The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (132 page)

52.
This is perhaps best argued in Vogel,
Japan as Number One;
but see also his article “Pax Nipponica?”
Foreign Affairs
, vol. 64, no. 4 (Spring 1986), pp. 752–67; and H. Kahn,
The Emerging Japanese Superstate
(London, 1971). For a contrary argument, see “High Technology: Clash of the Titans,”
Economist
, Aug. 23, 1986, pp. 318ff, which points to the U.S. advantages.

53.
See again Smith et al.,
Asia’s New Industrial World;
and Linder,
Pacific Century
, passim.

54.
For what follows, see Linder,
Pacific Century
, pp. 107ff; E. Wilkinson,
Misunderstanding: Europe versus Japan
(Tokyo, 1981); “Is It Too Late to Stop the Slide to Protectionism?”
Times
(London), Jan. 14, 1982, p. 15; Olsen,
US.-Japan Strategic Reciprocity, ch
. 4.

55.
“Japan Frets About Tomorrow,”
New York Times
, April 30, 1986, pp. D1-D2.

56.
“Obstacles to Change in Japan,”
New York Times
, April 29, 1986, p. Dl.

57.
See the figures in the
CIA Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, pp. 50–54; the weekly
Economist
index on commodity prices; and Drucker, “Changed World Economy,” passim.

58.
See the useful summary in R. B. Reich, “Japan in the Chips,”
New York Review of Books
, July 5, 1985; and “Silicon Valley Has a Big Chip About Japan,”
Economist
, March 20, 1986, pp. 63–64.

59.
“Big Japanese Gain in Computers Seen,”
New York Times
, Feb. 13, 1984, pp. Al, A19; “Will Japan Leapfrog America on Superfast Computers?”
Economist
, March 6, 1982, p. 95.

60.
“Japan Sets Next Target,”
Sunday Times
(London), Nov. 29, 1981.

61.
“Westinghouse/Mitsubishi,”
Economist
, Feb. 6, 1982, p. 65.

62.
R. B. Reich, “A Faustian Bargain with the Japanese,”
New York Times
, April
6, 1986, business section, p. 2; “Japanese All Set for Take-off,”
Times
(London), Nov. 11, 1981; Smith et al.,
Asia’s New Industrial World
, pp. 21–24.

63.
The quotation is from Vogel, “Pax Nipponica,” p. 753. More generally, see “Japanese Technology,”
Times
(London), June 14, 1983, “Special Report,” pp. i-viii. The more successful Japanese exploitation of robotics technology is outlined in B. J. Feder, “New Challenge in Automation,”
New York Times
, Oct. 30, 1986, p. D2.

64.
“Reconsider Japan,”
Economist
, April 26, 1986, pp. 19–22; but see again Johnson,
MITI and the Japanese Miracle;
Vogel,
Japan as Number One
, pp. 70ff.

65.
Vogel, “Pax Nipponica,” p. 754.

66.
See the tables in
Economist
, July 9, 1983, “Japan Survey” section, p. 7; and Pempel, “Japanese Foreign Economic Policy,” pp. 171–72.

67.
Economist
, April 26, 1986, p. 22; Vogel, “Pax Nipponica,” p. 753; idem,
Japan as Number One, ch
. 7; Smith et al.,
Asia’s New Industrial World
, pp. 13ff.

68.
For example, S. Kamata,
Japan in the Passing Lane
(New York, 1984); J. Taylor,
Shadows of the Rising Sun: A Critical View of the “Japanese Miracle”
(New York, 1984); “There Can be Clouds Too,”
Economist
, July 9, 1983, “Japan Survey.”

69.
D. Halberstam, “Can We Rise to the Japanese Challenge?”
Parade
, Oct. 9, 1983, pp. 4–5; and the even more alarming piece by T. H. White, “The Danger from Japan,”
New York Times Magazine
, July 28, 1985.

