Unthinkable (73 page)

49.
 See for instance, “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, September 2012,” Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, September 20, 2012, available at
http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2012/p45ejoint.html
; Shibley Telhami, “Do Israelis Support a Strike on Iran?”
Politico
, February 28, 2012.

50.
 For those interested, reports on some of these war games can be found at Dan Ephron, “If Israel Attacks Iran . . .,”
Newsweek
, October 15, 2012, pp. 40–45, available online at
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/10/07/newsweek-s-iran-war-game.html
; Kenneth M. Pollack, “Osiraq Redux: A Crisis Simulation of an Israeli Strike on the Iranian Nuclear Program,” Middle East Memo No. 15, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, February 2010, available at
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2010/2/iran%20israel%20strike%20pollack/02_iran_israel_strike_pollack.pdf
; David Sanger, “Imagining an Israeli Strike on Iran,”
New York Times
, March 27, 2010.

51.
 “President George W Bush ‘Turned Down Israeli Request to Bomb Iran,' ” Reuters, September 25, 2008.

52.
 David E. Sanger, “U.S. Rejected Aid for Israeli Raid on Iranian Nuclear Site,”
New York Times
, January 10, 2009.

53.
 Alexander Bolton, “Israeli Strike on Iran Would Pose Risk for US Economy, Obama Reelection Bid,”
The Hill
, February 23, 2012; Anshel Pfeffer, “After Pushing Israel from Iran Strike, Obama Is Suddenly OK with Netanyahu,”
Haaretz
online, September 4, 2012, available at
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/after-pushing-israel-from-iran-strike-obama-is-suddenly-ok-with-netanyahu-1.462772
.

54.
 Jeffrey Heller and Matt Spetalnick, “Obama, Netanyahu Give No Sign of Narrowing Gap on Iran,” Reuters, March 5, 2012; Mark Landler, “Obama Presses Netanyahu to Resist Strikes on Iran,”
New York Times
, March 5, 2012.

55.
 Paul Bracken,
The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics
(New York: Times Books, 2012), esp. pp. 22–58.

56.
 On Pakistan, see P. R. Chari, “Nuclear Restraint, Nuclear Risk Reduction, and the Security-Insecurity Paradox in South Asia,” in Michael Krepon and Chris Gagne, eds.,
The Stability-Instability Paradox: Nuclear Weapons and Brinksmanship in South Asia
(Washington, D.C.: Stimson Center, 2001); S. Paul Kapur, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia,”
International Security,
No. 33 (Fall 2008): 72; Benjamin S. Lambeth,
Airpower at 18,000': The Indian Air Force in the Kargil War
(Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), pp. 7, 39; Bruce O. Riedel,
Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp. 45–47, 115–16. On North Korea, see Jack Kim and Lee Jae-Won, “North Korea Shells South in Fiercest Attack in Decades,” Reuters, November 23, 2010; “ ‘North Korean Torpedo' Sank South's Navy Ship—Report,” BBC, May 20, 2010, available at
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10129703
. On Iraq, see Amatzia Baram, “Deterrence Lessons from Iraq,”
Foreign Affairs
91, No. 4 (July/August 2012); “Saddam, Israel, and the Bomb: Nuclear Alarmism Justified?” pp. 133–166; Kevin M. Woods, David D. Palkki, and Mark E. Stout, eds.,
The Saddam Tapes: The Inner Workings of a Tyrant's Regime 1978–2001
(Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2011), pp. 222–224.

57.
 For a parallel assessment by two first-rate Middle East military analysts, see Eisenstadt and Knights, “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis,” pp. 3–4.

58.
 Kam, “An Attack on Iran: The Morning After,” p. 18.

59.
 See René Rieger and Markus Schiller, “Pre-Emptive Strike Against Iran: Prelude to an Avoidable Disaster?”
Middle East Policy
19, No. 4 (Winter 2012): 128–30.

60.
 Tehran also reportedly purchased nineteen Nodong/Taepodong missiles from North Korea that could hit Israel (although they may have been bought to eventually carry nuclear warheads, in which case Iran probably would not want to expend them in a conventional attack). William J. Broad, James Glanz, and David E. Sanger, “Iran Fortifies Its Arsenal with the Aid of North Korea,”
New York Times
, November 28, 2010.

61.
 Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?”

