Why the West Rules--For Now (112 page)

Fifteenth-century Mexico: Pollard 1993, M. Smith 2003.

Multiple renaissances: Goody 2010.

Gavin Menzies’s arguments: Menzies 2002, 2008, and
www.1421.tv
and
www.gavinmenzies.net
. Historians’ response: Finlay 2004. A lot of discussion can be found online (for example,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1421_hypothesis
and
http://www.dightonrock.com/commentsandrebuttalsconcering142.htm
).

Princess Taiping:
http://www.chinesevoyage.com
. On the shipwreck:
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2009/04/27/205767/Princess-Taiping.htm
.

Henry the Navigator: Russell 2000.

Hongwu: Farmer 1995. Yongle: Tsai 2001.

Neo-Confucian culture: Bol 1992, Hymes and Schirokauer 1993, Ivanhoe 2009, Mote 1999, T. Lee 2004.

Chinese gender relations and footbinding: Birge 2002, Ebrey 1993, Ko 2007. Photographs of bound feet: al-Akl 1932.

Portuguese voyages: Fernandez-Armesto 2006. There is much controversy over how much impact Portugal had on the Indian Ocean in the early sixteenth century; compare the accounts in Bethencourt and Curto 2007 and Subrahmanyam 2007.

9. THE WEST CATCHES UP

General background: Brook 1998 and 2010, Mote 1999, Rowe 2009, the early chapters of Spence 1990, and Struve 2004 for China; V. Lieberman 2003 for Southeast Asia; Cullen 2003 and Totman 1993 for Japan. Braudel 1972 and 1981–84 and Wiesner-Hanks 2006 give readable accounts of Europe. Barkey 2008 and Finkel 2006 review the Ottoman Empire. Historians of this period have produced some fine East-West comparative studies (for example, Brook 2008, Darwin 2008, A. G. Frank 1998, Goldstone 2009, V. Lieberman 1999, Maddison 2005, Pomeranz 2000, Robinson 2010, Wong 1997). Wills 2002 provides a delightful tour of the world in the year 1688.

Real wages: Allen 2001, 2003a; Angeles 2008; Broadberry and Gupta 2006; Pamuk 2007.

Population growth: Ho 1959, Le Roy Ladurie 1972.

European folktales: Darnton 1984, pp. 9–72.

Hideyoshi: Berry 1989; Swope 2005, 2009.

Wanli and Zhang Zhuzheng: R. Huang 1981.

Global war on piracy: Earle 2003, Lane 1998, K. So 1975.

Habsburgs: Ingrau 2000, Kamen 1999, Kann 1980, G. Parker 2001.

Protestant Reformation: Fasolt 2008, MacCullagh 2003. Elton 1963 remains the most readable short account.

Dutch Republic: Israel 1995, Tracy 2008, van Bavel and van Zanden 2004, van Zanden 2002.

Ecology: Allen 2003b, Marks 1998, John Richards 2003.

Seventeenth-century crisis: G. Parker 2009. Levellers: Hill 1984, Mendle 2001. Thirty Years’ War: G. Parker 1997, P. Wilson 2009.

Ming/Qing transition: Struve 1993.

Closing the steppes: Perdue 2005, Stevens 1995. Ivan the Terrible: de Madriaga 2008.

Spanish America: Elliott 2006, Kamen 2003. Silver: D. Flynn 1996, Flynn
et al.
2003, von Glahn 1996. Columbian Exchange: Crosby 1972. Ecological imperialism: Crosby 2004. Jamestown and early slavery: E. Morgan 1975 is outstanding. Atlantic slavery generally: Blackburn 1997; Inikori 2002, 2007; Mintz 1985.

Industrious revolution: de Vries 2008, Mazumdar 1998, Voth 2001. Consumption: Brewer and Porter 1993, Clunas 1991.

Clocks: Landes 1983.

Scientific revolution: Dear 2001 and Shapin 1994 and 1996 are excellent surveys. Kuhn 1962 remains a classic. Saliba 2007 argues for influences from Muslim science on Europe; Crosby 1997 and Huff 2003 emphasize European developments since the twelfth century. Coffee houses and science: Stewart 1992.

Enlightenment: D. Outram 2005 and Youlton 1992 are reliable, clear introductions; Gay 1966–69 is a classic.

Donglin Academy: Dardess 2002. Qing scholarship and science: Elman 2001, 2006, Sivin 1982.

Joseph Needham and Lu Gwei-djen: Winchester 2008.

Jesuits: Brockey 2007.

Kangxi: Spence 1974. Eighteenth-century Chinese society: Naquin and Rawski 1987. Chinese isolation: Johnston 1995. Qianlong: Elliott and Stearns 2009.