70.
“The New Global Top Banker: Tokyo and Its Mighty Money,”
New York Times
, April 27, 1986, pp. 1, 16.

71.
F. Marsh,
Japanese Overseas Investment
(Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1983);
Times
(London), April 22, 1983.

72.
For these figures and forecasts, see “Japan Investing Enormous Sums of Cash Abroad,”
New York Times
, March 11, 1986, pp. Al, D12; “The New Global Top Banker,”
New York Times
, April 27, 1986, pp. 1, 16.

73.
“Japan’s Investment Bankers Head for the Big Wide World,”
Economist
, April 19, 1986, pp. 91–94; D. Burstein, “When the Yen Leaves the Sky It May Capture the Earth,”
New York Times
, Sept. 3, 1986, p. A27.

74.
“New Global Top Banker,” p. 1.

75.
See the table in Linder,
Pacific Century
, p. 12, quoting the
Japan in the Year 2000
study.

76.
See CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, p. 33, fn. b.

77.
“The Yen Also Rises,”
New York Times
, March 5, 1986, p. D2.

78.
See again the very pertinent study by Olsen,
U.S.-Japan Strategic Reciprocity
, passim.

79.
See the figures in
Military Balance 1985–86
, pp. 170–72.

80.
Olsen,
U.S.-Japan Strategic Reciprocity
, passim; Z. Brzezinski, “Japan Should Increase Spending for Defense,”
New Haven Register
, Aug. 16, 1985, “Forum,” p. 15.

81.
There is a good flavor of the Japanese antiwar movement in Storry,
History of Modern Japan, ch
. 11. See also
Economist
, Aug. 16, 1985, pp. 21–22.

82.
Olsen,
U.S.-Japan Strategic Reciprocity
, p. 149.

83.
See the discussion in Reynolds, “China in the International Economy,” in Harding (ed.),
China’s Foreign Relations in the 1980s, ch
. 3 (and espec, p. 86, from where the quotation comes); Scalapino, “China and Northeast Asia,” in Solomon (ed.),
China Factor
, espec. pp. 193ff. On the other hand, see Taylor,
Sino-Japanese Axis
, passim.

84.
Scalapino, “China and Northeast Asia,” p. 200. See also the comments on Japanese external policy in “Japan Survey,”
Economist
, Dec. 7, 1985, pp. lOff.

85.
See again Gruner,
Die deutsche Frage
, espec. ch. 4.

86.
I take these totals from
The Military Balance 1985–86
, pp. 40–43, 46–54.

87.
CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, p. 37.

88.
The unemployment figures were taken from
The Economist Diary, 1984
, p. 44. For the rising social expenditures, see the OECD report of March 1985,
Social Expenditures 1960–1990
.

89.
Quoted in Linder,
Pacific Century
, p. 108.

90.
See the review article, “Down to Earth: A Survey of the West German Economy,”
Economist
, Feb. 4, 1984.

91.
Calleo,
German Problem Reconsidered
, and Gruner,
Die Deutsche Frage
, are best here; but see also DePorte,
Europe Between the Superpowers
, pp. 180ff.

92.
W. Gruner, “Der Deutsche Bund—Modell fur eine Zwischenlösung?”
Politik und Kultur
, vol. 9 (1982), no. 5.

93.
P. Dibb,
The Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower
(London, 1986), pp. 43–44.

94.
The literature on European defense and nuclear weapons is enormous. I have relied upon A. J. Pierre (ed.),
Nuclear Weapons in Europe
(New York, 1984); the debate provoked by M. Bundy et al., “Nuclear Weapons and the Atlantic Alliance,”
Foreign Affairs
, vol. 6, no. 4 (Spring 1982), pp. 753–68; and by
Strengthening Conventional Deterrence in Europe: Proposals for the 1980s
(New York, 1983); J. D. Steinbrunner and L. V. Segal (eds.),
Alliance Security: NATO and the No-First-Use Question
(Washington, D.C., 1983); G. Prins (ed.),
The Nuclear Crisis Reader
(New York, 1984).