62.
 Ibid.

63.
 For a fuller explication of the argument that Iranian retaliation for an
Israeli strike might be less than often imagined, see Michael Eisenstadt and Michael Knights, “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis: Iran's Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike,” Policy Notes No. 11, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2012.

64.
 Rory McCarthy, “Hizbullah Leader: We Regret the Two Kidnappings That Led to War with Israel,”
Guardian
, August 27, 2006.

65.
 William J. Broad, “Weapons Experts Raise Doubts About Israel's Antimissile System,”
New York Times
, March 20, 2013; Reuven Pedatzur, “How Many Missiles Has Iron Dome Really Intercepted?”
Haaretz
, March 9, 2013; Yiftah S. Shapir, “Iron Dome: The Queen of Battle,” in Shlomo Brom, ed., “In the Aftermath of Operation Pillar of Defense: The Gaza Strip, November 2012,” Memorandum 124, Institute for National Strategic Studies, Israel, December 2012, pp. 39–48.

66.
 “Iran: Hezbollah Will Defend Us ‘Easily' Against Israeli Attack,” Reuters, September 14, 2012.

67.
 Yoram Schweitzer, “Are Changes Expected in Israel-Gaza Relations?” in Brom, “In the Aftermath of Operation Pillar of Defense,” ibid., pp. 79–82.

68.
 “Rocket Attacks on Israel from Gaza,” Israel Defense Forces website, November 20, 2012, available at
http://www.idfblog.com/facts-figures/rocket-attacks-toward-israel/
.

69.
 Uriel Heilman, “Operation Pillar of Defense: Lessons Learned,” JTA, November 21, 2012.

70.
 Steve Fetter, George N. Lewis, and Lisbeth Gronlund, “Why Were Casualties So Low?”
Nature
361 (January 28, 1993): 294.

71.
 “Terrorism Against Israel: Number of Fatalities,” Jewish Virtual Library, available at
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Peace/osloterr.html
; “Jewish Historic Demography,” Jewish Timeline, available at
http://www.odyeda.com/JewishTimelineEn/jewish-historic-demography/
.

72.
 Ibid.

73.
 Kam, “An Attack on Iran,” p. 20; Eisenstadt and Knights, “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis,” p. 7.

74.
 Julian Borger, “Lebanon War Cost Israel $1.6 Billion,”
Guardian
, August 15, 2006; “The Hezbollah-Israel Conflict: By the Numbers,” Israel Project, available at
http://www.theisraelproject.org/site/c.hsJPK0PIJpH/b.2904297/k.131A/The_HezbollahIsrael_Conflict_By_the_Numbers.htm
, downloaded January 20, 2013.

75.
 See for instance, Pollack, “Osiraq Redux?”

76.
 “Poll: Most Israelis Could Live with a Nuclear Iran,” Reuters, June 14, 2009.

77.
 Christa Case Bryant, “Israelis Shrug at Netanyahu's Urgent Warnings on Iran,”
Christian Science Monitor
, September 25, 2012.

78.
 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, September 2012,” Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, September 20, 2012, available at
http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2012/p45ejoint.html
.

79.
 Crispian Balmer, “Netanyahu Conundrum Faces Iranian Riddle,” Reuters, January 14, 2013.

80.
 Jodi Rudoren, “Tepid Vote for Netanyahu in Israel Is Seen as Rebuke,”
New York Times
, January 23, 2012; Isabel Kershner, “Charismatic Leader Helps Israel Turn Toward the Center,”
New York Times
, January 23, 2012.

81.
 Telhami, “Do Israelis Support a Strike on Iran?”

82.
 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, September 2012.”

83.
 Ibid.

84.
 Telhami, “Do Israelis Support a Strike on Iran?”

85.
 Daniel Levy, “Netanyahu Won't Attack Iran (Probably),”
ForeignPolicy.com
, March 2, 2012, available at
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/02/netanyahu_won_t_attack_iran
.

86.
 Daniel L. Byman,
A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 324–34.

87.
 See also Bryant, “Israelis Shrug at Netanyahu's Urgent Warnings on Iran.”

88.
 “Netanyahu, Barak Mulling Fall Strike on Iran,” Ynet News, August 10, 2012, available at
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4266973,00.html
.