European military revolution: Black 2006, P. Kennedy 1987, McNeill 1982, G. Parker 1996, Rogers 1995. Ottoman warfare: Murphey 1999. Chinese warfare: Lorge 2005, Yates
et al.
2009. Japan and guns: Perrin 1979.

Financial crises and fiscal revolutions: Bonney 1999, Goldstone 1991.

British and Dutch commerce and institutions: Brenner 2003, H. Cook 2008, de Vries and van der Woude 1997, Jardine 2008, Pincus 2009.

Anglo-French trade and war: Findlay and O’Rourke 2007, Simms 2008. Mercantilism: Tracy 1990, 1991.

Political economy: the classic texts are Adam Smith’s
Wealth of Nations
(1776), Thomas Malthus’s
Essay on the Principle of Population
(1st ed., 1798), and David Ricardo’s
Principles of Political Economy and Taxation
(1817), all republished many times.

10. THE WESTERN AGE

Bayly 2004 and Darwin 2008 and 2009 are outstanding recent surveys on the global scale, but Eric Hobsbawm’s four-volume treatment (1964, 1975, 1987, 1994) remains my favorite. Estimates of economic growth: Maddison 1995, 2001. Western military-fiscal trends: P. Kennedy 1987. China generally: Rowe 2009, Spence 1990. Japan: Cullen 2003, Jansen 2000. Southeast Asia: Owen
et al.
2005.

Eighteenth-century science and industry: Jacob 1997; Jacob and Stewart 2004; Mokyr 2002, 2010; R. Porter 2003. Technology: Mokyr 1990, Smil 2005, 2006. Uglow 2002 is a highly readable account of Boulton, Watt, and the characters around them.

The Western industrial revolution remains controversial; compare Acemoglu
et al.
2005, Landes 2003 [1969], Mokyr 1999, and Allen 2009. Floud and McCloskey 1994 is the best reference work. Gradualist views: Wrigley 2000, Bayly 2004.

Real wages: Allen 2001, 2007b, 2007c, Allen
et al.
2007.

Prices of cotton: Harley 1998.

Resistance to industrialization: the classic accounts are Thompson 1963, 1993, and (on Captain Swing) Hobsbawm and Rudé 1969, although they should be read with the more recent works cited above.

Culture and advantages of backwardness: Weber 1905 is the classic theory; Landes 1998 and G. Clark 2007 offer more sophisticated versions. Acemoglu
et al.
2002 stress the role of institutions.

On whether the East was close to an independent industrial revolution around 1800, see the very different arguments in Goldstone 2009, Maddison 2005, Pomeranz 2000, Sivin 1982, Tetlock
et al.
2006, and Wong 1997. Inevitability of an Eastern catch-up: Sugihara 2003.

Costs of 1880 Chinese mine: Golas 1999, p. 170.

Nineteenth-century American expansion: Howe 2007, R. White 1993. Environmental impact: Williams 2003.

Oil: Yergin 1992. Free trade: Irwin 1996. Modernism and the speeded-up world: Kern 1983, Gay 2008.

Theories of late nineteenth-century imperialism vary wildly. Cain and Hopkins 2000, Darwin 2009, Davis 2001, Ferguson 2003, and A. Porter 2001 give a sense of the range. Hochschild 1998 is a horrifying account of the Congo. Famines of 1876–79 and 1896–1902: Davis 2001, Cane 2010.

Opium War: see the books listed for the introduction.

Opening of Japan: Feifer 2006 is a readable account. Japan’s nineteenth-century transformation: Duus 1976, Jansen 2000. Meiji emperor: Keene 2002. Japanese imperialism: Beasley 1987. Sino-Japanese war: Paine 2003. Guangxu’s death:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/11/04/china.emperor/index.html
.

Boxer Rebellion: Preston 1999 is a readable account.

Grouping the conflicts of 1914–91 together: Ferguson 2007. Twentieth-century economy generally: Frieden 2006. World War I: Ferguson 1998, Stevenson 2004, Strachan 2005. Postwar settlement: MacMillan 2002. Great Depression: Eichengreen 1992, Shlaes 2007. Soviet response: Conquest 1986, Figes 1996, Fitzpatrick 1999, Applebaum 2003. Japan: Harries and Harries 1991, Iriye 1987. Nazi Germany: R. Evans 2005, Tooze 2006. World War II: Dower 1986, Ferguson 2007, Overy 1995, A. Roberts 2009, Weinberg 2005. Cold War: Behrman 2008, Eichengreen 2007, Gaddis 2005, Judt 2005, Reynolds 2000, Sheehan 2008, Westad 2005. Mutual Assured Destruction: Krepon 2008. Decolonization: Abernethy 2000, Brendon 2008, P. Clarke 2008, Darwin 2009. European Union: Gillingham 1991, 2003. Material abundance: de Grazia 2005, Fogel 2004, Grigg 1992, Sandbrook 2005. Rising life expectancy: Riley 2001.
Feminine Mystique:
Friedan 1963.
Sexual Politics:
Millett 1970. American suburbs: Hayden 2002. 1980s economic revival: Yergin and Stanislaw 2002.

