Why the West Rules--For Now (113 page)

Soothing Scenario: J. Mann 2007. China and democracy: Y. Zheng 2004, 2010.

Easternization of the West: Kurlantzick 2007.

International relations realists: Johnston 1995.

Energy: Smil 2006.

Singularity: Kurzweil 2005, with
http://www.singularity.com
,
http://www.kurzweilAI.net
, and
http://www.singularitysummit.com
. Criticisms: Lanier 2000, Richards
et al.
2002, McKibben 2003. Moore’s Law: G. Moore 1965, 1999, 2003. Brain mapping:
http://www.loni.ucla/ICBM/
and
http://www.brainmapping.org
, constantly updated.

Tiger Woods and Oscar Pistorius:
http://www.slate.com/id/2116858/
;
http://www.slate.com/id/2191801/
.

Eugenics debates: writings on augmented bodies and brains tend to be either very upbeat (for example, Naam 2005, R. Green 2007) or very worried about the preservation of identity (for example, Fukuyama 2002, S. Rose 2006). Rifkin 1998, though now a little dated, is more balanced.

Brain Interface Project:
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/pentagon-preps-soldier-telepathy-push
); Singer 2009, pp. 72–74. Molecular computing: Benenson
et al.
2004.

IBM Blue Gene computers:
http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/rd49-23.html
. Mouse and rat simulations: Frye
et al.
2007, Ananthanarayanan and Modha 2007;
http://p9.hostingprod.com/@modha.org/blog/2007/11/faq_anatomy_of_a
cortical
simu.html
. Energy and cooling requirements:
The Economist Technology Quarterly,
December 6, 2008, pp. 6–8 (available at
http://www.economist.com/specialreports
). Project Kittyhawk: Appavoo
et al.
2008.

Synthetic life: Gibson
et al.
2010 (
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1190719
).

Carlson’s Curve: Robert Carlson, “Open Source Biology and its Impact on Industry,”
IEEE Spectrum,
May 2001 (available at
http://synthesis.cc/Biol_Tech_2050.pdf
); Carlson 2010.

Freeman-Spogli Institute’s “World at Risk” conference:
http://fsi.stanford.edu/events/2006_fsi_international_conference_a_world_at_risk/
.

Worst-case scenarios generally: Diamond 2005, Smil 2008, Sunstein 2007.

Climate change: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Smil 2008. Estimates of polar melting:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
. Global weirding: T. Friedman 2008. Abrupt change: Pearce 2008.
Stern Review:
Stern 2006.

Climate and food: Easterling 2007, Battisti and Naylor 2009, Lobell and Burke 2010. Food:
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/
,
http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/ai474e/ai474e13.htm
, and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_crisis
. Regional impacts: Bättig
et al.
2007. Water: Pearce 2007.

There is a huge literature on migration into the United States and western Europe, much of it highly partisan. Swain 2007,
The Economist
’s survey of migration (“Open Up: A Special Report on Immigration,”
The Economist,
January 5, 2008; available at
http://www.economist.com/specialreports
), Caldwell 2009, and R. Hsu 2010 make efforts to cover all sides of the questions. Post-2008 trends: Papademetriou and Terrazas 2009.

Migration and disease:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/
. Influenza: Barry 2005, MacKellar 2007, Davis 2006,
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/index.php
and
http://www.who.int/en/
.

Great-power involvement in the arc of instability: G. Friedman 2004, Oren 2007. China and resources: Zweig and Bi 2005. Peaceful rising: B. Zheng 2005. Terrorist risks: Graham and Talent 2008. Israel and Iran: “The Gathering Storm,”
The Economist,
January 7, 2010 (available at
http://www.economist.com
). Conflict in the twenty-first century: G. Friedman 2009, Fukuyama 2008, Khanna 2008, Krepinevich 2009, Zakaria 2008. Chinese and American military strengths: R. Kaplan 2005. Chinese missile test:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/11/content_12792329.htm
. Chinese aircraft carrier:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/22/world/main4960774.shtml?source=RSSattr=HOME_4960774
.

Nuclear arms reduction: George Schultz et al., “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,”
Wall Street Journal,
January 4, 2007, p. A15 (available at
http://www.fcnl.org/issues/item.php?item_id=2252&issue_id=54
; “Toward a Nuclear-Free World,”
Wall Street Journal,
January 15, 2008 (available at
http://online.wsj.com//files/03/10/90/f031090/public/article_print/SB120036422673589947.html
); Perkovich and Zaum 2008; Sagan and Miller 2009–2010. Decline of arsenals: Norris and Kristensen 2008, 2009a, b, 2010. Doomsday Clock:
http://www.thebulletin.org/content/media-center/announcements/2010/01/14/it-6-minutes-to-midnight
.

Reducing consumption: McKibben 2010, Wells 2010.

Kyoto Protocol: text at
http://unfccc.int/kyoto-protocol/items/2830.php
. Data on emissions since 1990:
http://unfccc.int/files/inc/graphics/image/gif/total_excluding_2008.gif
;
http://co2now.org/
. Estimate of costs: Juliette Jowit and Patrick Wintour. “Cost of Tackling Global Climate Change Has Doubled, Warns Stern,”
The Guardian,
June 26, 2008 (
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/26/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange
). Some economists (for example, Nordhaus 2007) are critical, but an Australian report (Garnaut 2008) has reached similar conclusions to Stern.

