Ibid., pp. 129 and 102.

34.
 Elliott Abrams, “The Grounds for an Israeli Attack,”
World Affairs
175, No. 1 (May/June 2012): 26–27.

35.
 Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O'Hanlon,
Winning Ugly: NATO's War to Save Kosovo
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), pp. 4–5; Stephen T. Hosmer,
Why Milosevic Decided to Settle When He Did
(Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2001); Robert Pape,
Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War
(Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996).

36.
 Braut-Hegghammer, “Revisiting Osirak”; “The DCI Special Advisor Report on Iraq's WMD,” CIA, 2004,
https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/index.html
; Hal Brands and David Palkki, “Saddam, Israel, and the Bomb: Nuclear Alarmism Justified?,”
International Security
36, No. 1 (Summer 2011): 133–66.

37.
 William J. Broad, “How to Help Iran Build a Bomb,”
New York Times
, September 28, 2012.

38.
 Ephraim Kam, “An Attack on Iran: The Morning After,”
Strategic Assessment
15, No. 1 (April 2012): 18.

39.
 My assessment is based on decades of conversations with senior Israeli officials (serving and retired) on this subject. However, they also typically make the point in print whenever they write about these matters. See for instance, Kam, “An Attack on Iran,” pp. 16–19; and Amos Yadlin, “Israel's Last Chance to Strike Iran,”
New York Times
, February 29, 2012.

40.
 Yadlin, “Israel's Last Chance to Strike Iran.”

41.
 Kam, “An Attack on Iran,” p. 18.

42.
 As one example, see Louis Charbonneau, “Iran Slams Anti–Nuclear Weapons Treaty as Discriminatory,” Reuters, November 5, 2012.

43.
 Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran Accuses IAEA of Passing Nuclear Secrets to Israel,” Reuters, September 23, 2012.

44.
 Ibid.

45.
 “Iran Guard Commander: ‘Nothing Will Remain' of Israel if It Attacks,” Associated Press, September 16, 2012; ibid.

46.
 “Any Attack on Iran May Lead Iran to Withdrawal from NPT: Envoy,” Reuters, November 30, 2012.

47.
 On the case for penalizing countries that withdraw from the NPT if they violate their Safeguards agreement, see George Bunn and John Rhinelander, “The Right to Withdraw from the NPT: Article X Is Not Unconditional,”
Disarmament Diplomacy,
No. 79 (April/May 2005), available at
http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd79/79gbjr.htm
.

48.
 See also William Maclean, “Iran Raid Likely to Drag in U.S. and Hurt Global Economy,” Reuters, February 5, 2012.