The
Oxford History of the United States
series (D. Kennedy 1999, Patterson 1997, 2005) is a fine survey of twentieth-century American history. America’s geographical advantages: Cumings 2009.

Computers and the Western core in the 1970s–80s: Castells 1996–98, Saxenian 1994, and the entertaining account of Wozniak and Smith 2007.

Postwar Japan: Dower 2000, D. Smith 1995. Maoist China: Becker 1996, P. Clark 2008, MacFarquhar and Schoenhals 2006, Short 1999. Post-Mao China: Gittings 1995, Greenhalgh 2008, Y. Huang 2008, Naughton 1995, Walder 2009, L. Zhang 2008. Nixon and China: Nixon 1967, MacMillan 2008.

Fall of the Soviet Union and post-Soviet Russia: Gaidar 2008, Goldman 2008. 1990s Japan: Amyx 2004, Hutchison and Westermann 2006. The 1992 Defense Planning Guidance and subsequent American policy: J. Mann 2004.

Costs of China’s economic boom since the 1990s: Chen and Wu 2006, Chen 2009, Economy 2004, Goldman 2005, Shapiro 2001. Of the many books on China’s growth into a trading superpower, Kynge 2006 and Fishman 2006 are among the best.

11. WHY THE WEST RULES …

Genetic superiority: some economists do indeed suggest that the European industrial revolution was a result of natural selection. Galor and Moav 2002 are most explicit; G. Clark 2007 comes close to suggesting it for England.

Scientific inventions: Merton 1957, Stigler 1980, and Malcolm Gladwell’s highly readable “In the Air,”
The New Yorker,
May 12, 2008, pp. 50–60 (available at
http://www.newyorker.com/archive
).

East-West psychological differences: Hedden
et al.
2008. Eastern illogicality: compare Nisbett 2003, Ho and Yan 2007, and McGilchrist 2009. Lloyd 2007 is a balanced discussion of cognitive variation. I’d like to thank Professor Nisbett for discussing this issue with me.

Flynn Effect: Neisser 1998, J. Flynn 2007, and Malcolm Gladwell, “None of the Above: What IQ Doesn’t Tell You About Race,”
The New Yorker,
December 17, 2007 (available at
http://www.newyorker.com/archive
).

Confucianism and Japan’s failings: J. Hall 1966. Confucianism and Japan’s successes: Morishima 1982.

What-ifs: Tetlock
et al.
2006, especially the chapters by Goldstone, Pestana, Pomeranz, and Mokyr. Principles of counterfactual analysis: Ferguson 1997, Tetlock and Belkin 1996. I explain my own approach more fully in Morris 2005.

Bungling: Tuchmann 1984 is a must-read.

Nightfall: for the Younger Dryas, see
Chapter 2
. Asteroids: Brown
et al.
2002, Toon
et al.
1997, Ward and Asphaug 2000. Disasters generally: Smil 2008. Warheads in 1980: Sakharov 1983.

Hitler winning World War II: Rosenfeld 2005.
Fatherland:
R. Harris 1992. Nuclear weapons: Gaddis
et al.
1999. Cuba: Fursenko and Naftali 1997.

Foundation:
Asimov published eight short stories in
Astounding Magazine
between May 1942 and January 1950, then collected them into three books published between 1951 and 1953. In the 1980s–90s he wrote two sequels and two prequels. His fullest comments on psychohistory are in
Foundation
(1951) and
Prelude to Foundation
(1988).

12.… FOR NOW

Chinese power in the twenty-first century: Jacques 2009, Halper 2010.

Chimerica: Ferguson and Schularick 2007, Ferguson 2009; “A Wary Respect: A Special Report on China and America,”
The Economist,
October 24, 2009 (available at
http://www.economist.com/specialreports
).

America remaking itself: Jack Welch, “Who Will Rule the 21st Century?”
Business Week
, July 2, 2007 (
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=7%23713
).

China’s problems: Goldman 2005, Shirk 2007.

Rising tide lifting all boats: Fogel 2007; Maddison 2006, 2007.