89.
 Levy, “Netanyahu Won't Attack Iran (Probably).”

90.
 Balmer, “Netanyahu Conundrum Faces Iranian Riddle.”

91.
 Ibid.

92.
 Quoted in David Remnick, “Blood and Sand,”
New Yorker
, May 5, 2008, p. 76.

93.
 See for instance, Ali Akbar Dareini, “Iran Threatens Attacks on US Bases in Event of War,” Associated Press, September 24, 2012.

94.
 Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker, “U.S. War Game Sees Perils of Israeli Strike Against Iran,”
New York Times
, March 19, 2012.

95.
 My friend Elliott Abrams, with whom I have some sharp disagreements regarding the utility of an Israeli strike, seems to agree with me on this specific point. See Elliott Abrams, “The Grounds for an Israeli Attack,”
World Affairs
175, No. 1 (May/June 2012): 29. Here he notes that Iran is fully capable of distinguishing between an American attack and an Israeli attack and of responding only against the party that attacked it. For another concurring assessment, see Eisenstadt and Knights, “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis,” p. 3.

96.
 Daniel Fineran and Amena Bakr, “Iran Says May Stop Oil Sales If Sanctions Tighten,” Reuters, October 23, 2012; Ramin Mostafavi, “Iran
Threatens to Stop Gulf Oil If Sanctions Widened,” Reuters, December 28, 2011; Ramin Mostafavi, “Iran Warns of Consequences if Arabs Back Oil Sanctions,” Reuters, January 16, 2012; Brian Murphy and Nasser Karimi, “Iran Revives Gulf Threats After EU Sanctions,” Associated Press, January 24, 2012; Robin Pomeroy, “Iran Tells Turkey: Change Tack or Face Trouble,” Reuters, October 8, 2011; David E. Sanger and Annie Lowrey, “Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions,”
New York Times,
December 27, 2011; Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran Threatens Israel; New EU Sanctions Take Force,” Reuters, July 1, 2012.

97.
 Geoff Dyer, Monavar Khalaj, James Blitz, and Jack Farchy, “U.S. Dismisses Iranian Threats Over Carrier,”
Financial Times
, January 4, 2012.

98.
 Eisenstadt and Knights, “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis,” p. 6.

99.
 Elisabeth Bumiller, Eric Schmitt, and Thom Shanker, “U.S. Sends Top Iranian Leader a Warning on Strait Threat,”
New York Times
, January 12, 2012; Sanger and Lowrey, “Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions.”

100.
 For concurring assessments, see Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 26, 2007; Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz,”
International Security
33, No. 1 (Summer 2008): 82–117.

1.
 Jonathan Saul, “Western Sanctions Swamp Iran's Seaborne Trade,”
Daily Star
, October 13, 2012.

2.
 See for instance, Amir Latif, “Iranian Petrol a Hot Commodity in Pakistan,” PakTribune, December 12, 2012, available at
http://paktribune.com/articles/Iranian-petrol-a-hot-commodity-in-Pakistan-162821.html
.

3.
 Thomas Seibert, “Fuel Smugglers Run a ‘Pipeline of Mules,' ”
National
, June 8, 2009; “Gas Oil Smuggling from Iran to Turkey, Pakistan on Rise,” AzerNews, November 26, 2012, available at
http://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/46696.html
.

4.
 Mohammad Ali Shabani, “Iran Survives Sanctions, Girds for Further Economic War,” Al-Monitor, December 20, 2012.

5.
 Ladane Nasseri and Yeganeh Salehi, “Iran's Smugglers Feel the Squeeze,”
BloombergBusinessweek
, August 2, 2012.

6.
 Ken Dilanian, “Illegal Exports to Iran on the Rise, Say U.S. Officials,”
Los Angeles Times,
November 17, 2012.

7.
 See “Iran Black Markets,” Havoscope: Black Market Information, updated periodically, available at
http://www.havocscope.com/tag/iran/
.

8.
 For a similar assessment by a superb military analyst, see Michael E. O'Hanlon, “Deterrence,” in Jon B. Alterman, “Gulf Kaleidoscope: Reflections on the Iranian Challenge,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2012, pp. 41–43.

9.
 Robert McNally, “Time to Tighten the Noose on Iran,”
Financial Times
, June 27, 2012.

10.
 William Arkin, “The Difference Was in the Details,”
Washington Post
, January 17, 1999.

11.
 Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, “Analyzing the Impact of Preventive Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 2012, available at
http://csis.org/files/publication/120906_Iran_US_Preventive_Strikes.pdf
, p. 19.