The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (117 page)

12.
P. Kennedy,
The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860–1914
(London/Boston, 1980), chs. 16–17.

13.
Idem,
Strategy and Diplomacy
, p. 46; Keylor,
Twentieth-Century World
, pp. 27ff.

14.
Amery comment, on H. J. Mackinder, “The Geographical Pivot of History,”
Geographical Journal
, vol. 23, no. 6 (April 1904), p. 441.

15.
Thucydides,
The Peleponnesian War
(Harmondsworth, Mddsx., 1954), p. 49. For a discussion of this view, see R. Gilpin,
War and Change in World Politics
(Cambridge, 1981).

16.
Landes,
Unbound Prometheus
, p. 259.

17.
Figures taken from the “Correlates of War” print-out data made available through the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research at the University of Michigan.

18.
C. E. Black et al.,
The Modernization of Japan and Russia: A Comparative Study
(New York, 1975), pp. 6–7; and, for the now classic account, W. W. Rostow,
The Process of Economic Growth
(2nd edn., Oxford, 1960).

19.
Ibid.

20.
Figures from Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980,” pp. 294, 302.

21.
“Correlates of War” print-out data.

22.
Ibid.

23.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” pp. 292, 299.

24.
Ibid., pp. 296, 304.

25.
C. Barnett,
The Collapse of British Power
(London/New York, 1972), p. xi.

26.
Wright,
Study of War
, pp. 670–71.

27.
Ibid. The 1890 total for the United States is given as only 40,000 by Wright, which is clearly a mistake.

28.
See pp. 188–89 above.

29.
see Table 14 above. Italian history generally in this period is covered in D. Mack Smith,
Italy, A Modern History
(Ann Arbor, 1969), pp. 101ff; C. Seton Watson,
Italy from Liberalism to Fascism
(London, 1967), pp. 129–412. It is noticeable that there is no “Italy” section in the
New Cambridge Modern History
, vol. 11,
1870–98
, and only a few pages, 482–87, in vol. 12,
1898–1945
.

30.
Kemp,
Industrialization in Nineteenth-Century Europe, ch
. 6.

31.
See the references in A. Tamborra, “The Rise of Italian Industry and the Balkans,”
Journal of European Economic History
, vol. 3, no. 1 (1974), pp. 87–120. Other useful studies are G. Mori, “The Genesis of Italian Industrialization,”
Journal of European Economic History
, vol. 4, no. 1 (Spring 1975), pp. 79–94; idem, “The Process of Industrialization in Italy: Some Suggestions, Problems and Questions,”
Journal of European Economic History
, vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 1979), pp. 60–82; Trebilcock,
Industrialization of the Continental Powers 1780–1914, ch
. 5; Pollard,
Peaceful Conquest
, pp. 229–32; Seton-Watson,
Italy from Liberalism to Fascism
, pp. 284ff; S. B. Clough,
The Economic History of Modern Italy, 1830–1914
(New York, 1964); L. Cafagua, “The Industrial Revolution in
Italy 1830–1914,” in C. Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 4, pt. 1,
The Emergence of Industrial Societies
, pp. 287–325.

32.
A. S. Milward and S. B. Saul,
The Development of the Economies of Continental Europe 1850–1914
(Cambridge, Mass., 1977), pp. 253ff; J. S. Cohen, “Financing Industrialization in Italy, 1894–1914: The Partial Transformation of a Late-Comer,”
Journal of Economic History
, vol. 27 (1967), pp. 363–82; V. Castronovo, “The Italian Takeoff: A Critical Re-examination of the Problem,”
Journal of Italian History
, vol. 1 (1978), pp. 492–510.

33.
R.J.B. Bosworth,
Italy, the Least of the Great Powers: Italian Foreign Policy Before the First World War
(Cambridge, 1979), p. 4.

