Unthinkable (84 page)

oppositionists killed and imprisoned by,
124
,
160
,
171
–72,
178

Parliament (Majles) of,
6
,
12
,
21
,
59
,
116
,
144
,
203
,
285

as part of the “Axis of Evil,”
122

pharmaceutical industry in,
68

population of,
153

possible collapse of,
367
–69,
391
,
405

possible Israeli strike on,
xix
,
42
,
55
,
60
,
65
,
72
–73,
104
,
106
,
183
–223,
231
,
235
–36,
254
,
258
,
259
,
289
,
327
,
336
–38,
477

pragmatism vs. ideological convictions in,
15
–16,
24

principle of
maslahat
(interest of the regime) in,
58

purge of moderate elements in,
21
–22,
367

pursuit of regime change in,
xviii
,
xix
,
104
,
106
–7,
119
–22,
145
,
158
–82,
240
–43,
287
,
311
,
321
,
370
,
372
–73,
395
–96

reform elements in,
xviii
,
36
–37,
115
–17,
159
,
161
,
174
,
366

regional hegemony seen as “natural” order by,
10
–11,
12
,
82
,
91
,
92
,
120
,
323

road and rail network of,
71

secrecy and insecurity of,
4
–5,
7
,
8
,
70
,
234
,
239

smuggling in,
226
–27

Soviet troops withdrawn from,
77

spread of Islamic Revolution as priority of,
9
,
11
–12,
16
,
24
,
120

Sunni-Shi'a conflict in,
70

support for opposition groups in,
149
,
167
,
321

terrorism supported and practiced by,
14
,
25
,
26
,
28
–30,
31
,
64
,
65
,
67
–70,
72
,
78
,
79
–80,
82
,
85
,
92
,
110
,
114
,
147
,
163
,
173
–74,
180
–81,
207
–11,
217
,
258
–60,
271
–74,
285
,
299
–300,
304
,
305
,
310
,
314
–15

two distinct military units of,
6
–7

unemployment in,
133

U.S. attempts to influence internal politics of,
8
–9,
23
,
33
,
36
–37,
71
,
169
–70,
176
,
321

U.S. seen as waging “soft war” against,
14
,
26
,
33
,
149
,
168

Western attacks and occupation of,
70
–71,
116

Western covert action against,
33
,
38
,
71
,
147
–50,
173
,
273
,
284
,
321

willingness to use torture, mass arrests and killings to hold power by,
10
,
124
,
160
,
172
,
178

WMD program of,
227
,
272
,
305
–6

Iran, proposed containment of,
xiv
–xix,
105
–9,
117
,
277
–391,
396
–405,
416
–21

advantages and disadvantages of,
401
–5

air strikes vs.,
397
–401,
405
–8,
413
–15

appeasement vs.,
280
,
281

“balancing” behavior and,
340
–44,
352

“bandwagoning” (“Finlandization”) and,
340
–44,
352
,
374
,
403
,
459

breakout capability and,
373
–76

choosing the path of,
421

costs and risks of,
311
,
354
–65,
414
–15,
509

crisis management in,
310
–11,
322
–26,
376
–78,
409
,
412

current U.S. disavowal of,
279
–80,
290

danger of nascent nuclear arsenals and,
326
–32

dealing with Iranian subversion and unconventional warfare in,
314
–20,
334
–35,
340
,
366
–67,
372

defense treaties helpful in,
350
–52

defensive vs. offensive,
317
–21,
370
,
371
,
389
–90

deterrence and extended deterrence as,
281
,
297
–309,
312
–14,
352
,
381
–82,
387
–88,
403
,
409
–10,
419
,
495
–98