95.
Military Balance 1985–86
, p. 49.

96.
“West German Defense: Early Warnings,”
Economist
, June 29, 1985, p. 46.

97.
See again the good discussion in Calleo,
German Problem Reconsidered
, chs. 8–9; and J. Dean, “Directions in Inner-German Relations,”
Orbis
, vol. 29, no. 3 (Fall 1985), pp. 609–32; and G. F. Treverton,
Making the Alliance Work: The United States and Europe
(Ithaca, N.Y., 1985), passim.

98.
“When the Oil Runs Out,”
Economist
, Oct. 19,1985, p. 65; “After the Oil Years,”
Economist
, March 6, 1985, p. 57.

99.
“Manufacturing,”
Economist
, Sept. 28, 1985, p. 57.

100.
See again Gamble,
Britain in Decline;
Kirby,
Decline of British Economic Power Since 1870;
Eatwell,
Whatever Happened to Britain;
and S. Pollard,
The Wasting of the British Economy
(London, 1982).

101.
“After the Oil Years,”
Economist
, March 6, 1986, p. 57.

102.
A. Walters,
Britain’s Industrial Renaissance
(London, 1986)—Walters having been, of course, Mrs. Thatcher’s economic adviser.

103.
“Scientists’ Lament,”
Economist
, Jan. 18, 1986, p. 16.

104.
See again the statistics in
Military Balance 1985–86
.

105.
The share of world GNP is calculated from CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, p. 32. For a devastating attack upon this attempt to maintain an overextended defense posture, see A. Barnett, “The Dangerous Dream,”
New Statesman
, June 17, 1983, pp. 9–11. Less critical, but equally sobering, is “Yes, But How Do We Pay for It?”
Times
(London), June 15, 1983.

106.
“Navy Wins War of the Frigates,”
The Sunday Times
(London), Oct. 17, 1982; C. Wain, “The Navy’s Future”,
The Listener
, Aug. 19, 1982.

107.
See
The Economist’s
frequent assaults upon it for that reason: e.g., “Trident: Bad Money After Bad,” Nov. 3, 1984, p. 34; “Not Trident,” Feb. 9, 1985, p. 16. The government’s rationale for Trident is in
Statement on the Defense Estimates, 1985
, vol. 1 (Cmnd. 9430–1).

108.
“Message to the New Defense Secretary: Think Small,”
Sunday Times
(London), Jan. 12, 1986, p. 16; see also “Defense Budget Costs Go over the Top,”
Daily Telegraph
, Dec. 10, 1985. There are excellent surveys of the problem—
and various proposals to deal with it—in J. Baylis (ed.),
Alternative Approaches to British Defense Policy
(London, 1983), passim.

109.
For French defense policy, see generally M. M. Harrison,
The Reluctant Ally: France and Atlantic Security
(Baltimore, Md., 1981); R. F. Laird,
France, the Soviet Union, and the Nuclear Weapons Issue
(Boulder, Col., 1985); and D. S. Yost,
Frances Deterrent Posture
(Adelphi Papers, nos. 194 and 195).

110.
“France” survey,
Economist
, Feb. 9, 1985, p. 8.

111.
See, in particular, the work by P. Lellouche,
L’avenir de la guerre
(Paris, 1985), nicely discussed in D. S. Yost, “Radical Change in French Defense Policy,”
Survival
, vol. 28 (Jan./Feb., 1986), pp. 53–68; R. F. Laird, “The French Strategic Dilemma,”
Orbis
, vol. 28, no. 2 (Summer 1984), pp. 307–28.

112.
R. S. Rudney, “Mitterrand’s New Atlanticism: Evolving French Attitudes toward NATO,”
Orbis
, vol. 28, no. 1 (Spring 1984), p. 99, citing Aron.