34.
See the interesting (and thoroughly depressing) collection of articles on “Italian Military Efficiency” in
Journal of Strategic Studies
, vol. 5, no. 2 (1982), pp. 248ff; J. Gooch, “Italy Before 1915: The Quandary of the Vulnerable,” in E. R. May (ed.),
Knowing One’s Enemies: Intelligence Assessment Before the Two World Wars
(Princeton, N.J., 1984), pp. 205ff; J. Whittam,
The Politics of the Italian Army 1861–1918
(London, 1977), passim; and idem, “War Aims and Strategy: The Italian Government and High Command 1914–1919,” in B. Hunt and A. Preston (eds.),
War Aims and Strategic Policy in the Great War
(London, 1977), pp. 85–104.

35.
P. Halpern,
The Mediterranean Naval Situation, 1908–1914
(Cambridge, Mass., 1971), ch. 7; A. J. Marder,
The Anatomy of British Sea Power
(Hamden, Conn., 1964 reprint), pp. 174–75.

36.
Bosworth,
Italy, the Least of the Great Powers
, passim. See also idem,
Italy and the Approach of the First World War
(London, 1983); Lowe and Marzari,
Italian Foreign Policy, 1870–1940
, passim.

37.
P. Kennedy, “The First World War and the International Power System,” in S. E. Miller (ed.),
Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War
(Princeton, N.J., 1985), p. 15.

38.
W. R. Keylor,
The Twentieth-Century World
, pp. 14–15. For other general accounts, see
NCMH
, vol. 12, ch. 12; I. Nish,
Japan’s Foreign Policy, 1869–1942
(London, 1978); R. Storry,
Japan and the Decline of the West in Asia 1894–1943
(London, 1979).

39.
The political and economic modernization of Japan is briefly covered in R. Storry,
A History of Modern Japan
(Harmondsworth, Mddsx., 1982 edn.), ch. 5; and in much more detail in W. H. Beasley,
The Meiji Restoration
(Stanford, Calif., 1972); E. H. Norman,
Japan’s Emergence as a Modern State
(New York, 1940); T. Smith,
Political Change and Industrial Development in Japan: Government Enterprise 1868–1880
(Stanford, Calif., 1955).

40.
The economic aspects of Japanese modernization can be followed in G. S. Allen,
A Short Economic History of Japan
(London, 1981 edn.), chs. 2–5; L. Klein and K. Ohkawa (eds.),
Economic Growth: The Japanese Experience Since the Meiji Era
(Holmwood, Ill., 1968); Rostow,
World Economy
, pp. 416–25; K. Ohkawa and H. Rosovsky,
Japanese Economic Growth
(Stanford, Calif., 1973).

41.
E. B. Potter (ed.),
Sea Power: A Naval History
(Annapolis, Md., 1981), pp. 166–168; Glover,
Warfare from Waterloo to Mons
, pp. 181–84.

42.
Quoted in Storry,
Japan and the Decline of the West in Asia
, p. 30.

43.
On which see now I. Nish,
The Origin of the Russo-Japanese War
(London, 1985), passim. The conflict itself is best described in J. N. Westwood,
Russia Against Japan, 1904–5: A New Look at the Russo-Japanese War
(London, 1986), and is also covered in Storry,
Japan and the Decline of the West in Asia
, chs. 4–5; S. Okamoto,
The Japanese Oligarchy and the Russo-Japanese War
(New York, 1970); J. A. White,
The Diplomacy of the Russo-Japanese War
(Princeton, N.J., 1964). The war at sea is briefly covered in Potter (ed.),
Sea Power
, pp.
168ff, and P. Padfield,
The Battleship Era
(London, 1972), pp. 167ff; on land, P. Waiden,
The Short Victorious War: A History of the Russo-Japanese War, 1904–5
(New York, 1974).

44.
See A. J. Sherman, “German-Jewish Bankers in World Politics: The Financing of the Russo-Japanese War,”
Leo Baeck Institute Yearbook
, vol. 28 (1983), pp. 59–73.