Nonstate organizations: T. Friedman 1999, van Creveld 1999.

Energy issues: Smil 2006.

Fermi Paradox: E. Jones 1985, Webb 2002. Search for extraterrestrials: Impey 2007, P. Davies 2010.

Million civilizations: Shklovskii and Sagan 1968, p. 448. Drake’s Equation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
.

High-tech weapons: Adams 2008, Singer 2009.

Extinctions: Thomas
et al.
2004. Sixth great extinction: Leakey and Lewin 1995.

Bibliography

Abernethy, David.
The Dynamics of Global Dominance: European Overseas Empires, 1415–1980.
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000.

Abramson, Marc.
Ethnic Identity in Tang China.
Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2007.

Abu-Lughod, Janet.
Before European Hegemony. The World System
AD
1250–1350.
New York: Oxford University Press, 1989.

Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson. “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.”
Quarterly Journal of Economics
118 (2002), pp. 1231–94.

———. “The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth.”
American Economic Review
95 (2005), pp. 546–79.

Adams, Thomas. “Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking.”
Parameters: Journal of the US Army War College
31.4 (2001), p. 57 (15).

———.
The Army After Next: The First Postindustrial Army.
Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2008.

Adshead, Samuel.
China in World History.
3rd ed. London: Longmans, 2000.

———.
Tang China.
London: Longmans, 2004.

Akkermans, Peter, and Glenn Schwartz.
The Archaeology of Syria.
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

al-Akl, F. M. “Bound Feet in China.”
American Journal of Surgery
18 (1932), pp. 545–50.

Allen, Robert. “The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War.”
Explorations in Economic History
38 (2001), pp. 411–48.

———. “Poverty and Progress in Early Modern Europe.”
Economic History Review
56 (2003a), pp. 403–43.

———. “Was There a Timber Crisis in Early Modern Europe?” In
Economia e energia secc. xiii–xviii, Serie II–Atti delle “Settimane di Studi” e altri Convegni,
pp. 469–82. Prato: 34 Istituto Internazionale di Storia Economica “F. Datini,” 2003b.

———. “The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective: How Commerce Created the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth,” 2006a.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

———. “Agricultural Productivity and Rural Incomes in England and the Yangtze Delta, c. 1620–c. 1820,” 2006b.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

———. “How Prosperous Were the Romans? The Evidence of Diocletian’s Price Edict (301 AD).” Oxford University Department of Economics Working Papers 363, 2007a.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

———. “Pessimism Preserved: Real Wages in the British Industrial Revolution.” Oxford University Department of Economics Working Papers 314, 2007b.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

———. “Engels’ Pause: A Pessimist’s Guide to the British Industrial Revolution.” Oxford University Department of Economics Working Papers 315, 2007c.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

———.
The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective.
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Allen, Robert,
et al.
“Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738–1925,” 2007.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx
.

Allen, Robert, Tommy Bengtsson, and Martin Dribe, eds.
Living Standards in the Past: New Perspectives on Well-Being in Asia and Europe.
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.

Allsen, Thomas.
Culture and Conquest in Mongol Eurasia.
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

Amitai-Rice, Reuven, and David Morgan.
The Mongol Empire and its Legacy.
Leiden: E. J. Brill, 2001.

Amyx, Jennifer.
Japan’s Financial Crisis.
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.

Ananthanarayanan, Rajagopal, and Dharmendra Modha. “Anatomy of a Cortical Simulator.” Paper given at the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis, Reno, NV (November 11, 2007). Available at
http://sc07.supercomp.org/schedule/event_detail.php?evid=11063
.

Angeles, Luis. “GDP Per Capita or Real Wages? Making Sense of Conflicting Views on Pre-Industrial Europe.”
Explorations in Economic History
45 (2008), pp. 147–63.

Appavoo, Jonathan, Volkmar Uhlig, and Amos Waterland. “Project Kittyhawk: Building a Global-Scale Computer. Blue Gene/P as a Generic Computing Platform.”
ACM Sigops Operating System Review,
January 2008. Available at
http://domino.research.ibm.com/comm/research_projects.nsf/pages/kittyhawk.index.html
.

Applebaum, Anne.
Gulag: A History of the Soviet Camps.
New York: Penguin, 2003.

Armelagos, George, and Kristin Harper. “Genomics at the Origins of Agriculture.”
Evolutionary Anthropology
14 (2005), pp. 68–77, 109–21.

Armstrong, Karen.
The Great Transformation: The Beginning of Our Religious Traditions.
New York: Knopf, 2006.

Arrighi, Giovanni.
Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the Twenty-First Century.
London: Verso, 2007.

Asimov, Isaac. “Nightfall.”
Astounding Science Fiction,
September 1941 issue. Cited from Isaac Asimov,
The Complete Short Stories
I, New York: Bantam, 1990, pp. 330–62.

———.
Foundation.
New York: Bantam, 1951.

———.
Prelude to Foundation.
New York: Bantam, 1988.