“existential threats” and,
292
–96

flexibility of,
320
,
389
–90

human rights and,
385
–87

increased conventional forces and,
344
–50,
354
–60

Israel and,
387
–89

long-term considerations and,
311
,
365
–69,
382
–85

need for a deal in,
378
–82,
395
,
396
,
421

oil market and,
360
–65,
404
,
408
–9,
411
–12,
491

possible collapse of Iran and,
367
–69,
391
,
405

prevention vs.,
279
–80,
338
,
393
–94

problems of,
310
–69,
407

proliferation and,
338
–41,
375
,
391
,
403
,
412

purposes of,
280
–81,
370

“red lines” concept and,
333
–38,
378
–79,
394

regime change and,
287
,
311
,
321
,
370
,
372
–73,
395
–96

reputational considerations and,
338
–41

sanctions and,
382
–85

successful functioning of,
370
–91

tactical nuclear weapons and,
346
–47

understanding of,
280
–84

U.S. history of containment and,
280
–83,
284
–91,
408
,
419
–20

U.S. regional allies and,
291
–96,
316
–17,
320
–21,
340
,
342
–44,
350
–54

Iran Air Flight
455
,
257

Iran-Contra scandal,
8
,
285

Iranian Armed Forces (Artesh),
6
,
17
,
169
–70,
171
,
242
,
266
,
360

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
58

Iranian nuclear program,
xiii
–xx,
9
,
17
,
34
–83,
86
,
88
,
97
,
445
–53

Arab Spring and,
79
–80

assassination of Iranian scientists in,
25
,
26
,
38
,
148
,
173
,
208

“breakout” capability and,
55
–57,
60
,
62
–63,
80
,
86
,
103
–9,
142
–43,
373
–76

capacity for weaponizing of,
xiii
–xvi,
xix
–xx,
3
,
5
,
13
,
31
,
34
–44,
47
–83,
95
,
97
,
99
–421

carrot-and-stick (negotiation for concessions) approach to,
xvii
,
xix
,
36
–37,
107
–8,
112
,
117
–57,
159
–60,
164
,
181
,
206
,
253
,
255
,
287
–88,
289
,
465

concealment of,
38
–44,
45
–46,
48
–53,
60
,
193

cyberattacks on,
33
,
38
,
71
,
148
–50,
217
,
321
,
470

debate on,
xx
,
7
,
12
–13,
17
,
39
,
51
–53,
110
–11,
157
,
184
,
279

defensive vs. offensive rationale for,
22
–23,
31
,
59
,
70
–73,
76
,
81

economic incentives for change in,
144
–45

engagement-only approach to,
111
–17

as “existential threat,”
292
–96

international sanctions imposed to force an end to,
xiii
,
13
,
38
,
48
,
56
–57,
60
–61,
65
,
89
,
108
,
113
–19,
121
–22,
124
–27,
129
–39,
145
,
149
–53,
156
–57,
163
–64,
167
,
179
,
219
,
220
,
226
–28,
245
,
284
,
289
,
382
–85

Iranian military involvement in,
44

Iranian public opinion on,
162

Iraq nuclear program compared to,
44
–48

Khamene'i and,
12
–13,
37
,
119

monitoring and inspections of,
39
,
40
,
46
,
55
–56,
105
–6,
108
–9,
111
,
140
,
142
–43,
144
,
239
,
377
,
401

nuclear and technological incentives for change in,
140
–44

options for dealing with,
xiii
–xx,
72
,
101
–421

peaceful, domestic uses of,
34
,
35
,
38
–39,
40
–41,
48
,
109
,
125
–26,
161

as possible benefit to U.S.,
65
–66

prevention of weaponizing of,
101
–275,
279
–80,
338
,
393
–94

progress in,
xiii
,
31
,
36
–38,
57
,
61
–62,
108
,
122
,
141
,
235
–36,
239
,
246
,
287

rebuilding of,
235
,
238
–40,
248
,
251
,
264
,
399
,
400

security guarantees as incentives for change in,
145
–46,
147

threats and costs to U.S. of,
xvi
–xix,
64
–82

U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of,
51
,
52

Western campaign against,
xiii
,
xvii
,
xix
,
13
,
29
,
31
,
33
,
38
,
71
,
77
,
148
–50

see also
Iran, containment of; United States, military option of

Iran-Iraq War,
16
,
25
,
35
,
84
–85,
133
,
134
,
201
,
208
,
237
,
303

Iranian counter-invasion in,
285

Iranian losses in,
10
,
67

Iraq's use of WMD in,
69
,
71

1980 Iraq invasion of Iran in,
7
,
67
,
171

U.S. naval intervention in,
67
,
273

Iran Law Enforcement Forces (LEF),
20
,
242

Iraq,
xv
–xvii

civil war of 2005–2007 in,
28

failed U.S. efforts at containment of,
xv
,
9

intelligence services of,
305

Iranian involvement in,
26
,
27
,
29

Israeli strike on nuclear plant in,
184
,
191
,
194
,
199
–202,
240