45.
Cited in Kennedy,
Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism
, p. 464.

46.
For general accounts of Germany’s economic growth, see Fisher,
War of Illusions
, pt. 1; Calleo,
The German Problem Reconsidered, ch
. 4; N. Stone,
Europe Transformed 1878–1919
(London, 1983), pp. 159ff; W. G. Hoffmann,
Das Wachstum der Deutschen Wirtschaft seit der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts
, (Berlin, 1965); W. O. Henderson,
The Rise of German Industrial Power, 1834–1914
, (Berkeley/Los Angeles, 1972), pt. 3; M. Kitchen,
The Political Economy of Germany 1815–1914
(London, 1978).

47.
I took this figure from p. 2 of John Gooch’s paper “Italy During the First World War,” for the forthcoming first volume
of Military Effectiveness
, eds. A. Millett and W. Murray.

48.
See the figures in Calleo,
German Problem Reconsidered
, pp. 66, 68.

49.
Quoted in J. Steinberg, “The Copenhagen Complex,”
Journal of Contemporary History
, vol. 1, pt. 3 (1966), p. 26.

50.
Langer,
Diplomacy of Imperialism
, p. 96; and see again Gollwitzer,
Geschichte des weltpolitischen Denkens
, vol. 2, pp. 83–252; idem,
Europe in the Age of Imperialism
(London, 1969), passim; W. Baumgart,
Imperialism: The Idea and Reality of British and French Colonial Expansion 1880–1914
(Oxford, 1982), pt. 3.

51.
For these quotations, see respectively, Kennedy,
Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism
, p. 311; J. C. Röhl, “A Document of 1892 on Germany, Prussia, and Poland,”
Historical Journal
, vol. 7 (1964), pp. 144ff; Fisher,
War of Illusions, ch
. 3.

52.
I take this term from H.-U. Wehler,
Bismarck und der Imperialismus
(Cologne, 1969), pt. 3, pp. 112ff.

53.
See the assessments in A. J. Marder,
From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow: The Royal Navy in the Fisher Period
, vol. 1,
The Road to War 1904–1914
(London, 1961), ch. 13; Kennedy,
Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery
, chs. 8–9.

54.
Kennedy,
Strategy and Diplomacy
, p. 160.

55.
B. F. Schulte,
Die deutsche Armee
(Düsseldorf, 1977); V. R. Berghahn,
Germany and the Approach of War in 1914
(London/New York, 1974), chs. 1 and 6. For good examples of the many fatuous underestimations of German military power (especially as compared with Russia and France), see P. Towle, “The European Balance of Power in 1914,”
Army Quarterly and Defense Journal
, vol. 104 (1974), pp. 333–62.

56.
All of these figures from Wright,
Study of War
, pp. 670–71.

57.
J. K. Tanenbaum, “French Estimates of Germany’s Operational War Plans,” in May (ed.),
Knowing One’s Enemies
, p. 162.

58.
Calleo,
German Problem Reconsidered
, introduction.

59.
Kennedy,
Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism
, p. 311.

60.
See again Gilpin,
War and Change in World Politics
, passim.

61.
For compelling evidence of this, see the articles in J.G.C. Röhl and N. Sombart (eds.),
Kaiser Wilhelm II: New Interpretations
(Cambridge, 1982).

62.
Quoted in G. A. Craig,
Germany 1866–1965
(Oxford, 1978), p. 336. There is good evidence of this confusion of purpose in I. N. Lambi,
The Navy and German Power Politics 1862–1914
(London/Boston, 1984).

63.
Fisher,
War of Illusions
, passim; Berghahn, Germany
and the Approach of War
, passim.

64.
This is explored further in P. Kennedy (ed.),
The War Plans of the Great Powers 1880–1914
(London/Boston 1979), introduction.

65.
Calleo,
German Problem Reconsidered
, p. 5.